iCharts Discussions

[daytrader007]

dear hdo, good! I do not read your analysis. I would have read some of your charts. I do not read because I want to trade based on my analysis and in un-biased way. Somehow i read your last analysis today and felt that language a bit harsh. So felt like telling you. Anyway it's upto you.

Though keep up your good work!

regards
Swapan

[hdobhal]

Dear Friends,

Here I go again... well, today was a day for bears, really, I say it despite a good recovery in the end. OR to put larger picture, it has so far been a month for bears. They have been on total rampage throughout the last few trading sessions and have almost killed bulls. Some say the lowest point has come, well it may be, but, I don't think the worries for bulls are over. There may be one two odd up moves but still we have to witness a situation where bulls show some power.

The important levels of 4628, 4600, 4550, 4500, 4448 and today finally even 4400 have been broken. The only thing that favours bulls is the market is in oversold zone - so at most a relief rally is due. And I doubt even that.

If we come to the chart, today Nifty was trading well below the final support line at 4500 (by joining the Jan low and Mar low and extending it). For a closer look, look at the previous chart (Line 5).

Coming to the rare hope of a reversal, Nifty needs to close above Line 2 and Line 4 first which comes at around 4720-30 levels. Looks too far away.
After that it has to close above Line 1, which is the biggest down trend line. This comes at around 4960 levels for next few sessions. That looks like moon from here now !!!

Also, I respect RAMESHRAJA SIR's observation of 89 EMA on Nifty weekly. For two consecutive sessions, Nifty is closing below that. I think, this week's closing will be way below that mark.

With this I conclude my analysis for Nifty. Pls keep reading next paragraph.

I am very disappointed by the absence of RR sir in SB. The more painful thing is He has also stopped posting in Forum. I request all readers to kindly post your appeal for RR sir to return to the SB and Forum.

Disclosure : same as last one.

Thanks and Best Regards
Harish Dobhal

P.S. - I maintain my view for Gut Feeling and do not regret my words. I feel its not good to have Gut Feeling when trading.

[shanki99]

Harish

No doubt a great work...

one suggestion from my side is that why cant u put it in bullet points so that it looks crisp and easy for the readers to get to the point quickly.

Rgds
Shanki99

[hdobhal]

Thanks Shanky, I appreciate your encouragement and good suggestion. I'll follow that

Harish

[ramtrade]

Harish,

Good analysis as usual. Out of $17 billion which FII's have bought in '07 they have sold $5 billion until now. Today's rally at the end is due to the DII buying support. Rupee hits 2-wk flow touching Rs 43. The oil subsidy is weiging on the fiscal defecit which is in turn putting pressure on Rupee. What are the long term solutions to this problem of oil subsidy? Is Oil subsidy good for the economy and long term sustainable growth?

Regarding the Nifty, see the PE levels....remember there are still couple more to announce their results.

S&P CNX NIFTY
P/E = 18.94
P/B = 4.40
Div. yield = 1.22

These ratios were calculated as on April. Dont have the May & June numbers though...but i guess we can arrive at a rough no.s if take into consideration the may and June fall. As per Nagesh sir calculation...i guess we might be heading towards P/E of 15. The more matured markets like the US, Europe, Japan, Singapore etc...are at PE multiple of around 10.

Now how much further down would FII's want to go before they find it interesting and compelling to invest in our market i am not sure. DII have been supporting our markets. Had it not been for DII's we would have touched even more bottom.

Should we start looking at the fundamental good stocks from here....not sure if i have that knowledge and future outlook to answer this very important question. Personally i have started accumulating slowly. May be i am too early to start buying in small quantities. But i would like to as i cannot catch the perfect bottom. I would like to start in small quantities in different intervals so that it averages my overall cost of ownership.

Look for stocks that are fundamentally strong with good management and sound policies. At the end of the day, it boils down to how is the company rewarding it's shareholders after it makes good profits.

CLSA has given a statement that they would be compelled to bargain hunt once Nifty reaches 4200 levels.

References:
1. http://in.news.yahoo.com/reuters_ids_new/20080610/r_t_rtrs_bs/tbs-rupee-falls-to-2-wk-low-on-outflow-f-796e4e8.html
2. nseindia.com
3. http://bseindia.com/about/st_key/index_ratios.asp

Thanks
Ramesh

[vjarora]

RR Sir

Your minor presence in SB and comments had always helps us to understand the things and enhance our skills.

Its your humble approach and helping nature that makes you so special.

I hope that you will join very soon.

Cheers
VJ

[bpsingh]

I always looked for Mr. Ramesh Raja's views and comments on market. I am quite disappointed by not finding his posts in the Forum.
I appeal to Mr. Ramesh Raja to come to the Forum and share his valuable views about the market/stocks.

[hdobhal]

Dear Friends,

Good to see you coming out and appealing for RR sir. Thanks bpsingh and vjarora.

Dear Ramtrade,

Thanks for reply. As for the P/E ratio, check historical values and surprisingly PE never remains for long at 15, which is considered as fair value in good market. In bear markets PEs are as low as 10 or more and in bull markets in 20-25 range !!! ( I say about extremes).

So, given our market is right now is a bear market, you can safely assume that PE can even go to 10 or below

Thanks & Best Regards
Harish

[hdobhal]

Dear Friends,

Before I go to sleep, my humble advice - don't get fooled by any relief rally, my advice is to take any decision which is backed by sound technicals.

Good Night,

Harish Dobhal

[gudd007]

[hdobhal]

GUDD,

Very good phrase chosen - "GAMBLING INSTINCT"

It definitely is gambling instict.

Thanks
Harish

[hdobhal]

Dear Friends,

My sincere appeal to all of you, kindly vote in Jimmi's post. The question is for bottom.

Thanks
Harish

[gudd007]

Hope it doesn't change with I am long this month/year and short next month/year.

Or

Whether my positions are different from what I have stated in the forum.

[hdobhal]

Dear Friends,

Today I am presenting here my views on the long term of Nifty.

Please refer to the attached chart for your reference. I have drawn Only two trend lines and the two are speaking volumes. Now let me come to the point one by one :

* In my chart, I start a line joining the low of 25th April, 2003 and the low of 17th May 2004. On extending it, I get a nice Long Term Trend Line which had been holding for so long (The lower line).

* I draw another line above it - I chose low of 24th June 2004 (in fact I could also chose low of 21st July 2003) and low of 2nd May 2005 and extend the line. This also gives another very nice Not-So-Long Term trend line.

* On the upper line, Nifty took support and moved up on six occasions (1 to 6).

* Whenever Nifty failed to take support on the upper line, it fell and took support on the lower line - The Bigger Long Term Support Trend Line. As you can see, Nifty took support on this line on three occasions and it held, saving bulls always.

* Now look at the upper line, it was broken in start of March month this year and it took support on lower line in the same month. People were almost sure that Nifty has found a good bottom and a nice up move started which took Nifty to 5299 levels.
If you notice, this latest up move found resistance at the upper line and started falling from there. Now the last hopes of bulls were on the Bigger support of Lower Long Term Trend Line. But on 4th June, Nifty broke the ultimate Long Term support and is trading way below that.

Come on friends, this is not a small thing. Nifty has created a Historical Turnaround in Jan this year and has now confirmed that it is indeed a BEAR MARKET.

A picture is worth a thousand words...

Your Novice Analyst
Harish Dobhal

[ramtrade]

Harish,

How long do you think this bear market will continue...? What if our corporate/companies hold on to the growth rates in topline and bottom line and it turns out that Index EPS has grown in fact....

Thanks
Ramesh