iCharts Discussions

[sanmen]

Vivek/Harish: I dont think its H&S as Head formation is incomplete..did notice this yesterday but i feel the pattern didnt get completed...

Further H&S is generally (strictly by definition) is to be found in UPtrends...which we are not in right now.....

infact we were making a gr8 Inv H&S earlier (i felt so ) but with the recent downfall its voilated i guess...

Keep up the gud work friends...its really gud to read such posts!!!

cheers!

Sandeep :

[sanmen]

Vivek/Harish: I dont think its H&S as Head formation is incomplete..did notice this yesterday but i feel the pattern didnt get completed...

Further H&S is generally (strictly by definition) is to be found in UPtrends...which we are not in right now.....

infact we were making a gr8 Inv H&S earlier (i felt so ) but with the recent downfall its voilated i guess...

Keep up the gud work friends...its really gud to read such posts!!!

cheers!

Sandeep :

[sanmen]

Vivek/Harish: I dont think its H&S as Head formation is incomplete..did notice this yesterday but i feel the pattern didnt get completed...

Further H&S is generally (strictly by definition) is to be found in UPtrends...which we are not in right now.....

infact we were making a gr8 Inv H&S earlier (i felt so ) but with the recent downfall its voilated i guess...

Keep up the gud work friends...its really gud to read such posts!!!

cheers!

Sandeep :

[hdobhal]

Dear Friends,

I am posting here the latest Nifty chart and again will write something about what the EOD chart is saying.

The chart is just a continuation of my first chart, just in the sense that there are two trend lines that are still there.

Let me come to the point straight away. If we see the major downtrend line - Line 1, it proved to be a good resistance and for the time being, looks like it will be very difficult to break it. Let me introduce you another downtrend line - Line 2, that has been drawn joining the high of 4th Feb and the high of 27th Feb. This line extends to meet and cross the erstwhile uptrend line - Line 3 on 12th-13th May, showing it was also there standing as a "support" along with Line 3 on 13th may.

Now, let me come to the latest downtrend that in my view started on 20th may. If we connect the high of 20th May to next high on 29th May and draw a line, it looks a perfect short term downtrend line, I named it Line 5. This line when extended has proven good resistance in last few days.

The Line 4 is just a tentative "target line" of this ongoing downtrend.

Interestingly, yesterday Nifty broke Line 2, which was respected on 12th May. And... today Nifty even opened below Line 2 !!! and made a recent new low.

These all observations are pointing towards a bleak situation. However, as it looks oversold and showed some signs of pull-back towards today's closing, I am considering an upmove tomorrow if all goes well. Also, for Candlestick lovers, Nifty made a good hammer today, which also supports some upside.

So, considering there will be an upmove tomorrow, I find Nifty to face resistance first at about 4750 - 60 (the orange dot on Line 2). This is because, I think the Line 2 can act as a resistance now.

The second resistance in my view should be 4830 - 40 for tomorrow and 4815 - 20 (see orange dot on Line 5) for the day after. This is at recent downtrend line - Line 5.

There can be more resistance areas which can be calculated depending on other tools, but I'll look at these two as most important.

Nifty can be in buy mode only after it closes above the main downtrend line - Line 1 (see the green star on Line 1). The level for that is around 5000.

I conclude my analysis with the above and invite comments from you fellow members.

Thanks & Best Regards
Harish Dobhal

Disclaimer: The above analysis is just an analysis and not a trading guide. Please consult a professional adviser before trading in stock markets.

PS: The Indicators are as following:
above - Volume
Middle - OBV
Bottom - RSI

[shrii]

harish bhai, thanks for the incisive analysis and the effort you have taken to post your views.

[saikat]

Harish,

Great stuff and even greater is the effort you've put in to post such things in forum.

As usual I've been drawing the same lines and would request you to add 'Line 6' to your chart which may act as final support (and now I've reason to believe that we are going to go there). This is the line you draw by joining Jan 22nd and Mar 18th lows (ie 2 major lows till Jan) and extend - it will meet your 'Line 4' around 4500.
All indications are there as off now that that level is not far away; only to be seen whether that makes the final bottom - or we break below it and forget the Bull run for next ??? years...

Regards,

Saikat

[rameshraja]

Mr Harish Dhobal

Good analysis as usual. If you look at charts of many stocks from Banking to realities all have come under sell mode. Now many have forgetten the new highs and also for 5400 and 5600 levels but calling for shots of 200 points bounce . <LOL>


If you observe charts of many of the frontline stocks, all have come into sell mode and most of them are perfectly trending on downside making lower highs and lower lows. The time tested indicators like RSI and MACD have all exhibiting sell along with momentum indicators as of now.


