iCharts Discussions

[hdobhal]

Dear Ramtrade,

I think it is beyond the limits of best analysts to tell the answer but a general view says, it shd be over in max two years. Well, half year has already passed, so let's hope for the best. By this please do not think that this is my guess. What I say is what I read in different economist views.

Eliotticians can be of good help as EW can define good market cycles. I think Mayurnsk and Rocky5iitr are best Eliotticians who can help.

I request Mayur and Rocky to kindly guide here.

Thanks
Harish

[sumeetsavla]

Harish,
Very nice views. Have read them for some days and agree with most of it.
Regarding resistance at 5299 - i think of it as having attempted to go past 200 day SMA and failed to stay above it. Also agree on the duration of the bear market to be about 2 years - maybe less this time, who knows.
We will however very good rallies - when everyone will become bearish - and atleast some of these should hopefully be good profit minting rallies.

[marne.vivek]

hey harish,

firstly i apologize, these days, have not been contributing, which would actually help me more.

Coming to the post i completely agree with it and the H & S posted by Sanmen (sandeep) based on H & S pattern.

[hdobhal]

Dear Mr. Sumeet,

Thanks for the reply sir. I am very happy to see ppl recognizing the TRUTH. You know, still there are Green Blinds, who refuse to "see" anything.

Well, you are right sir, at 5299, the 200 DMA also was there acting as big resistance. All in all, whenever I look on to the charts, I see so many indications pointing the inability of bulls.

You are right sir. Once we recognize this is Bear Market and NOT a mere bull market correction, there are going to be good long opportunities. In bear markets, there are seen very fierce and powerful rallies, which, at times, create a doubt in bulls' mind. So I agree with you that we can benefit from them.

Thanks
Harish Dobhal

[hdobhal]

Dear Marne,

come on man, I can understand everyone has a lot of other work to do. However, you are one of the most important contributer here, so when u r not around, it looks dull.

hope you will continue posting here...

Harish Dobhal

[rameshraja]

Dear Harish

I fully agree with you that trendline is broken and it is trading below that level. Market is all about support and Resistance and trendline is one which is always reliable.

Bears need to exercise self control at this stage and prudent bears will go for short covering as many of the stocks and indices are trading at 15 to 20% from 50 SMA, which is very vulnerable and it is advantage for bulls to trap the bears.

Good writing by you as always and I wish you all the best in your trading.


Regards


C T RAMESH RAJA

[hdobhal]

Dear Rameshraja Sir,

I can't state in words how good I feel on seeing your reply sir.

Your words are biggest encouragement...

As per your view for prudent bears, I fully agree sir, I'll looking to book my shorts at today's gap down and will initiate nest shorts when short covering is resisted.

Thanks Sir, pls keep on commenting on my post... Its useful for all

Harish Dobhal

[hdobhal]

Hello Friends,

When you wake up in the morning and see this, I want to assure you all that today I'm going to post something bigger than just ANALYSIS.

Thanks
Harish

[hdobhal]

Hello Friends,

I've been quite busy for few days and so not being able to update this place as often as it should be. My sincere apologies to all readers.

Today, as I promised, I am going to talk on few fundamental things. Lot of people are talking about Crude, Equities and Commodities etc. I thought I should also put my thoughts here.

Crude Oil - Bubble? or is it?

We all know (and the fact is even unrelated people know) that crude oil has been creating headlines for quite some time in not only Business and Financial Media but even in Mainstream Media. The reason is it has been running up like there is no tomorrow !!! well, just think about it - "there is no tomorrow". I deliberately emphasize it as I want to draw your attention on this.

Some time back, I already posted some view on Crude. Then, I put several possibilities for the surge in its price. I raised the question whether it is mere speculation, fear of geopolitical disturbances OR a fundamental demand issue. I read several information in the meantime and astonishingly, it is not mere speculation or mere fear of geopolitical disturbance !!! then what? fundamental demand? Well, the answer is YES, but with a difference.

