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ridinghood
Yellow Belt
Joined: 16 Apr 2009
Posts: 724
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Post: #196  Posted: Sat Oct 07, 2017 6:20 pm Post subject: |
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| Thanks Amit. Will be careful. |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #197 Posted: Sat Oct 07, 2017 6:36 pm Post subject: |
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SOME OBSERVTIONS: validate yourself before relying
ICHIMOKU cloud shall narrow waver thin around NOV 7/8 allowing price to CHANGE trend ( either up or down) ..... so sideways still
BOLLINGER is sideways and taken support at lower band allowing price to move higher till touches upper band
PRICES Taken support of 100 SMA and little above sideways 20/34 EMAs
EW is suggesting 4th and hence 5th to unfold above with retrace ent to upside deeper and nearer to previous highs; as per another count 'g' of diametric still going up.... Yet to finish but g is the end of the wave up for the same
RSI Taken support at 30 and just above 50 allowing move to 70.......
( no negative divergence seen) !?
GAAN round number and big square 10000 would be focal for some time .... Market above 9600 orbit .......on semi annual pivots
Inverse H&S or on longer timeframe has pending 10700 FIRST target .
All this means don't get jittery with others ; while even if distribution Some euphoric moves to up are pending.... We may have smaller 5th / truncated !? However above ( may be little) to previous high of 10178 or so
So before a trend turn (up continuation or down) sideways markets can be expected
What are dollex ( breakout of Multi year triangle yet to happen!?) and USD INR charts ( 70 or 5 suggesting !?
Wait and enjoy!
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ridinghood
Yellow Belt
Joined: 16 Apr 2009
Posts: 724
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| Post: #198 Posted: Sat Oct 07, 2017 8:27 pm Post subject: |
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Thanks again for detailed view from a seasoned trader( you seem to be one) like you
regards |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #199 Posted: Mon Oct 09, 2017 8:55 pm Post subject: |
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| amitagg wrote: | Are u "riding".....
I have just sold few lots of 10000 call @ 75 ( with my view of sideways 50-70 points from focal of 9777 NS)
NS can rise to 10020 approx CMP 9958
( that's why I suggested call yesterday rather than shorting NF like people following JT thread would have done)
Lower risk despite selling options
Maintain sufficient margin
Don't over leverage ....
Note : it's a intra buy since 9936 and hence trade is to be taken with caution knowing it can result in losses......
@ corrected to 10020 from 10120 |
Nifty did rise to 10020 today ( as expected)
( what's not expected - markets to still unfold is move beyond 10120-30) hence cost for short call is 10075)
( short 10000 call taken at 75 now CMP 95/98 is carried with NO ACTIOnN required)
( maintain position sizing with respect to respect leverage always) |
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ridinghood
Yellow Belt
Joined: 16 Apr 2009
Posts: 724
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| Post: #200 Posted: Mon Oct 09, 2017 10:01 pm Post subject: |
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Thank you so much Amit for timely update
regards |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #201 Posted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 7:29 pm Post subject: |
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| amitagg wrote: | | ridinghood wrote: | Will appreciate if you give target of this down move as per your market reading
Regards |
Now we are near the level so posting
9677 plus minus 50 /70 points |
So the start of fall and bottom was guessed
Now what....
There should be NO imazing rally to say 10700-10800
It would struggle again around 10240-10340 etc and fall back to 9900/9700 EVEN if rise above 10130 to above the previous highs ....
