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Nifty analysis - Welgro corner
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Author Nifty analysis - Welgro corner
vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
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Post: #931   PostPosted: Thu Apr 30, 2015 8:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

welgro wrote:
Nifty spot strong bullish when if breach and trade above 8338...Expected positional targets are 8500 and 8800.

Nifty spot if trade and hold close below 8200 level,i am plan to take positional shorts or buy May2015 contract put option(Risky trade).


yesterday's candle is also like a bullish harami.
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manojkr78
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Joined: 07 Mar 2011
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Post: #932   PostPosted: Thu Apr 30, 2015 8:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Vinay,

yesterday's candle is bearish harami.
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AMBY
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Post: #933   PostPosted: Thu Apr 30, 2015 9:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

THANKS,
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welgro
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Post: #934   PostPosted: Thu Apr 30, 2015 12:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

MCXINDIA

Budha Purnima 4-May-15 Monday Closed [Morning Session,(10:00 am to 5:00 pm)
Open [Evening Session (5:00 pm to 11:30 / 11:55 pm)
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welgro
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Post: #935   PostPosted: Fri May 01, 2015 9:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bank nifty spot monthly chart APR 2015 candle formed “NR7 + Inside bar" pattern.

APR 2015 candle high is 19038.50 and the low is 17738.90 as well MAR 2015 candle low 17719.35. So most probably fresh long build-ups will maintain the stop loss @ 17700 levels.

When bank nifty spot if breach 17700 levels some aggressive traders will be build positional short entry. I am also planed the same thing. Already we mentioned about our short entry point in my previous bank nifty EOD analysis update.

Bank nifty spot rose almost 12500 points in last 21 months bull rally. As per monthly chart bank nifty broke the channel or parallel pattern support line in MAR 2015. In APR 2015 bank nifty spot trade below that negative breakout trend line. So when Bank nifty spot if breach the 17700 we will get breakout confirmation, may be trend reversal.
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girishhu1
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Post: #936   PostPosted: Fri May 01, 2015 12:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

welgroji,
thanks for detailed analysis on bank nifty monthly chart.Now pl guide how do you propose to trade banknifty options. do you propose to start accumulating 18xxxmay series puts or any other method ?
thanks n regards
girish
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welgro
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Post: #937   PostPosted: Mon May 04, 2015 6:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Index opened strong and stayed positive throughout the entire session of trade with each small drop being bought with ease and closed near the highs at 8331.95, huge gain of 150.45 points.

Today Nifty spot formed 3 BAR Bullish Reversal pattern. Nifty today breach the previous week high (8334.45). It’s a strong bullish sign. Nifty spot expected targets are 8500 and 8800 as per pattern reversal. Today i am took nifty 8400 call option @ 110.00. I am plan to book 50 % qty around 220.00 .Balance 50% plan to hold still trend reversal.
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welgro
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Post: #938   PostPosted: Tue May 05, 2015 7:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nifty closed up 150.45 points (1.84%) at 8331.95 while Future closed at 8372.25, premium of 40.30 points.

Bank Nifty closed up 163.20 points (0.89%) at 18501.30 while Future closed at 18599.20, premium of 97.90 points.

# FII bought in Cash (Net buy 60.53 Crore)

# FII bought in index option, stock future but sold in index future (Net buy 2862.12 Crore)

FII’s sold 13885 contract of Index Future worth 280 cores, 3217 Long contract were added by FII’s and 10668 short contracts were added by FII’s. Net Open Interest increased by 7451 contract.

FII bought 37340 contracts CE longs and 78502 contracts CE was shorted by them.

FII bought 170410 contracts PE longs and 17374 contracts PE were shorted by them.
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welgro
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Post: #939   PostPosted: Tue May 05, 2015 7:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nifty Open Interest is at 1,67,92,050 down by 15,46,900, with decrease in price, most probably huge long liquidation.

Bank Nifty Open Interest is at 17,90,000 up by 94,375, with decrease in price, most probably huge short build-up.

FII’s sold huge 11.10 lacs Futures, which includes 43094 contracts long liquidation and 1290 contracts short build-up, with decrease in net OI by 41804 contracts (includes 38066 longs to 82450 shorts for the day) .

FII’s Index future open contract as on date is 336091 Longs to 182655 Shorts, net long 153436 down by 44384 contracts.

FII's sold huge in cash (756.52 Cr).as well FII's bought huge in stock future 1030.40 Cr .Net OI decrease by 10043 contracts in stock future (15728 contract long buildup and 25771 contract short covering)
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welgro
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Post: #940   PostPosted: Tue May 05, 2015 8:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

oday nifty spot EOD NR7 day ....

Nifty spot if trade and hold above 8360 we may see sharp short covering rally..

Perhaps if cannot sustain this level we may another one range bound day.
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welgro
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Post: #941   PostPosted: Wed May 06, 2015 10:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

H&S update....
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welgro
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Post: #942   PostPosted: Thu May 07, 2015 8:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

FII sold huge in Cash (Net sell 1699.60 Crore)

FII sold in index future, index option but bought in stock future (Net sell 871.33 Crore)

DII bought huge in Cash (Net buy 1454.97 Crore)

FII’s sold 92256 contract of Index Future worth 1924 cores,62039 Long contract were squared off by FII’s and 30217 short contracts were added by FII’s. Net Open Interest decreased by 31822 contract.

Pro account (Brokers) also squared off their 11521 Long contracts and added 20794 short contracts.

Nifty Open Interest down by 13552 contracts, with decrease in price, most probably huge long liquidation.

FII bought 22854 contracts CE longs and 61401 contracts CE were shorted by them.

FII bought 36136 PE longs and 45274 PE were shorted by them.

FII's Net Open Interest increased by 165665 contract in index options.
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welgro
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Post: #943   PostPosted: Thu May 07, 2015 11:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Target mentioned in earlier post (7444)
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welgro
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Post: #944   PostPosted: Thu May 07, 2015 8:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

FII sold huge in Cash (Net sell 1360.69 Crore)

FII sold in index future, but bought in index option and stock future (Net buy 530.43 Crore)

DII bought huge in Cash (Net buy 1158.02 Crore)

FII’s sold 40945 contract of Index Future worth 946.64 cores,41798 Long contract were squared off by FII’s and 853 short contracts were squared off by FII’s. Net Open Interest decreased by 42651 contract.

Nifty Open Interest down by 49111 contracts, with decrease in price, almost all type of traders[Bears] (FII DII Brokers Client) Booked their 46211 short contracts.

FII squared off 23741 contracts CE longs and 49340 contracts CE were shorted by them.

FII bought 117993 contracts PE longs and 9209 contracts PE were shorted by them.

FII's Net Open Interest increased by 152801 contract in index options.
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welgro
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Post: #945   PostPosted: Thu May 07, 2015 8:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nifty spot trend resistance : 8180 -8196
Nifty spot trading resistance :8074 -8092

Nifty spot trading support : 7980 - 7966
Nifty spot trend support : 7931 -7918
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