Oil is necessary for developement as it is a worldwide source of energy. The demand for energy is growing and will only stop when there is a real slowdown in Global Economic Growth. Well, then you ask why is demand growing when there is a notable slowdown in US, the biggest economy? The answer is - the demand is more from China, India and other growing economies and despite the fear of slowdown in these economies, the demand for energy will continue to pick up. Add to this, the politics of developing countries makes way for continuing to reward the perpetrators of TODAY's BIGGEST CRIME - pollution, leading to greenhouse gases. For example, our great politicians have been rewarding the fuel misusers by subsidizing it. Moreover, this reward extends to the OPEC nations. Do you really see the govt here (or in any developing country) doing away with subsidies ? In my opinion, the consumption of petroleum products is not going to see any decrease by the latest price hike that we saw. And, knowing the time is not good electionswise, I don't think there will be more hikes very soon.

So, the bottomline - the demand for crude is not going to slow very much. When will the demand slow? well, when there is a real slowdown in Industrial activity and it starts reflecting in the consumption of middle class, then only there will be people cutting on their oil mis-expenditure.

The growing population of the world has increased the demand for energy so much that some OPEC countries are withdrawing from it as by definition, they are no more Net Exporters of Oil !!!

The SUPPLY issue?

Some people are arguing, there are enough reserves of Oil in Arab alone, that can be utilized to bring down the energy crisis. All OPEC nations have been claiming big Oil reserves, Saudi Arab leading the claim with 260 billion barrels !!!

Is it really so? NO. I got this information from a US economist and analyst, who has been keeping a close watch on this for long time. He has some sound arguments on why the OPEC countries are overestimating Oil Reserves? READ below:

In the 1980s, OPEC's claim of total reserves magically leaped from 353 to 643 billion barrels without a single major discovery. Industry experts call it the quota war.

You see, OPEC had to limit how much oil each member could sell, because prices were too low. The quotas were based on... each member's oil reserves!

That's right: The amount of oil OPEC would let a member pump depended on how much that member had in the ground. So it paid for OPEC members to claim the biggest reserves they could. And that's what they did.

The Saudis alone jacked up their estimate by about 100 billion. Kuwait added 50% to its reserves in one year, 1985. Venezuela doubled its reserves in 1987. Iraq and Iran doubled their estimates, too.

What's more, OPEC members did like the Saudis and kept their reserve estimates the same year after year, as if no oil were being pumped out and sold.

Everyone claimed to have a bottomless well.

Now, if you're like me, you prefer to base your financial decisions on the real world, not on a fantasy.

The above "TRUTH" is what I got from the above mentioned Economist and I trust every word of him.

Now, I will post "The Thing", that is definitely worth giving a look:

Most of us believe in "WHAT GOES UP, MUST COME DOWN", right?
The statisticians call it "Regression to the mean" - so everything that shoots up sharply will come down to the "mean" once (OR even below it).
Some say, whenever there is abuuble, it has to burst.
As an example - The stock market went up before Jan and then came down

Well, what is going up today? The Oil? The commodities? Is the bubble there and its ready to burst?
Ok, both are going up. What else is going up even more sharply? Ok, just think...

This is very disturbing, but TRUE. The answer is WE, We the Human Beings - Biologically speaking -We, The Homo Sapiens


Just look in the mirror, at our own species. In the many, many
thousands of years of our prehistory, we were hardly worth counting. There
were tribes of us all over the globe...but they were small...barely
holding their own against other species in the competition for food and
resources. It took until about 1800 to get the population up to one
billion. Worldwide. Then, man was a big winner. Numero Uno...the crown of
creation. By 1930, another billion had been added. And another billion was
added in the next 40 years. That brings us to about 1970, when the earth
hosted about 3 million two-legged yahoos. Since then, the population has
more than doubled. The line shot up, in other words.