That again can be an important observation IF IF turns correct subsequently
Meaning do not buy euphoric at 10300 unlike at 9600 |
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SURESHM
White Belt
Joined: 29 Jul 2017
Posts: 49
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| Post: #202 Posted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 8:50 pm Post subject: Ns |
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| Amitgg..10000ce shorte d...squar off? |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #203 Posted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 6:54 pm Post subject: Re: Ns |
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| SURESHM wrote: | | Amitgg..10000ce shorte d...squar off? |
No it had premium built in.... Which I shall eat even if the market wants to go against me ......( routine but sell is not my cup of tea)
Open positions are say supposing short position of 10000 cr was in 2 lots
2 lot NIFTY short 10000 PE @ 75 ( taken above 10030) now 24
2 lot NIFTy short 10000 PE @ 55 ( taken today after it breached 10130) now 38
1 lot short 10000 call @ 75 ( now 218) ( squared 50 percent one lot @ 188 and took following short BNF which acted as hedge for the loss)
1 lot short NIFTY 10200 call@ 79 today
Break even of 1 lot is 10200 CMP 10167 ( currently)
( I have to book profit in sold PEs and taken money options on short side PE in case market rallies beyond 10275 approx.) also read comment on "hard stop" below
On downside below 10000 10100 PE short would start hitting..... For which l shall likewise take opposite position say short 10000 call if falls below 10000.
Due to time factor, I may end in break even but with suitable leverage this can be managed.
Also when delta become low due to being OTM, you can take more risk and chose a nearer option. For instance if market is above 10240 just for example profits in 10100 can be booked. Also due to overnight uncertainties lower value options can be squared off when in profit and nearer to 10-20.
Bank nifty 24400 oct 8 PUT short 86 squared 47/43. ( closed) nearly extra loss of 188-150 assuming nifty ends as 10150 covered on shorted 1 lot 10000 cre squared at 188 instead of 150)
( for readers / followers perspective please consider 10150 as exit point with wherein there is loss of 75 points) : often with more trades and holding trades for a longer duration, you shall experience that losses which hitherto used to happen themselves die down when markets revert to the mean. To cater to whimsical rises and falls, I have another suitable " breaker" which I follow strictly.... For instance if market next week moves EVEN T+10 ticks above a certain level, all short CE shall be exited ( as whatever loss).
You can calculate if able to
For me instead of squaring of at breakout of levels which I once posted in Rita Pandits thread and my thread possible of how I calculate..... I take opposite short Side... For instead of squaring 10000 call I took 10100 put short ( so with confidence in particular levels one can know the direction)
Over time this kills the premium and " probability of market reversing and vice versa and making the shorted options in profits increased substantially
This is NOT done mathematically at the moment but I am able to trade weekly BNF based on particular BUY or SELL mode "point" each week.......without higher adjustments ( due to preferred shorter expiry good for shorters of CE/PE)
Note : in totally this ( shorting on funding available) gives a bread and butter trade while commodities gives the extra punch
Overall the risk has to be managed ( for instance I squared 50 percent quantity in loss knowing that at 10200 I will still NOT be in loss and took intra day gains on break of 10130 level for NF and 24350 /450 for BNF)
and
losses taken on any abrupt move... Which is not there in the present case
Next step: I shall book profit in 10000 PE
( I shall let run 10000 1 lot short and 10200 1 lot short CE)
I shall try to avoid booking profit in 10100 put.....
In effect instead of taking 60 point loss at 10140-10075 for shorted call, again even currently I have option of taking that loss IF market hits 10275 - my break even 10200 ( 10200 call would be at cost then also)
So while few took short at 9920 NF it always better to trade options and have reasonable consistent profits ( actually arising because it helps to kill JITTERY LOSS trades) |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #204 Posted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 7:33 pm Post subject: |
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Rate of change OF RISE : yes still to happen, is expected to decrease rather than increase here....with mirror C formation already complete at highs......since the rise from 9687
Also on weekly with breakout coming last week at 9936 and follow on rise this week, normal confluence would narrow
And market can can close just near to and above the open ( for the week)
Diwali would be the topping formation and Nov 7/8 time window would provide trigger for next turn ( likely down) - with target of 10240 + filters reached |
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SURESHM
White Belt
Joined: 29 Jul 2017
Posts: 49
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| Post: #205 Posted: Sat Oct 14, 2017 10:39 am Post subject: ns |
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In Nutttt Shell....doest it mean that ce what you suggested here to short@ 55 or 75 or 95 has to be booked in LOss.....
