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Nifty analysis - Welgro corner
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Nifty analysis - Welgro corner

welgro
Brown Belt

Joined: 24 Sep 2012
Posts: 1784

Post: #196 Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2014 8:56 am Post subject:

Dear ndpotade, One more request,Kindly add "max pain" in this excel. It will be more helpful for expiry week trading.

welgro
Brown Belt

Joined: 24 Sep 2012
Posts: 1784

Post: #197 Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2014 10:28 am Post subject:

vinay28
Black Belt

Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748

Post: #198

Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2014 10:58 am Post subject: Re: Rising Wedge in nifty??

Ruchirgupta2000 wrote:

Hi Vinay, thanks for the reply.

did not get this "normally it triggers around 70% of the run but hasn't yet. "
how do we know the 100%? is the converge of both the lines termed as 100%?

Regards,
Ruchir

yes, ruchir, the apex of wedge or triangle is 100%. u have to work backward 30% of the total length i.e. from point where it is started. of course it is impossible to guess when it will trigger and hence TL should be watched.

Ruchirgupta2000
White Belt

Joined: 12 Jun 2014
Posts: 297

Post: #199

Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2014 11:46 am Post subject: Re: Rising Wedge in nifty??

The Wedge is already broken, what can I expect as target?

vinay28 wrote:

Ruchirgupta2000 wrote:

vinay28
Black Belt

Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748

Post: #200

Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2014 12:05 pm Post subject: Re: Rising Wedge in nifty??

Ruchirgupta2000 wrote:

The Wedge is already broken, what can I expect as target?

vinay28 wrote:

Ruchirgupta2000 wrote:

target is 54-100% to low of the wedge. BUT break down can be false also. So, always look for possibility of reversal also.

welgro
Brown Belt

Joined: 24 Sep 2012
Posts: 1784

Post: #201

Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2014 12:28 pm Post subject: Re: Rising Wedge in nifty??

Ruchirgupta2000 wrote:

The Wedge is already broken, what can I expect as target?

Ruchirgupta2000
White Belt

Joined: 12 Jun 2014
Posts: 297

Post: #202

Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2014 12:46 pm Post subject: Re: Rising Wedge in nifty??

welgro wrote:

Ruchirgupta2000 wrote:

The Wedge is already broken, what can I expect as target?

Thanks Welgro!

welgro
Brown Belt

Joined: 24 Sep 2012
Posts: 1784

Post: #203 Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2014 2:52 pm Post subject:

Ruchirgupta2000
White Belt

Joined: 12 Jun 2014
Posts: 297

Post: #204

Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2014 2:56 pm Post subject: Re: Rising Wedge in nifty??

welgro wrote:

Ruchirgupta2000 wrote:

The Wedge is already broken, what can I expect as target?

Nifty is going to close even lower from yeserday. Now can I assume Wedge working?

Regards,
Ruchir

Ruchirgupta2000
White Belt

Joined: 12 Jun 2014
Posts: 297

Post: #205

Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2014 3:02 pm Post subject:

welgro wrote:

HI WELGRO . What is the implication of these 2 charts?

Reagrds
Ruchir

sonshu101
White Belt

Joined: 24 Nov 2011
Posts: 79

Post: #206

Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2014 3:08 pm Post subject:

Ruchirgupta2000 wrote:

welgro wrote:

HI WELGRO . What is the implication of these 2 charts?

Reagrds
Ruchir

What i can understand is generally trend is same as per above chart but intraday it was reversed for some time. Now what that means welgro can explain better Smile

welgro
Brown Belt

Joined: 24 Sep 2012
Posts: 1784

Post: #207

Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2014 3:10 pm Post subject: Re: Rising Wedge in nifty??

Ruchirgupta2000 wrote:

welgro wrote:

Ruchirgupta2000 wrote:

The Wedge is already broken, what can I expect as target?

Nifty is going to close even lower from yeserday. Now can I assume Wedge working?

Regards,
Ruchir

EOD wedge pattern activated when nifty breach the yesterday's low(signal bar).

Already explained wedge stop loss is above the support line EOD close.

Ruchirgupta2000
White Belt

Joined: 12 Jun 2014
Posts: 297

Post: #208

Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2014 3:34 pm Post subject: Re: Rising Wedge in nifty??

welgro wrote:

Ruchirgupta2000 wrote:

welgro wrote:

Ruchirgupta2000 wrote:

The Wedge is already broken, what can I expect as target?

Nifty is going to close even lower from yeserday. Now can I assume Wedge working?

Regards,
Ruchir

EOD wedge pattern activated when nifty breach the yesterday's low(signal bar).

Already explained wedge stop loss is above the support line EOD close.

and it has breached yesterdays low at close basis.

welgro
Brown Belt

Joined: 24 Sep 2012
Posts: 1784

Post: #209

Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2014 3:47 pm Post subject: Re: Rising Wedge in nifty??

Ruchirgupta2000 wrote:

welgro wrote:

Ruchirgupta2000 wrote:

welgro wrote:

Ruchirgupta2000 wrote:

The Wedge is already broken, what can I expect as target?

Nifty is going to close even lower from yeserday. Now can I assume Wedge working?

Regards,
Ruchir

EOD wedge pattern activated when nifty breach the yesterday's low(signal bar).

Already explained wedge stop loss is above the support line EOD close.

and it has breached yesterdays low at close basis.

for example you get wedge breakout signal yesterday.

yesterday low was 7595.90 ( Round Num: 7595 )

Today morning after market open you will place "SL Sell order" at 7595.
if price once breach you will get short position..well hold for target.

what about stoploss : just chek everyday 3.25 PM nifty trading price with your chart (pattern lines). Once if its above your support line (Note : after 3.25 PM) then close the position at market price.

welgro
Brown Belt

Joined: 24 Sep 2012
Posts: 1784

Post: #210

Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2014 3:59 pm Post subject:

Ruchirgupta2000 wrote:

HI WELGRO . What is the implication of these 2 charts?

Reagrds
Ruchir

Put call ratio can be used as additional confirmation for taking a trade, moreover it can be found easily on NSE’s website. Before explaining you put call ratio analysis, I will tell you most important fact about options trading it is: “About 95% option contracts expire worthless.” This means most profitable group of option trader is “Option Writers”. Now you will get put call ratio from this NSE’s link, this is updated daily and it’s only for nifty option.

Put call ratio is a ratio of total traded put option against call option for a given day. This is actually contrarian indicator for near term trend, on this indicator a reading above 1 will be a bullish signal on nifty future, while ratio below 1 is a bearish signal. Whenever trader has doubt about the trend he can just look at put call ratio and get a clear trading idea.

Today’s put call ratio is 0.8. Now this fig. is clearly below 1 so call option writing (shorting) is more than put option, in simple words smart people is expecting nifty future will move lower level in coming sessions. Now suppose if Put call ratio is 1.1, here it is above 1 so put writing is more than call writing. This is because large traders are betting that nifty future may correct in near term.

Note: just i updated the logic ,Don’t compare PCR value is in above 1 or below 1, you can understand PCR changes with nifty’s momentum.

See yesterday PCR is 0.84 with today’s PCR is 0.80.

So what do you understand?
Yes, large traders today build heavy short positions in call options.Hmm... They are expect nifty will be go more down levels.

what will we to do ? We can also take short position otherwise Better to avoid open positions in against the trend.

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