iCharts Discussions

hdobhal · White Belt Joined: 19 Dec 2007 Posts: 162

Dear friends,

I am posting here my analysis of Nifty. This is a very humble effort and I hope you will be kind enough to apologize me for any mistake.

The first thing I request to all of you is - kindly do not think I am 'predicting' or even 'guessing' any move by Nifty in any direction. I put it here very clearly that I'm only trying to analyze chart and data and presenting my view only. Kindly trade after consulting some expert advice.

Pls see the attached chart. If we draw a downtrend line from Jan high to recent high, its meeting at three points. In other words, after Jan high, if we consider 2nd may high as last resistance and draw a trend line, extend it, then recent high was exactly at that line on 16th May. This, according to me, is a validation of the down trend continuing, as the line became resistance and Nifty started falling from there.

Now, let us talk about latest uptrend. In my opinion, the latest uptrend started on 18th Mar, when Nifty made a low of 4468 thereabout. The uptrend of Nifty at 4628 on 7th April and continued its upmove. I drew an uptrend line joining these two, and Nifty respected the support of this line until 22nd May. But on 23rd May, Nifty broke that trend line and in my opinion the uptrend was disturbed.

For any resumption of last uptrend, Nifty has to go above that trend line, which is above 5200 and rising.

Now, considering the downtrend is in place, I have this assumption that Nifty can still move upto 5000 - 50 levels as it might try to test the downtrend line.

One more thing to watch out is today Nifty made a Bearish Engulfing, so it will be difficult for it to move up in a hurry.

Also, if we remember May Expiry day trading and the way Nifty closed at almost near the low, it tells something strange is there. The way 5000 Puts were written and the way most of the global markets were doing, it is very difficult to digest today's close.

Thank you and looking forward to your comments/suggestions

Harish Dobhal
(hdobhal)

marne.vivek · Posted: Fri May 30, 2008 12:37 am Post subject:

Hi harish,

good work thanks man, jus adding few more lines to your analysis..

hdobhal · White Belt Joined: 19 Dec 2007 Posts: 162

Hi Marne,

Thanks for viewing my post and I am glad to see your img with EW lines. What I guess is, still the D and E are unknown, am I right? I am still learning about EW so don't have much to comment on it, however, I'd certainly like to learn the projections that can be derived from it.

Harish

rameshraja · Expert Joined: 24 Nov 2006 Posts: 1121

Hello Mr Hdobhal

Good Analysis. I fully agree with you and Nifty is not able to cross earlier resistance level and broken the trendline also. Its only a question of time before Nifty plunges to a new low.

I think right time for market to tank is just before the second quarterly results, probably in the month of July, 2008. Any sideways movement and getting consolidated in a downtrend will have a powerful down move when the last support is takenout.

Good work sir, keep it up.

Best Wishes

C T RAMESH RAJA

marne.vivek · Posted: Fri May 30, 2008 11:09 am Post subject:

Inverted H & S in progess

5 min chart

marne.vivek · Posted: Fri May 30, 2008 11:10 am Post subject:

Inverted H & S in progess

5 min chart

hdobhal · White Belt Joined: 19 Dec 2007 Posts: 162

Dear Rameshraja Sir,

It is an honour for me when a person of your stature says encouraging words to a novice like me. I have always looked at your analysis and levels and learnt a lot of things from that. Today, I was disappointed to not find your post. I request you to kindly keep guiding with your valuable posts.

Thanks with Best Regards

Harish Dobhal

hdobhal · White Belt Joined: 19 Dec 2007 Posts: 162

Dear Marne.Vivek,

I agree with the H&S pattern sir. It means, if Nifty breaks above the neckline and goes above 4900, then there shd be an intraday reversal and we can see 4930-50.

Harish Dobhal

marne.vivek · Posted: Fri May 30, 2008 11:33 am Post subject: In case of pattrern successful

in case pattern is successful, then we might see those levels, however, ideally, there should be re-testing of neckline once it is broken, then move up will be equivalent to half the distance between Neckline and bottom of head. In that case, tgt is possible, however we cannot say anything for now until neckline is broken...

iskasupraja · White Belt Joined: 14 Feb 2008 Posts: 1

Hi,Mr.Harish
Good Morning!
It is good analysis.keep it up.
Thanks
supraja iska

hdobhal · White Belt Joined: 19 Dec 2007 Posts: 162

Dear Supraja Iska sir,

Thanks for the encouragement sir. Please keep on visiting the place for new topics and posts.

Thanks

Harish Dobhal

mayurnsk · Posted: Fri May 30, 2008 12:12 pm Post subject:

Hi
Harish.

Good analysis..and I agree. Just keep writing such posts. Very Happy

cheers!!!!

Mayuresah Jahagirdar
Nasik
Maharashtra

marne.vivek · Posted: Fri May 30, 2008 12:23 pm Post subject:

Continuing the previous pattern

marne.vivek · Posted: Fri May 30, 2008 12:52 pm Post subject:

hope we go up...

Twisted Evil

hdobhal · White Belt Joined: 19 Dec 2007 Posts: 162

Dear Mayur ,

Thanks for viewing the post and encouraging me. Your help and support will always be important and highly appreciated.

Thanks
Harish