iCharts Discussions

[rsnagesh]

SENSEX APPRECIATION YEAR ON YEAR BASIS BASED ON CALENDAR YEARS

DATE ---CLOSING POINTS --- ANNUAL RETURNS
(IN%)
31-12-2000 --- 3972.12 --- BASE POINTS
21-09-2001 --- @@2600.12 --- -34.54

31-12-2001 --- 3262.33 --- 25.47

31-12-2002 --- 3377.28 --- 3.52

31-12-2003 --- 5838.96 --- 72.89

31-12-2004 --- 6602.69 --- 13.08

30-12-2005 --- 9397.93 --- 42.34

29-12-2006 --- 13786.91 --- 46.70

31-12-2007 --- 20286.99 --- 47.15

31-12-2008 ---*MINIMUM UPSIDE 26562.69 --- 30.94

--- *MAXIMUM UPSIDE 29670.66 --- 46.26

@@ LOWEST EVER CLOSING POINTS OF THE DECADE 1998-2008.

IN THE MONTH OF JAN 2008 BOTH NIFTY AND SENSEX HAD HIT THE PROJECTED LEVELS OF NIFTY AT 6357 AND IN SENSEX AT 21000 PLUS AND ALSO FELL DOWN DRASTICALLY AS PER THE NOTES GIVEN EARLIER. SIMILARLY, WE MAY COME ACROSS A CONSOLIDATION PHASE FOR THE WHOLE MONTH OF FEB 2008 OR EVEN TILL MIDDLE OF MARCH AND MAXIMUM TO AN EXTENT TILL THE END OF MARCH 2008.THEN THEREAFTER, ONE CAN EXPECT A BREAK OUT OF NIFTY AT 6270 - 6357 AND IN SENSEX BETWEEN 20869.78, 20873.33 -- 21206.77 RANGE IN THE MONTH OF AUGUST OR IN OCTOBER 2008 IS ON THE CARDS.

NIFTY LOWEST TARGET BASED ON RECORDED EARNINGS SO FAR. LOWEST PROBABILITY
PE RATIO --- EPS --- TARGET


14.92 --- 235.29 --- 3510.53
17.2 --- 235.29 --- 4046.99
18.43 --- 235.29 --- 4336.39
18.91 --- 235.29 --- 4448.49

NIFTY MAXIMUM LOWEST TARGET BASED ON NIFTY'S 2007-2008
FORWARD EARNINGS (ASSUMPTION WORST CASE SCENERIO)
PE RATIO--- EPS --- TARGET

14.92 --- 254.79 --- 3801.47
17.2 --- 254.79 --- 4382.39
18.43 --- 254.79 --- 4695.78
18.91 --- 254.79 --- 4818.08

NIFTY HIGHEST TARGET PROJECTED BASED ON 2008-2009 FORWARD EARNINGS
PE RATIO--- EPS --- TARGET --- PE RATIO--- EPS --- TARGET
14.92 --- 293.01--- 4371.71 --- 14.92 --- 316.54 --- 4722.78
17.20 --- 293.01--- 5039.77 --- 17.20 --- 316.54 --- 5444.49
18.43 --- 293.01--- 5400.17 --- 18.43 --- 316.54 --- 5833.83
18.91 --- 293.01--- 5540.82 --- 18.91 --- 316.54 --- 5985.77
21.28 --- 293.01--- 6235.25 --- 21.28 --- 316.54 --- 6735.97
21.77 --- 293.01--- 6378.83 --- 21.77 --- 316.54 --- 6891.08
23.62 --- 293.01--- 6920.90 --- 23.62 --- 316.54 --- 7476.67
24.78 --- 293.01--- 7260.79 --- 24.78 --- 316.54 --- 7843.86
25.77 --- 293.01--- 7550.87 --- 25.77 --- 316.54 --- 8157.24
26.35 --- 293.01--- 7720.81 --- 26.35 --- 316.54 --- 8340.83
27.69 --- 293.01--- 8113.45 --- 27.69 --- 316.54 --- 8764.99
27.80 --- 293.01--- 8145.68 --- 27.80 --- 316.54 --- 8799.81
28.29 --- 293.01--- 8289.25 --- 28.29 --- 316.54 --- 8954.92

28.47**--- 293.01--- 8341.99 --- 28.47 --- 316.54 ***9011.89

*LEVELS PROJECTED BASED ON SENSEX 30 STOCKS FORWARD YEAR'S EARNINGS.

**HIGHEST EVER PE RATIO ACCOUNTED FOR THE PAST 10 YEARS
TIME FRAME EXACTLY ON 11TH FEBRUARY 2000 BEFORE KETAN PAREKH SCAM GOT ACCOUNTED IN BOTH *SENSEX ***NIFTY AND IN INDIAN MARKET.

A STUDY AND FORECASTED READINGS BASED ON EARNINGS
BY R.S. NAGESH .

SOURCES.: 1) EXCHANGES AND SEBI WEBSITES.

2) SENSEX AND NIFTY EPS HAS BEEN FORECASTED WITH THE YEAR ON
YEAR GROWTH RATE FOR A MINIMUM OF 15.01% AND TO A MAXIMUM OF 24.24%. ON THE ESCALATION FRONT.

3) THIS KIND OF FORECASTING HAS TO BE REVIEWED ON
EVERY FORTHCOMING QUARTERLY RESULTS OF SENSEX
COMPOSITE COMPANIES, PREVAILING SENTIMENTS,
TECHNICALS AND ALL SORT OF UNCERTAINTIES WHICH
WILL AFFECT AN UPTREND AND ALSO THE CURRENT &
FUTURE BULLISH MOMENTUM.

4) SENSEX AND THE NIFTY WOULD PROBABLY BE CLOSING AT
26562.69 AND 8016.51 ON OR BEFORE 28-02-2009
RESPECTIVELY.

[ramtrade]

As per one of the leading research firm, India GDP is expected to grow at a slower pace of 8.3% for 2008-2009.

Sources Economic Times: India recieved FDI of $30 billion during the 10th five year plan which is almost double of FDI of worth $26.33 billion during the ninth five year plan. The top five sectors attracting the FDI are Services, Computer Software and Hardware, Telecommunications, Construction and Automobile industry.

As you all might be aware that FDI is a long term investment and stays in the contry for a much much longer duration than the FII investment in the stock markets....

Thanks
Ramesh

[vinst]

RSN sir,

Kudos to you for meticulously keeping and sharing your view. It will be kept in attention.

regards,
vin

[nvksrinivas]

rsn

good research / as per the data available our eps is growing but at a decelarating pace if u observe . So considering that closing of march and eps are projection are true and are atleast maintained we may see this range of 4700-5200 till our economy improves which are observed by our quarterly results. The fact of 126 dollar /barrel is the most worrying factor, inflation of 7.6 also another factor ( due this inflation Mr. Dhoot told that demand had slowed down). So better to be on short side of the market for medium term and long or short depending on short term
nvksrinivas

[mayurnsk]

Hello

rsnagesh Sir


Wow good research. Sir even elliot wave theory suggest same thing. Thanx alot putting it in from fundamental perspective. I agree completely with your analysis. As as pr elliot wave 5th wave is yet come let us first finish 4wave


regards
Mayuresh Jahagirdar
Nasik
Maharashtra