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Nifty analysis - Welgro corner |
tinku1699
White Belt
Joined: 22 Jun 2014
Posts: 3
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Post: #211  Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2014 5:10 pm Post subject: So whats the direction... |
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Hi
I'm new to business and from below explanation understood that SHORT is the call for tomorrow.
please advice.
Regards
SA |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #212 Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2014 5:38 pm Post subject: |
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| how do you derive live PCR ? |
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welgro
Brown Belt
Joined: 24 Sep 2012
Posts: 1784
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| Post: #213 Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2014 5:58 pm Post subject: Re: So whats the direction... |
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| tinku1699 wrote: | Hi
I'm new to business and from below explanation understood that SHORT is the call for tomorrow.
please advice.
Regards
SA |
Dear tinku1699,
I am doing only positional trades.Already i have position in short.
PCR and OI analysis only for understanding market trend.All updates for educational purpose.Once you understand the market trend you can trade with more confident.
How to use PCR and OI ?
For an example if you are following moving average or any other technical strategy just conform trend with PCR and IO change.Once you follow your trades with market trend you will get more accuracy trades and success ratio.
At the same time if you have holding short , Book partial profit when the OI and PCR turned bullish.vice versa long. hence book balance qty as per your exit rule.
Last edited by welgro on Wed Jul 09, 2014 6:06 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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welgro
Brown Belt
Joined: 24 Sep 2012
Posts: 1784
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| Post: #214 Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2014 6:01 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | how do you derive live PCR ? |
Some sites provide live PCR charts,But i cannot update url here.[ Forum rules] |
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welgro
Brown Belt
Joined: 24 Sep 2012
Posts: 1784
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| Post: #215 Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2014 6:02 pm Post subject: |
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welgro
Brown Belt
Joined: 24 Sep 2012
Posts: 1784
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| Post: #216 Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2014 7:35 pm Post subject: |
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| NIFTY OPTIONS SNAPSHOT |
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welgro
Brown Belt
Joined: 24 Sep 2012
Posts: 1784
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| Post: #217 Posted: Thu Jul 10, 2014 9:08 am Post subject: Re: Rising Wedge in nifty?? |
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[quote="welgro"] | Ruchirgupta2000 wrote: | The Wedge is already broken, what can I expect as target?
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welgro
Brown Belt
Joined: 24 Sep 2012
Posts: 1784
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| Post: #218 Posted: Thu Jul 10, 2014 11:31 am Post subject: |
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welgro
Brown Belt
Joined: 24 Sep 2012
Posts: 1784
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| Post: #219 Posted: Thu Jul 10, 2014 1:52 pm Post subject: |
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| welgro wrote: |  |
Booked 50% qty at key support level.balance 50% Placed stoploss at cost. |
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veerappan
Expert
Joined: 19 Dec 2007
Posts: 3680
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| Post: #220 Posted: Thu Jul 10, 2014 2:19 pm Post subject: |
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| welgro wrote: | | welgro wrote: | |
Booked 50% qty at key support level.balance 50% Placed stoploss at cost. |
well grow... welgro... keep rocking ...  |
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welgro
Brown Belt
Joined: 24 Sep 2012
Posts: 1784
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| Post: #221 Posted: Thu Jul 10, 2014 3:59 pm Post subject: |
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Now i don't have any position. Tomorrow plan to build fresh positions.
Once i take any position,I will update... |
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welgro
Brown Belt
Joined: 24 Sep 2012
Posts: 1784
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| Post: #222 Posted: Thu Jul 10, 2014 4:02 pm Post subject: |
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| veerappan wrote: |
well grow... welgro... keep rocking ... |
Thanks Guruji ... |
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Ruchirgupta2000
White Belt
Joined: 12 Jun 2014
Posts: 297
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| Post: #223 Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2014 10:59 am Post subject: Re: Rising Wedge in nifty?? |
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Welgro thanks for giving such a detailed step by step explaination 
Regards,
Ruchir
| welgro wrote: | | Ruchirgupta2000 wrote: | | welgro wrote: | | Ruchirgupta2000 wrote: | | welgro wrote: | | Ruchirgupta2000 wrote: | The Wedge is already broken, what can I expect as target?
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Nifty is going to close even lower from yeserday. Now can I assume Wedge working?
Regards,
Ruchir |
EOD wedge pattern activated when nifty breach the yesterday's low(signal bar).
Already explained wedge stop loss is above the support line EOD close. |
and it has breached yesterdays low at close basis. |
for example you get wedge breakout signal yesterday.
yesterday low was 7595.90 ( Round Num: 7595 )
Today morning after market open you will place "SL Sell order" at 7595.
if price once breach you will get short position..well hold for target.
what about stoploss : just chek everyday 3.25 PM nifty trading price with your chart (pattern lines). Once if its above your support line (Note : after 3.25 PM) then close the position at market price. |
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Ruchirgupta2000
White Belt
Joined: 12 Jun 2014
Posts: 297
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| Post: #224 Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2014 11:33 am Post subject: |
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Hi Welgro thanks for your reply.
I some years back learned this but eventualy did not found it to be useful due these reasons:
1. although 90% were the options writters I doubted if in a situation like this (budget or any other big event) people migth be writing options, reason is that in the times like this when so much of volatiity, who would take that unlimited risk.
I understand the rationale of selling options while the markets are range bound.
2. If the FIIs are so smart why whould they sell and make slow money and tying so much of cash in the margins, while taking the one side open positions in options can give huge returns to them and not requiring any margin.
3. Also I dont know if this PCR is based on open interest that day (new open interest) or PCR of that days volume of puts and call or PCR of total open interest of that series. I suppose each of these 3 PCR whould give us differt insights.
Regards,
Ruchir
| welgro wrote: | | Ruchirgupta2000 wrote: |
HI WELGRO . What is the implication of these 2 charts?
Reagrds
Ruchir |
Put call ratio can be used as additional confirmation for taking a trade, moreover it can be found easily on NSE’s website. Before explaining you put call ratio analysis, I will tell you most important fact about options trading it is: “About 95% option contracts expire worthless.” This means most profitable group of option trader is “Option Writers”. Now you will get put call ratio from this NSE’s link, this is updated daily and it’s only for nifty option.
Put call ratio is a ratio of total traded put option against call option for a given day. This is actually contrarian indicator for near term trend, on this indicator a reading above 1 will be a bullish signal on nifty future, while ratio below 1 is a bearish signal. Whenever trader has doubt about the trend he can just look at put call ratio and get a clear trading idea.
Today’s put call ratio is 0.8. Now this fig. is clearly below 1 so call option writing (shorting) is more than put option, in simple words smart people is expecting nifty future will move lower level in coming sessions. Now suppose if Put call ratio is 1.1, here it is above 1 so put writing is more than call writing. This is because large traders are betting that nifty future may correct in near term.
Note: just i updated the logic ,Don’t compare PCR value is in above 1 or below 1, you can understand PCR changes with nifty’s momentum.
See yesterday PCR is 0.84 with today’s PCR is 0.80.
So what do you understand?
Yes, large traders today build heavy short positions in call options.Hmm... They are expect nifty will be go more down levels.
what will we to do ? We can also take short position otherwise Better to avoid open positions in against the trend. |
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welgro
Brown Belt
Joined: 24 Sep 2012
Posts: 1784
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| Post: #225 Posted: Sat Jul 12, 2014 12:28 pm Post subject: |
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