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Nifty long term pivots and thoughts |
vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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Post: #16  Posted: Wed Jan 04, 2012 11:20 am Post subject: |
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then let's hope we get to 5400+ in jan itself! Would appreciate if you contribute more often than once in six months  |
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Arul Zen
White Belt
Joined: 23 Jan 2008
Posts: 38
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| Post: #17 Posted: Wed Jan 04, 2012 1:25 pm Post subject: |
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spec ., Thanks for the update
Arul |
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KatrinaaDP
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Joined: 11 Sep 2010
Posts: 95
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| Post: #18 Posted: Wed Jan 04, 2012 1:32 pm Post subject: Re: So where are we now ? |
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| Speculator wrote: | In my last update in June, i has posted this long term analysis of Nifty with a chart showing EOD SSPS pivots. We were then in a established downtrend and we continue to remain pretty much in the same state now.
I recently read that the FIIs lost about 2 lac crores in the Indian stock market since Nifty topped out in Nov 2010. The weekly pivot break in Jan 2011 was the last chance for these folks to get out. But they didn't. That's what makes a market. Respecting a simple weekly pivot break could have saved 2 lac crores eh ? 
The current EOD pivot is around 5134 and the DT line comes around 5350-5400. Those are the two barriers to cross before we start talking about a bull market again. Until then, the bear rules !
On a side note, RBI is done with it's monetary tightening. If the rate cut cycle begins, that should bring in liquidity to kick start a rally. As always the pivots will be my technical guide to determine when that transition from bear to bull has occurred. Not based on some whim, opinion or arrogance.
Best of luck with your trading for 2012 ! |
very good thanks |
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drsureshbs
White Belt
Joined: 22 Oct 2008
Posts: 58
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| Post: #19 Posted: Thu Jan 05, 2012 12:39 am Post subject: Re: So where are we now ? |
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| Speculator wrote: | In my last update in June, i has posted this long term analysis of Nifty with a chart showing EOD SSPS pivots. We were then in a established downtrend and we continue to remain pretty much in the same state now.
I recently read that the FIIs lost about 2 lac crores in the Indian stock market since Nifty topped out in Nov 2010. The weekly pivot break in Jan 2011 was the last chance for these folks to get out. But they didn't. That's what makes a market. Respecting a simple weekly pivot break could have saved 2 lac crores eh ?
The current EOD pivot is around 5134 and the DT line comes around 5350-5400. Those are the two barriers to cross before we start talking about a bull market again. Until then, the bear rules !
On a side note, RBI is done with it's monetary tightening. If the rate cut cycle begins, that should bring in liquidity to kick start a rally. As always the pivots will be my technical guide to determine when that transition from bear to bull has occurred. Not based on some whim, opinion or arrogance.
Best of luck with your trading for 2012 ! |
SPEC SIR
This thread by u saved quite a bit of my money as i stopped averageing my investments. I whole heartedly thank full to u for that.Talking about FIIs u said weekly swing pivotals broke in jan 2011 I just could not understand it and could not make out on weekly charts. pl sir can u explain with a charts. Sir pl spare sometime for me\us when u r free
Regards
dr suresh shetty D.K |
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Arul Zen
White Belt
Joined: 23 Jan 2008
Posts: 38
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| Post: #20 Posted: Tue Jan 24, 2012 12:45 pm Post subject: trend is your friend until it bends.. |
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Today nifty broke its EOD pivot 5134.. Still to break the trend line Resistance which is around 5400.
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Sanchit
White Belt
Joined: 03 Jul 2010
Posts: 46
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| Post: #21 Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 4:12 am Post subject: Re: trend is your friend until it bends.. |
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Dear All,
I too had the same query.
Does it mean that now we are in a new and nascent bull market?
 
| arul kumar wrote: | Today nifty broke its EOD pivot 5134.. Still to break the trend line Resistance which is around 5400.
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Speculator
Expert
Joined: 15 Apr 2008
Posts: 149
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| Post: #22 Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 7:50 am Post subject: |
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arul,
Yes, today we broke the pivot on both EOD and Weekly charts. 5134 was also the weekly pivot. That means we are on a daily and weekly uptrend now. For a confirmed bull market i would like to see a daily close above the 5134 pivot, weekly close above 5134 and a break of the DT line which comes around 5400-5425 now. |
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Sanchit
White Belt
Joined: 03 Jul 2010
Posts: 46
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| Post: #23 Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 7:57 am Post subject: Thank You! |
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Thanks a lot Spec Sir!
 
| Speculator wrote: | arul,
Yes, today we broke the pivot on both EOD and Weekly charts. 5134 was also the weekly pivot. That means we are on a daily and weekly uptrend now. For a confirmed bull market i would like to see a daily close above the 5134 pivot, weekly close above 5134 and a break of the DT line which comes around 5400-5425 now. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #24 Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 8:35 am Post subject: |
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| since many guys ae posting about nifty, I would request all to state whether NF or NS. |
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vinst
Black Belt
Joined: 09 Jan 2007
Posts: 3303
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| Post: #25 Posted: Mon Jan 30, 2012 7:36 pm Post subject: |
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Nifty has closed below DSP pivot of 5134/35 after going above DSP and entering uptrend.
As per my observation on 30min TF, such behaviour usually leads to sideways price movement.
let's see whether it really happens on daily TF also. |
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