iCharts Discussions

[pradeepgolfer]

THe NIFTY futures was in a small trading range.This showed neither bears nor the bulls were in control or that both were not interested in attempting to take control.After a down day bears not coming out in full force, clearly showed that that the bears were neutered the day before.As mentioned in my update yesterday, the high volume was indication that the bulls got active at a higher level.The Dow recovering from a down opening the day before yesterday was another reason why the bears stayed away yesterday.It was apparent to an astute observer that the Dow would be up in the next trading session and up it was.

All this sets up nicely for a test of 5489 today.Do not sell at higher levels, since it is quite likely bears will stay away today also, since their confidence level is low.THe bulls may take this opportunity to take some rest and after a good opening nf may slip into a range with an upward bias, as latecomers buy the dips.

[pradeepgolfer]

The NF tested the high of 5489 as expected on Wednesday and the bulls are firmly in control.The intraday movement of NF,with the low of the day being made in the opening and the test of the low did not come close to that low.That NF did not close above 5489 was probably done to give bears hope but with the DOW not falling last trading session,it will probably close above that supposedly important level today.As described in my updates since some time now,the success of the bulls in protecting the lower levels,was clear evidence that the break of that level of 5489 was a formality.What may have gone noticed was that NF closed at a weekly high and the last time it closed above this level on the weekly, was 18/1/2008

5553.90 is the last stronghold of the bears and with the bulls developing enough fire power,that too should be conquered.Market is a drama queen and the contest between bulls and bears will be, as usual, enthralling.

Keep a stop of 5393-because strange things do happen in the market-and enjoy.

[ridinghood]

thnx for the update!
for the moment nifty seems to be moving perfectly in tune with ur analysis!

regs
ridinghood

[pradeepgolfer]

DOW was down 144 points due to some 'ugly data'.After 5 week rally this down moves appears to be a test of that rally.THe fall stopped short of breaking this week's low so it appears bulls have defended lower levels sucessfully.

NIFTY bulls are in control but that control will be tested today.A breakout pull back may be expected but this will only stenghten the technicals of the upmove.I expect levels below 5500 to be supported by the bulls and positions can be built up for intraday trade if NF drops below 5500 in early morning trade.A stop well below 5489 should be put because trade can be expected to be emotionally driven early today. A stop of 5469 is what I suggest.

Shorting should be avoided.

[pradeepgolfer]

Nifty had a small up day on Monday, which would have added salt to the wounds of the bears-bulls unwilling to give even a small victory to the bears.
Dow was .....it does not matter what the Dow was...this is EXPIRY WEEK.With 5600 calls having ten times the open interest as 5600 puts,traditional wisdom suggests that 5600 will be resistance.However, the market action in the last few weeks, has not left the bulls,by any stretch of imagination, over extended and it strongly suggests that 5600 will be left fairly far behind, by the day of expiry.The call writers will be made toast.This should provide a macabre background to the bulls charge.

It mat be a bit early but those who follow me in this forum would not be surprised by these developments:I had mentioned a figure of 5600 on 30 July:see http://www.icharts.in/forum/5300-will-not-break-5600-will-break-upside-t2595.html


Remember:
The money is not in the thinking, it is in the waiting-Jessee Livermore

[ridinghood]

pg

thnx for the update

today nifty made LL nd LH so worried somewhat as i have some buy position in 5500 calls so tense as to how nifty will close by the fno expiry
on 26-08-2010.

you have been vry confident till now but this painfully low range in nifty
is really killing the confidence of nifty traders.lastly in july expiry nifty moved in the range of 252 pts. in august the range hasnt been able to cross even the miserly 200 pts so far with fno expiry just 2 days away!

so looking from guidance from you.

regs

ridinghood

[pradeepgolfer]

Dow again recovered from lows so let us see the close and see in the morning

[ridinghood]

ok boss

[pradeepgolfer]

nifty low was 5489 which is major support since it was major resistance and so it should not go below 5500.Operators have to make people go short and trap them so nifty has technically improved

As of today no cause to worry.THe fall in US markets is already discounted in nifty.

[rrsekhar]

dear pradeep - u'r posts are most enlightening. keep up the good work. hats off to you.
regards

rrsekhar

by the way what's u'r handicap or r u a pro? my handicap swings from 14 to 16.

[pradeepgolfer]

Since 2004 I have not played-my handicap was 9-12.I played for 20 years but after I got married i have not played.Which course do you play at.

regards

[rrsekhar]

Kochi, Kerala.

[pradeepgolfer]

DOWN was up-Dow should be renamed DOWN.

Dow seems to like being in 5 figures and crude, metals have botomed out.

So the downside in nifty will not continue.Normally expiry day is a quiet affair since opeartors are busy shifting positions.

[acharyams]

waiting for ur update eagerly

[acharyams]

prodipji,
nice prediction, 6200 is not far away.