iCharts Discussions

[adwani1984]

Hi Guys,

My name is Dharmendra Adwani. Last week i met with fellow and learn about some positional trade in nifty and wouls like to share with you.

He told me that if you want to do trade in nifty future then first three days Highest High and Lowest Low are very important.

Eg: In october month first three days were 1st october 3rd october and 4th october.

In that days Nifty HIghest high was 5842 and lowest low was 5718.

Now if the nifty give close above on highest high then it will give highest high on last three days of month
or
if if the nifty give close Below on lowest then it will give lowest low on last three days of month

The last three days of these month will be 29th october 30th october and 31 october.

Now lets see what will happen this month i will send you the track record of some month where it had worked nicely and give me some hansome return.

If you have any query please give your suggestion.

Regards
Dharmendra Adwani

[SP50]

Keep posting..

[apka]

i did not get the part of when nifty gives highest high close and lowest low close?

Can u give example now that fut has closed below 5718 few times ... So u mean last 3 days any day nifty fut nov would should 5718 ?

Im nor clear about this. Sept closing last 3 days was higher than wht its 1st 3 days were.. So how this works for trading, didnt understand.

Please clarify and help me understand.

[vinay28]

apka, I think you misunderstood him. What he says is that if 5718 is broken (and it has been already but not 5812) Oct low will be in the last 3 days.

What is not clear is what happens if both are broken later. Clearly, the last to be broken should govern.

What's more, we don't know whether such levels were ever broken only in the last three days and not earlier, though seems doubtful since market can't be so flat throughout the month.

[apka]

oh i see now. Thanks for clarying. Ya those points are there.

[dharmeshtr]

Seems to be interesting...Pls keep posting.

Thanx,
Dtr

[saumya12]

Seems interesting.
But my query is
We should consider first three days of calender month or the EXPIRY month, as the future prices are based on expiry month and not calender month.

[vinay28]

good point saumya

[dharmeshtr]

[NittinP]

Inetersting thread... I have all NIFTY EOD data from year Jan 2005 till 10 Oct 2012... Let me run the macro and pull the result... Lets see what it gives...

[jaigan21]

Nittin Ji I am eagerly weighting for your back test result.

[adwani1984]

We will take first three days of the month and last three days
eg: for this month 1st oct, 3rd oct and 4th oct.
and last three days for calculation will be 29th,30th and 31st oct.

[NittinP]

I was busy, hence unable to do much work on this... It need lot of number crunching macro development.

Good News is I have pulled all information required for analysis..

I am attaching file... If anyone gets time they can look into it...

Can't attach file with full data as there is limit of 1.2MB only
Thanks and regards,

NP

[NittinP]

Below is the analysis

Total Trading Month = 93

TRUE/in %;FALSE/in %;Total/in %
F3DH=MEH/ in %;18/19.35;75/80.65;93/100
F3DL=MEL/in %;28/30.11;65/69.89;93/100
L3DH=MEH/ in %;24/25.81;69/74.19;93/100
L3DL=MEL/ in %;9/9.68;84/90.32;93/100

Conclusion:
1] 19.5% times Monthly high was created in first 3 day of the month
2] 30% times Monthly low was created in first 3 day of the month
3] 26% times Monthly high was created in last 3 day of the month
4] 10% times monthly low was created in last 3 day of the month

If you see the number, its pretty clear that if you go long in first 3 days of the month, you chances are high of making money keeping first 3 day low as SL

Also, most of time low was not created in last 3 days, hence you stay long during this period as well.

Another important finding, only 30% times high was created in last 3 days, so if one is long, one need to book proft before start of last 3 days.

Its my observation, that 3rd week onwards market goes sideways. Need to support this with numbers..

Regards,

NP
4]

[jaigan21]

Nittin Ji, Thanks a lot for taking so much pain for back testing and producing result for all.