| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Nifty analysis - Welgro corner |
vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
|
Post: #181  Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2014 5:13 pm Post subject: Re: Rising Wedge in nifty?? |
 |
|
| apka wrote: | | Ruchirgupta2000 wrote: | | Hi Welgro, I see a rising Wedge in Nifty.. is fall expected? |
It's a good question Ruchir. Keep observing and asking questions, that's the best way to learn.
More often than not rising wedges result in fall. This one is also making a -ww. A figure below 7580 spot can take it to 7350-7380. |
rising wedge has been going on for days. normally it triggers around 70% of the run but hasn't yet. just short of the lower TL. |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
|
|
|
welgro
Brown Belt
Joined: 24 Sep 2012
Posts: 1784
|
| Post: #182 Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2014 7:45 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Nifty spot EOD Analysis:-
Nifty spot today closed almost below the last 5 trading sessions low.
As per EOD close “Major Swing top reversal”. Today really strong reversal?Wait...
Just watch today’s movement with volume:
Yesterday NR7 range is 36.90 (Volume: 173,926,352)
Today Nifty spot range is 212.95 (Volume: 180,646,304)
What you understand about this logic? Big range movement with less volume.
Yes... Operators game (Their create such a fake fall movement for options playing)
How to understand: Today nifty close with -164 points loss. 7500 PE today also added 865300 qty suggesting 7500 level is strong support. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Gemini
White Belt
Joined: 28 Apr 2009
Posts: 166
|
| Post: #183 Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2014 8:39 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Welgro,
You have been providing excellent inputs in various threads. Sincere thanks.
Request one clarification : You have mentioned about volume today. Which is this volume ? Nifty future indicates 3,52,581 contracts, with traded value of 13,61,787.9 lacs of Rs. (as per nsw web-site).
Thanks in advance ... |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
welgro
Brown Belt
Joined: 24 Sep 2012
Posts: 1784
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Gemini
White Belt
Joined: 28 Apr 2009
Posts: 166
|
| Post: #185 Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2014 9:03 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Thanks Welgro.
Very Interesting and important parameter . |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
welgro
Brown Belt
Joined: 24 Sep 2012
Posts: 1784
|
| Post: #186 Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2014 9:47 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Sector wise movement (After june Expiry) |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Ruchirgupta2000
White Belt
Joined: 12 Jun 2014
Posts: 297
|
| Post: #187 Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2014 11:42 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Hi Welgro, are you creating these excel sheets or downloading them from some website with data?
Regards,
Ruchir
| welgro wrote: | 
Nifty Opening Range Market sentiment is Bullish cum Neutral (As per OI Change)
Nifty 7500 put option today additionally added 2K contracts OI at opening range. Market makes strong support at 7500 range. 8200 CE OI at 65K saw additions of 1.3 k at opening range. So speculative buying started in 8200 CE keeping pre budget rally in mind.
Bank Nifty Opening Range Market sentiment is Bearish cum Neutral (As per OI Change)
Yesterday Bank nifty 15500 put option added 34800 qty (Max change OI) and Bank nifty spot now trades above key support level (15410)
What it’s witnessed us: bank nifty spot still trades between the Master candle range, once if breach the range then it will make blast move, so hedge funds protect their long positions with put hedge.
Bank nifty spot last 3 week high low was 15726 and 14859, Bank nifty option operators holding their positions with “short-strangle” strategy, pairs are 15000PE with 16000CE and 14500PE with 15500CE. |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
welgro
Brown Belt
Joined: 24 Sep 2012
Posts: 1784
|
| Post: #188 Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2014 7:19 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Ruchirgupta2000 wrote: | Hi Welgro, are you creating these excel sheets or downloading them from some website with data?
Regards,
Ruchir |
Download here , i have attached that excel |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
ndpotade
Yellow Belt
Joined: 05 Feb 2010
Posts: 580
|
| Post: #189 Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2014 8:07 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Ruchirgupta2000 wrote: | Hi Welgro, are you creating these excel sheets or downloading them from some website with data?
Regards,
Ruchir
| welgro wrote: |
Nifty Opening Range Market sentiment is Bullish cum Neutral (As per OI Change)
Nifty 7500 put option today additionally added 2K contracts OI at opening range. Market makes strong support at 7500 range. 8200 CE OI at 65K saw additions of 1.3 k at opening range. So speculative buying started in 8200 CE keeping pre budget rally in mind.
Bank Nifty Opening Range Market sentiment is Bearish cum Neutral (As per OI Change)
Yesterday Bank nifty 15500 put option added 34800 qty (Max change OI) and Bank nifty spot now trades above key support level (15410)
What it’s witnessed us: bank nifty spot still trades between the Master candle range, once if breach the range then it will make blast move, so hedge funds protect their long positions with put hedge.