What trades you safeguarded is your personal trades. na |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #206 Posted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 7:26 pm Post subject: Re: ns |
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| SURESHM wrote: | In Nutttt Shell....doest it mean that ce what you suggested here to short@ 55 or 75 or 95 has to be booked in LOss.....
What trades you safeguarded is your personal trades. na |
No you have not understood what's written below
I shorted 10000 CE at 9930-9950 approx @75
Markets at 10200 would NOT give a Rs 1 loss also my dear
Since I have shorted 10000 PE above 10020 and 10100 PE above 10130.....
yes SL given was 10130 NS ... Why are u asking the question now .... You should have exited already...... It's a great thing that despite market moving from 9930 to 10130 loss ( ie your loss) is much less than 200 points and you should thank me for having given this SL level
I would tend to imagine 10275 NS holding resistance since breaking above 10265-10275 would mean 10350 shall be hit......( as you know I am short 10200 CE also at 75)
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SURESHM
White Belt
Joined: 29 Jul 2017
Posts: 49
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| Post: #207 Posted: Mon Oct 16, 2017 12:01 am Post subject: Ns |
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Hhha.tht was clever of u amitgg..you made us short one thing with sl..which got hit...while you safeguarded with hedge. Abd no loss for you.
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Niftyman
White Belt
Joined: 22 Mar 2015
Posts: 340
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| Post: #208 Posted: Mon Oct 16, 2017 10:13 am Post subject: Re: Ns |
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| SURESHM wrote: | Hhha.tht was clever of u amitgg..you made us short one thing with sl..which got hit...while you safeguarded with hedge. Abd no loss for you.
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Thats why, it is said
Never follow anyone blindly
(particularly in trading) |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #209 Posted: Mon Oct 16, 2017 8:23 pm Post subject: |
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With my prognosis of 10275 holding I exited in profit 10000PE and 10100 PE today at 20 and 30 respectively ( taken at 75 and 55-75 respectively)
I expect market to hold this level and Not continue the rise unabated
"Expect"
" not "
Further I took another lot short CE 10200 at 98
So effectively
I have 2 lot short 10200 @85
And 1 lot short 10000 CE @75
( in multiples thereof)
( average price for 10000 short is reduced to 10150 from 10200 since I exited the short puts above 0)
If market moves above 10275-85 NS I " MAY" short 10300 PE and take a bullish position ( for few points gains) stop shall be 10210 NS
( this shall negate any further loss proportionate to delta of ITM 10300 PE which may become OTM if moves above 10300 reducing the cushion)
It's all clear beforehand
In one expiry only ONCE market need to move things in my favour while I have moved with the market and changed my positions .... To adapt to breakouts above in this case to my " PRE IDENTIFIED " levels ( upon this move the are often 2 possibilities : if market moves in your direction , first time immediately after your opening the position , you exit in profit
If market ( like in current month) moves against your position, then one can cover at cost and make a losing preposition neutral
If market is vey trending against your position .... However not " FULLY BULLISH" to hit your special SL trigger each week for all positions, one can wait ( as one should when one is SELLING options) to
"enjoy the 'probability ' of a sideways and mean reversion market"
" probability " not " certainty" |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #210 Posted: Tue Oct 17, 2017 9:14 pm Post subject: |
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No change in position
For 2 days 10240-50 has been resisted
One turn down next week to 10167 when is probable will do for overall position
Would exit at near 100-125 point loss above 10285 ......for 1 lot 10000 CE ( which was first trade) ( similar to hard stop level given at time of trade trigger of 10130 when market was at 9950) ie 10130-10075 = 55+ premium of 10000CE at time it crossed 10130 NS
So have only taken advantage of probability of a reversion .......which it yet to happen..... In many trades over period of time..... This does happen which helps to kill the loss trades in those months .......
Let's see
With bigger theta is play now 10200 CE would not have much prelim left and have only nominal loss of market moves above 10275.....
That's all |
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