iCharts Discussions

[Speculator]

I just wanted to update the EOD pivots on Nifty, as a brain exercise for myself and at the same time provide a long term picture of the market from my Pivot system perspective.

Just to be clear this is not a forecast as i don't predict anything about the future, nor is it any analysis as that would imply that there would be conclusions. It's just observation based on my system and classical TA.

As we can see from the second chart, Jan 2010 was the first time the pivot broke on the daily charts. That concluded the first phase of the bull market and an intermediate term correction followed. Phase II of bull concluded when the 5966 pivot broke in Nov 2010. Since then we have been in a bear market. From the pivot system perspective, until 6210 pivot is taken out, we will continue to remain in a long term downtrend a.k.a bear market. A break above 6210 would mean a resumption of the bull market and then we would be in uncharted territory, where "Sky is the limit"

From a classical trendline analysis perspective (shown in the first chart), the bear rally from Feb 2011 lows, got rejected from the controlling DT line at NF 6000. It subsequently broke the uptrend line in May 2011 and a retest failure occurred in June 2011. Now in order for any bull move to occur, we need to move thru layers and layers of resistance. First we need to recapture the broken UTL, then break the DTL and then break the controlling pivot at 6210. Not an impossible task. But a lot of long term investors are trapped in this decline and there would be significant overhead selling we move up these resistances. The big question as always is "Where will all the money come from to break thru those barriers in a tightening monetary policy accross the globe?" Time will tell.....

I will update this thread again when something of Long term significance happens.

- Speculator

[vinst]

Hi Spec,

Thanks for posting your analysis on daily TF which nicely simulates behaviour of weekly pure pivots .
I greatly appreciate your work.

regard,
vin

[ronypan]

Thanks Sirji..

[ashis]

Dear Speculator sir,
Realy great work.
Surely it will be helpful for long term investors.
regards
Ashis

[Arul Zen]

spec., Thanks for the post..btw wasn't it the pivot was 5966 when price breached in nov 2010?
Thanks and regards
Arul

[Speculator]

[Shahii]

Nice analysis Spec.... Please comment on this snapshot too.... We are still going above the UTL of this long term channel.. If we break this channel downwards then valley is the limit

[sandew]

Hi Spec,

This I fathom is what you might have narrated in the meeting at Bangalore which Rainbow organised, and I missed - about the daily set up.

what ema / ma is plotted on the eod nifty, please

[Speculator]

sandew,

What we discussed in Bangalore icharts meet was different.

What i have shown in this EOD charts is based on 34 ema pivots.

-Speculator

[OldMonk]

amazing work by spec as always!!!!

Many thanks
Oldmonk

[vinay28]

Dear Speculator

As a novice, trying to learn something, I did nifty trend for a longer past period considering symmetrical triangle and I uploading it though I don't know how to interpret it. Can you advice?

[mdismail777]

hello guys i am from bangalore, working in dubai. i am trying to learn the stock market. I found the speculator has done great job in teaching others. good luck.

[infinity]

Spec sir,

While reading your SB comments; I reached this thread & then I was referring to weekly historical charts of S&P. I noticed similar pattern in S&P during week starting 28th Jun'10 when "Pivot break" happened which was may be first phase of bull market. & Phase II happened yesterday.

for sharing your observation.

with warm regards,

anant

[Arul Zen]

From now on 6000 is our long term down swing pivot...

[Speculator]

In my last update in June, i has posted this long term analysis of Nifty with a chart showing EOD SSPS pivots. We were then in a established downtrend and we continue to remain pretty much in the same state now.

I recently read that the FIIs lost about 2 lac crores in the Indian stock market since Nifty topped out in Nov 2010. The weekly pivot break in Jan 2011 was the last chance for these folks to get out. But they didn't. That's what makes a market. Respecting a simple weekly pivot break could have saved 2 lac crores eh ?

The current EOD pivot is around 5134 and the DT line comes around 5350-5400. Those are the two barriers to cross before we start talking about a bull market again. Until then, the bear rules !

On a side note, RBI is done with it's monetary tightening. If the rate cut cycle begins, that should bring in liquidity to kick start a rally. As always the pivots will be my technical guide to determine when that transition from bear to bull has occurred. Not based on some whim, opinion or arrogance.

Best of luck with your trading for 2012 !