Bank nifty spot last 3 week high low was 15726 and 14859, Bank nifty option operators holding their positions with “short-strangle” strategy, pairs are 15000PE with 16000CE and 14500PE with 15500CE. |
|
The OI analysis excel file is prepared by me. Thanks for support. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Ruchirgupta2000
White Belt
Joined: 12 Jun 2014
Posts: 297
|
| Post: #190 Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2014 8:09 am Post subject: Re: Rising Wedge in nifty?? |
|
|
Hi Amit, thanks for such a detailed "if" senario analysis. I appreciate that.
Regards,
Ruchir
| amitagg wrote: | | Ruchirgupta2000 wrote: | | Hi Welgro, I see a rising Wedge in Nifty.. is fall expected? |
but even if you expect a fall how would you trade: would u sell now or wait for something to happen?
1) if you wait and the wedge is broken on upside due to budgetary considerations u wont sell atleast if not buy.....
2) if you wait and wedge is broken on upside but then there is a fall after that....u would call it a "throwback"...and wont sell
3) if the throw back fails and you intent to sell, please note that after all the wedge may not be broken on the upside at all. 
4) if u buy puts and markets dont give up severely u lose the premium.....
If u sell now, then markets above previous swing high of 7680/7715 can go up higher stopping you out.....
so just wait and watch dear......sometimes patience pays off |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Ruchirgupta2000
White Belt
Joined: 12 Jun 2014
Posts: 297
|
| Post: #191 Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2014 8:12 am Post subject: |
|
|
Thanks NDPO. It would be great if you can also share the information links. 
Regards,
Ruchir
| ndpotade wrote: | | Ruchirgupta2000 wrote: | Hi Welgro, are you creating these excel sheets or downloading them from some website with data?
Regards,
Ruchir
| welgro wrote: |
Nifty Opening Range Market sentiment is Bullish cum Neutral (As per OI Change)
Nifty 7500 put option today additionally added 2K contracts OI at opening range. Market makes strong support at 7500 range. 8200 CE OI at 65K saw additions of 1.3 k at opening range. So speculative buying started in 8200 CE keeping pre budget rally in mind.
Bank Nifty Opening Range Market sentiment is Bearish cum Neutral (As per OI Change)
Yesterday Bank nifty 15500 put option added 34800 qty (Max change OI) and Bank nifty spot now trades above key support level (15410)
What it’s witnessed us: bank nifty spot still trades between the Master candle range, once if breach the range then it will make blast move, so hedge funds protect their long positions with put hedge.
Bank nifty spot last 3 week high low was 15726 and 14859, Bank nifty option operators holding their positions with “short-strangle” strategy, pairs are 15000PE with 16000CE and 14500PE with 15500CE. |
|
The OI analysis excel file is prepared by me. Thanks for support. |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Ruchirgupta2000
White Belt
Joined: 12 Jun 2014
Posts: 297
|
| Post: #192 Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2014 8:14 am Post subject: |
|
|
Thanks Welgro for sharing this excel
Regards.
Ruchir
| welgro wrote: | | Ruchirgupta2000 wrote: | Hi Welgro, are you creating these excel sheets or downloading them from some website with data?
Regards,
Ruchir |
Download here , i have attached that excel |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Ruchirgupta2000
White Belt
Joined: 12 Jun 2014
Posts: 297
|
| Post: #193 Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2014 8:20 am Post subject: Re: Rising Wedge in nifty?? |
|
|
Hi Apka, appriciate your answers and effort to make us learn.
Regards.
Ruchir
| apka wrote: | | Ruchirgupta2000 wrote: | | Hi Welgro, I see a rising Wedge in Nifty.. is fall expected? |
It's a good question Ruchir. Keep observing and asking questions, that's the best way to learn.
More often than not rising wedges result in fall. This one is also making a -ww. A figure below 7580 spot can take it to 7350-7380. |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Ruchirgupta2000
White Belt
Joined: 12 Jun 2014
Posts: 297
|
| Post: #194 Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2014 8:24 am Post subject: Re: Rising Wedge in nifty?? |
|
|
Hi Vinay, thanks for the reply.
did not get this "normally it triggers around 70% of the run but hasn't yet. "
how do we know the 100%? is the converge of both the lines termed as 100%?
Regards,
Ruchir
| vinay28 wrote: | | apka wrote: | | Ruchirgupta2000 wrote: | | Hi Welgro, I see a rising Wedge in Nifty.. is fall expected? |
It's a good question Ruchir. Keep observing and asking questions, that's the best way to learn.
More often than not rising wedges result in fall. This one is also making a -ww. A figure below 7580 spot can take it to 7350-7380. |
rising wedge has been going on for days. normally it triggers around 70% of the run but hasn't yet. just short of the lower TL. |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
welgro
Brown Belt
Joined: 24 Sep 2012
Posts: 1784
|
| Post: #195 Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2014 8:49 am Post subject: |
|
|
| ndpotade wrote: |
The OI analysis excel file is prepared by me. Thanks for support. |
Hello ndpotade,
I get this excel from my broker office,i am very happy to see here who one create this excel.
ndpotade, big thanks for prepared this file. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
FAQ
Search
Memberlist
Usergroups
Register
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