But we are a proud and egotistical race. As our numbers rise, we think the
road will rise to meet us. What a shock it would be to find that the whole
species is mean-reverting, just like everything else! What a surprise to
find no road at all – to find that we are running off the edge of a cliff,
like lemmings.

The above is based on a report in The Daily Telegraph. AND, you don't need to read the report, the facts mentioned above are self explanatory.

Dear Friends, The above BUBBLE DOES NOT MEAN, I am in anyway saying doom. In fact, that tells about the opportunity of wealth creation. According to Goldman Sachs, the biggest danger to the world is not terrorism etc, but the shortage of Drinking Water. Just think, are we going to die thirsty? NO. there is plenty of water on our planet. The problem is it isn't at the right places. So, the problem is there, the answer should be in your mind...

Just think...

Don't you smell a real good investment opportunity for coming decades???

Just think...

I conclude my post here with my sincere thanks to Mr. Byron Kings.

Disclaimer: Some text have been copied "exactly as it is" from some non-commercial source and here it is used only for "informative" and non-commercial purpose.

[ramtrade]

Hi Harish,

I too have been reading abt the next big commodity - Water and the business of water. Water is going to be bigger than the oil and this is where the future opportunity exists.

It makes me curious to think if this is so.....Chennai Petroleum is installing a desalination plant to meet all it's water requirement for it's plants. Just one plant to meet all it's water requirements and it is being said that with such size of the plants, couple more it could meet all the current water defecit of Chennai city.

Part of the reason for this new found opportunity is the effects of green house gases on the current global weather patterns and cycles. We are already seeing the effects of these in the world.

Now coming to the bottom line, i guess we should find the list of public listed companies in India which are into this segment of industry.

Thanks
Ramesh

[hdobhal]

Dear Ramtrade,

Thanks for the reply.

Yes, we need to find out the "companies" which are capable of not only setting up water treatment and purification plants, but also who have the best potential for water supply management. The opportunity is more in the "supply" side.

The bigger opportunity is not in the "purification" companies but surprisingly in the companies that can benefit from the infrastructure required for clean water supply.

Harish

[ramtrade]

Hi All,

I sometimes wonder how certain coincide with certain events. Just today i happen to read BW article abt the relation ship between the horse race (Kentucky Derby) and the Wall Street.

Those who might be aware Big Brown has been making news in recent months abt it's race wins in U.S. There were high hopes of Big Brown winning the tripple crown in Belmont. Big Brown lost the Belmont race and if it had won the race it would have won the tripple crown. The other two races which Big Brown won is Kentucky Derby and Preakness. According to Detuche Bank investment strategist, whenever a single horse won all the three races, it's a bad sign for the wall street and he has observed that S&P tanks that day. Strange co-incidence.

Thanks
Ramesh

[nanchilvijay]

As of there exsists 2 supports for NS which are 4510 and 4400 these are not any MA these supports have been taken from nifty data which would change as per trading pattern of each day and not any technical work out. So Harish one can go long keeping these supports. But Harish its good work out which u have made, but i see to strengthen the market it has recover if not what is there if market is for one side .

[nanchilvijay]

Dear Harish and Ram here in Tamil we have 60 yrs cycle which in first 15yrs there will be more rain and the next 15 yrs to level which we need and next moderate and then a dry season of inadequate rainfall. This has been true, this year is called Sarvathari and its sanskrit name the year will bring too many sorrows to the people from nature in the form of water like flood cyclone tsunami.Now we are in first cycle were we will get excess water we should find means of storing this water, and also strengthening underground water table, there will not be any water shortage @least till 2015 for the south. Not like crude which will become extinct water can also be made from oxygen present in air. A mobile which moves with hydrogen a fuel exhaust water when reacted with oxygen in air. So keep smiling.

[hdobhal]

good one vijay,

But my post does not mean that. Its something different I'm talking about. there will be lot of water ALWAYS - nature's law, BUT its the question of access, that I have raised

Harish