Keep writing in Forum and I appreciate your openess in posting your views in the Forum which is recorded here than few of the shout box Tigers who are only capable of criticising others by forming a coterie of people around them. I feel agitated when someone criticises others view and if the critics are great players in market, I openly challenge them to post their Trade confirmations in Forum.

Best wishes

C T RAMESH RAJA

[marne.vivek]

hi all,

Firstly. Sanmen / Harish sorry for late reply first, due to rains in pune, electricity was shut down. Anyways, i do think it is as well not such a power H & S pattern, and though if it was, its tgt got achieved yesterday at the bottom by hammer.

Moving on considering the yesterday's rise, i am compelled to think of DOUBLE BOTTOM chart formation, as in the following pic.

Chart: 40 days 60 min candles

Certain other cues that can be see here include, the Index streching the bollinger band out. Plus, since only two indicators available could not show RSI, RSI had already entered oversold and has come out. Slow Stoch has given buy signal.

Vivek

[hdobhal]

Dear Shrii, Saikatnandy, Rameshraja Sir and Marne.Vivek,

My sincere thanks to allof you for replying.

Saikat: I just missed it, thanks for reminding. As there is an important resistance line, equally important is the support line as mentioned by you.
Please keep on reminding me such things.

RR Sir: First my thanks sir. Sir I agree with what you say about "SOME" people in SB. In fact I've started avoiding giving my view there as some people there are slaves of their EGO and can't see anywhere other than their levels
Also, Sir, my request is please restart posting your analysis along with CAM levels. Your analysis is more important than anything else

Marne: Ok , I got it. I always look down at your outlook and observations seriously.

Market Opening shortly, so I need to hit the submit button

Thanks & Best Regards
Harish Dobhal

[ramtrade]

Hi Harish,

Great analysis with very good details of the resistance lines, details and time taken to write your analysis.

Thanks
Ramesh

[hdobhal]

Thanks Ramesh Gupta ji

I see u here after a lot of time, where were u?

[hdobhal]

Attention all readers, I request you to kindly visit SANMEN's post. That post is eye opening for all who have missed a formation of H&S pattern on Nifty and today the neckline broken

[marne.vivek]

hi,

i think i see a continuation bearish flag pattern..

just a view..

15 min candles nifty

[hdobhal]

Yeah Marne, this you also told during trading and I agree on it.

Good observation

[rsnagesh]

HELO SIR,

GOOD AND CONTINUOUS HOME WORK SIR. KEEP IT UP. BUT ONE THING YOU COULD REMEMBER SIR. PL. KEEP THE TIME SLOT IN THE CONTINUOUS CHART OF BETWEEN 4TH WEEK OF MAY 2006 TO 3RD WEEK OF JUNE 2006 AND REFRESH YOUR BEARISH HOME WORK YOU WILL GET TO KNOW THAT WE ARE GOING TO COME ACROSS BOTTOMING OUT STRATEGY WHICH HAS REALISTICALLY HAPPENED EXACTLY ON 24-07-2006 AT A NIFTY BAND OF 2878.25 AND CLOSED AT
2985.85. THEREAFTER, NO LOOKING BACK AND THE BEARISH KIND OF VIEW. THE SAME THING WAS HISTORICALLY REPEATED AND RECORDED EXACTLY ON 02-04-2007 AT A NIFTY'S INTRADAY LOW POINT OF 3617 AND CLOSED AT 3633.60 AS AGAINST THE PREVIOUS BOTTOM OF BETWEEN 3554.50 TO 3573.85 WHICH GOT ATTEMPTED IN SO MANY OCCASIONS. THEREAFTER, NO QUESTION OF LOOKING BACK TO BE IN THE BEARISH KIND OF APPROACH. IF YOU LOOK AT THE CURRENT TREND IN THE SAME MANNER YOU WOULD ALSO GET CONVINCED IN SIR. THE BEARISH KIND OF OUTLOOK IS ONLY TO AN EXTENT OF THIS WEEK END OR CAN BE CONTINUED ONE WEEK MORE SIR. IF YOU HAPPENED TO LOOK IN THE SAME MANNER BY ADOPTING IN A WEEKLY OR A MONTHLY PATTERN YOU WILL GET CONVINCED IN TO MAXIMUM EXTENT SIR.

SO, MY FINAL COMMENT IS, PL DO INTERPRET SIMULTANEOUSLY USING WEEKLY OR MONTHLY CHART ALSO AFTER HAVING INTERPRETED IN SHORT DURATIONS OF 15 MINUTES AND DAILY PATTERNS.

PL KEEP YOUR GOOD WORK CONTINUED IN THE NEAR FUTURE ALSO.

WITH REGARDS.

(R.S. NAGESH)