iCharts Discussions

[anand1234]

hi......

wish all of u very very happy dewali................

as rbi made high repo rate............that can take banking sector to come dwn.............and also realty sector to come dwn..........both can take NF come dwn.........in NOV may b the dwn side month........(instead of NF not crossing 5200 with volume)..............let c

thanks
anand

[ajayhkaul]

Happy Diwali to you anand1234

Here is a bearish story for you . Enjoy !

The Story of Goldilocks and the Three Bears

Once upon a time, there was a little girl named Goldilocks. She went for a walk in the forest. Pretty soon, she came upon a house. She knocked and, when no one answered, she walked right in.

At the table in the kitchen, there were three bowls of porridge. Goldilocks was hungry. She tasted the porridge from the first bowl.

"This porridge is too hot!" she exclaimed.

So, she tasted the porridge from the second bowl.

"This porridge is too cold," she said

So, she tasted the last bowl of porridge.

"Ahhh, this porridge is just right," she said happily and she ate it all up.

After she'd eaten the three bears' breakfasts she decided she was feeling a little tired. So, she walked into the living room where she saw three chairs. Goldilocks sat in the first chair to rest her feet.

"This chair is too big!" she exclaimed.

So she sat in the second chair.

"This chair is too big, too!" she whined.

So she tried the last and smallest chair.

"Ahhh, this chair is just right," she sighed. But just as she settled down into the chair to rest, it broke into pieces!

Goldilocks was very tired by this time, so she went upstairs to the bedroom. She lay down in the first bed, but it was too hard. Then she lay in the second bed, but it was too soft. Then she lay down in the third bed and it was just right. Goldilocks fell asleep.

As she was sleeping, the three bears came home.

"Someone's been eating my porridge," growled the Papa bear.

"Someone's been eating my porridge," said the Mama bear.

"Someone's been eating my porridge and they ate it all up!" cried the Baby bear.

"Someone's been sitting in my chair," growled the Papa bear.

"Someone's been sitting in my chair," said the Mama bear.

"Someone's been sitting in my chair and they've broken it all to pieces," cried the Baby bear.

They decided to look around some more and when they got upstairs to the bedroom, Papa bear growled, "Someone's been sleeping in my bed,"

"Someone's been sleeping in my bed, too" said the Mama bear

"Someone's been sleeping in my bed and she's still there!" exclaimed Baby bear.

Just then, Goldilocks woke up and saw the three bears. She screamed, "Help!" And she jumped up and ran out of the room. Goldilocks ran down the stairs, opened the door, and ran away into the forest. And she never returned to the home of the three bears.

THE END

Moral of the story : Market is A LEADING INDICATOR.It is impossible to co-relate current news to daily movements every time. Its as good as a coin toss over extended period of guesses. Market is up 500 points from the time you targeted 4500 on the downside.I hope you noticed. Sure, someday it will get to 4500 also and to 6300 too!....

[vinay28]

[anand1234]

[ajayhkaul]

Hi anand1234 -- this is NOT meant to be a criticism-- just a discussion on bearish sentiment.

[shaadoo]

Hi ajay

Can u explain clearly the MOTTO of story as i didnt got it.

regards

shaadoo

[ajayhkaul]

Sure Shadoo....

Goldilocks = trader/investor
Jungle = The jungle that is the market / investment world
Enter a house in the jungle= adopt a belief( or only that news which you have access to and make some sense out of it) which is a part of the big picture( Big Picture =the house belongs to bears, but Goldilocks does not know that).

Sampling and using food/sitting in the chairs/bed etc = we adopt whatever suits our beliefs

After getting tired , Goldilocks goes to sleep = following a belief might lull you into complacency and you will not know when the bears/bulls actually arrive. In this story the bears arrive after Goldilocks has settled down with whatever suits her . The bullish investor may realise very late that the sentiment has changed . ditto for bearish investor.

That's why we must constantly ask ourselves --- what is it that I believe that is not true anymore? This means that we may look at some 'signals'( technicals or fundamental/news etc) that may no longer co-relate to the actual market behavior and we should be able to sense that AND CHANGE OUR BELIEF.

Hope to have replied to you sufficiently.

anand1234 has been bearish towards 4500 or lower. But in the meantime market has jumped 500 points . So when is he going to change his belief and use the bullish run for profits? If he gets in late , he will be holding a more than half burned match stick - or just skip this bull run and wait till things turn around. Maybe he is more skilled at trading the downturn.

The story is as told to kids at nursery school and i just cut paste from a googled page. But it reflects some part of our trading - ie changing market sentiment and our beliefs.

In case anand1234 changes because of this argument , then this is just an additional info that can turn an investor's belief just as it happens to all of us that we change based on peer pressure, herd behavior , planted news. biased 'experts' , rating agencies etc etc.... information overload that our brain is not designed to handle.

[vinay28]

Very well explained Ajay!

[shaadoo]

THANKS AJAY,
GOT THE MOTTO AS U EXPLAINED IN A VERY SIMPLER MANNER.

THNXZZ AGAIN


SHAADOO

[vinay28]

sgxnifty 5428

[ajayhkaul]

[anand1234]

hi...........all

for to day.........NF future below 4992..............will b free fall??............may took 4940 level .........took causion on that level..............

thanks
anand

[anand1234]

hi..........all

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Monday that "Europe must move step-by-step towards political union, calling the euro zone debt crisis the continent’s “toughest hour since World War Two”.

In a one-hour address to thousands of delegates from her Christian Democrats (CDU), Merkel offered no new ideas for resolving the crisis that has forced bailouts of Greece, Ireland and Portugal, and has stirred worries about the survival of the 17-state currency zone

The two-day party meeting was supposed to focus on education policy but was dominated from the outset by the euro zone’s debt crisis, which showed no signs of abating despite the naming of new technocrat governments in Greece and Italy"


this wii effect our mkt also??............let c

thanks
anand

[vinay28]

Anand, soon after your post nifty made a sharp upmove of 50 points.

[Vinodz]

soon after

upmove of 50

what does that say ??
anand , vinay
change of trend ?
wht should be strategy now