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Nifty analysis - Welgro corner |
hardik0007
White Belt
Joined: 16 Mar 2011
Posts: 53
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Post: #121  Posted: Mon Jun 30, 2014 1:46 pm Post subject: |
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| welgro wrote: | Nifty spot once if trade below 7585 then i plan to take short position.
with stop loss : 7603.00 |
Is short applicable it made low of 7582 spot |
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anand512
White Belt
Joined: 26 Jun 2009
Posts: 109
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| Post: #122 Posted: Mon Jun 30, 2014 2:21 pm Post subject: |
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| sl. 7603 hit |
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anand512
White Belt
Joined: 26 Jun 2009
Posts: 109
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| Post: #123 Posted: Mon Jun 30, 2014 2:23 pm Post subject: |
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still hourly close above 7600 hasn't come
latest view ? |
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anand512
White Belt
Joined: 26 Jun 2009
Posts: 109
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| Post: #124 Posted: Mon Jun 30, 2014 2:38 pm Post subject: |
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even after nifty spot trades above 7600 , premium has gone down
what's the indication ? |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #125 Posted: Mon Jun 30, 2014 3:21 pm Post subject: |
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| anand512 wrote: | even after nifty spot trades above 7600 , premium has gone down
what's the indication ? |
people like me  are selling OTM call of 8000 , 7900 etc.....since expect only budget related 7800-7900 gasps...and fall down or consolidation.....
while buying NF .....during the day....and willing to reenter NF longs in next few days..... |
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welgro
Brown Belt
Joined: 24 Sep 2012
Posts: 1784
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| Post: #126 Posted: Mon Jun 30, 2014 3:22 pm Post subject: |
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wait some times,I will update my view,
Now i am in side line ,I don't have any fresh intra positions .
previous position : 7800 call is open. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #127 Posted: Mon Jun 30, 2014 5:59 pm Post subject: |
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| anand512 wrote: | even after nifty spot trades above 7600 , premium has gone down
what's the indication ? |
that's because vix has gone down |
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welgro
Brown Belt
Joined: 24 Sep 2012
Posts: 1784
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| Post: #128 Posted: Mon Jun 30, 2014 6:07 pm Post subject: |
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Higher Volatility leads to more premium and so the Options price goes up and Vice Versa.
So for Any strategy which involves BUYing of Pairs, one should BUY around when the VOLT is low.
So for Any strategy which involves SELLing of Pairs, one should SELL around when the VOLT is HIGH.
One cannot predict the VOLT of the individual options but one can predict or Expect the trend of the overall VOLT movement by following the INDIAVIX.
India VIX is calculated using the OTM Options Volatility.
When the India VIX goes UP that means there is some interest created in BUYing the OTM options.
It does not give the direction but it gives an indication that there is a Wide movement in waiting.
When the India VIX goes down then that means the BIG movement is over and NIFTY might go into a narrow range... |
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welgro
Brown Belt
Joined: 24 Sep 2012
Posts: 1784
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| Post: #129 Posted: Mon Jun 30, 2014 6:32 pm Post subject: |
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| Nifty spot + India Vix + 7800 Call + 7400 Put |
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acharyams
Yellow Belt
Joined: 04 Jul 2010
Posts: 552
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| Post: #130 Posted: Mon Jun 30, 2014 7:00 pm Post subject: |
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Sir,
As stated earlier by you, Nifty cleared resistance of 7600 on closing basis. Hence, can we expect that a short covering/ pre-budget rally is on the cards. What do you think? |
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welgro
Brown Belt
Joined: 24 Sep 2012
Posts: 1784
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| Post: #131 Posted: Mon Jun 30, 2014 7:36 pm Post subject: |
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| acharyams wrote: | Sir,
As stated earlier by you, Nifty cleared resistance of 7600 on closing basis. Hence, can we expect that a short covering/ pre-budget rally is on the cards. What do you think? |
acharyams,
Today's Morning first hour niftyspot move has runway gap at 7570 level.
Niftyspot now trades above the Chanel pattern breakout trend line.
Asper this chart pattern have a good support (throw back) at 7570 - 7560.
Nifty spot hourly close if below this level then i expect bull trap. Target 7500 (As per today's Max OI change 7500 Put)
My bias is still DOWN as per today's Open interest Change.
Any way tomorrow First hour close may give some hint about trend confirmation or any trend reversal. wait for live market update.
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welgro
Brown Belt
Joined: 24 Sep 2012
Posts: 1784
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| Post: #132 Posted: Mon Jun 30, 2014 8:42 pm Post subject: |
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| welgro wrote: |  |
CNXIT MADE HIGH : 9921.15 |
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acharyams
Yellow Belt
Joined: 04 Jul 2010
Posts: 552
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| Post: #133 Posted: Tue Jul 01, 2014 1:07 pm Post subject: |
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Awaiting for update
| welgro wrote: | | acharyams wrote: | Sir,
As stated earlier by you, Nifty cleared resistance of 7600 on closing basis. Hence, can we expect that a short covering/ pre-budget rally is on the cards. What do you think? |
acharyams,
Today's Morning first hour niftyspot move has runway gap at 7570 level.
Niftyspot now trades above the Chanel pattern breakout trend line.
Asper this chart pattern have a good support (throw back) at 7570 - 7560.
Nifty spot hourly close if below this level then i expect bull trap. Target 7500 (As per today's Max OI change 7500 Put)
My bias is still DOWN as per today's Open interest Change.
Any way tomorrow First hour close may give some hint about trend confirmation or any trend reversal. wait for live market update.
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welgro
Brown Belt
Joined: 24 Sep 2012
Posts: 1784
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| Post: #134 Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2014 12:36 am Post subject: |
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yesterday as per nifty options "open interest change" market is in bullish.
Nifty spot double top resistance 7655 - 7665. and EOD NR 7.
hourly chart if hold above this resistance then try to test 7750.(channel breakout target)
Nifty spot seems strong support at : 7600 level ( 295,300 ,Highest OI Change in 7600 put).
Once if breach this strong support then nifty spot try to test 7565 ( Down Channel positive breakout line throw back support).
Banknifty strong resistabce at 15350 - 15400 level( Double top pattern )
Once if close(Hourly) above this resistance then banknifty try to test again all time high 15700 level.
at the same time banknifty if didnot cross the double top resistance then try to test 15150 level (positive breakout trendline throw back support)
In case if breach and close below this support then down side target 14650 (bull trap). |
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welgro
Brown Belt
Joined: 24 Sep 2012
Posts: 1784
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| Post: #135 Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2014 9:45 am Post subject: |
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Opening Range Market sentiment is Bullish (As per OI Change)
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