iCharts Discussions

[pradeepgolfer]

In the last 4 days, NF has tried to go above 5476 twice and closed below that level.On 7 July, NF made a multi year high at 5453; more than one month later,the latest close of NF is 5460.This lack of followthrough should make the bulls extremely uneasy.With NF at 30 month highs,the 5 day average of volume traded in NF, is at a one year low.NF has made 3 highs very close together,which some people call a wedge,with volume declining and confirming the wedge. All of this makes for an extremely bearish outlook and the obvious trade is a positional short.
Any highly experienced trader will tell you, that the obvious trade, is 100% sure,TO FAIL.In the markets, it is highly desirable, to not only look the gift horse in the mouth, but also in the backside.This particular case is no different.

Six days after NF made a high of 5453, NF made a large bullish candle and a high of 5459.The next day's gap up open at 5476, was the high for that day and out of the next 5 days, 4 days were relatively big down days.The next time NF crossed 5476 the high was 5483 and was a tiny down day.THe day after that was another tiny down day.This is clear indication that either the bears were not aggressively selling as earlier or that their supply was gratefully soaked up by the bulls.The next day was a bullish candle, which made a high of 5489.The day after that, was a inside doji day and not a down day, showing bulls are, almost, in total control. NIFTY SPOT,however,had a relatively large bearish candle inisde day.Perhaps NF was bought while stocks were sold.

In view of the above, it is recommended that large long positions be built up in NF and also in NIFTY heavyweight stocks specially those that have been underforming or going down and are oversold.Reliance is one that come to mind.

All short positions should be reversed. Call writers may either write their last will and testament or close their positions.

STOP LOSSES for longs are BELOW 5431,5422,5369 (NF levels). Choose one according to your risk profile.

[rrsekhar]

thank you pradeep sir

[pradeepgolfer]

welcome

[smartcancerian]

Sir, Pl help me identify 5422 SL for longs..other two figures are clear to me..instead of 5422..i feel 5411 is quite better..(looking thru EOD charts)

Thanx,

[pradeepgolfer]

Stop loss is quite personal and I have given suggestions.
If you are more comfortable with something else please go ahead with it.
Stops must be below the levels suggested-many traders will put it one tick below, some will put it 3 ticks,for commodities I sometimes keep it as much as 15 ticks below.I like to increase the chances that the stop will not trigger and it will be costly for the operator to go for it.
My personal experience with tight stops is not good because I am not a compulsive trader and once the stop triggers, it is difficult for me emotionally to take another position.So there are various factors at play when a stop is chosen.
It all depends on personal experience with the security concerned.Hope that helps-if not refer back to me

[ridinghood]

pg

thnx a lot 4 ur reassuring nifty update!

we look forward to more of such timely updates

thnx again!

regs

ridinghood












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[pradeepgolfer]

ridinghood
a stop loss is a must and is more reassuring than an update because of market volatility.
Right now dow looks bad and may not recover so tommorow bears will be in control.
I will update again tomorrow

[pradeepgolfer]

NIFTY fall yesterday shows the market was not impressed by my analysis.
The market has given it's verdict. Accept it. And trade it.


Dow is down. Today it is impotant day to see if there is follow through.
5369 nf level and 5300 spot level will be tested.All longs should be protected with a stop below these levels.
IF 5300 SPOT IS BROKEN CONCLUSIVELY 4700 WILL BE TESTED

Take care

[pradeepgolfer]

NF opened down and finished up.
This is called a succesful test of 5369 since it shows the bulls are willing to defend that level
Also there was no followthrough in the bears action and either they have booked their profits or their selling was absorbed by the bulls.In either case it is reasonable to assume that the bulls are in control.
I had suggested a stop below 5369-some of your stops may have been triggered.As writen earlier stop losses are very dicretionary and you need to take into consideration your personal preferences as well as the behaviour of the security concerned.
Unforunately triggerring of the stops in this case does not indicate the trend has turned down.
Longs can be taken again with a stop below 5363, NF level.

[ridinghood]

pg

thnx again

regs

ridinghood

[pradeepgolfer]

all the best of luck THKS

[pradeepgolfer]

on weekly charts of nf there are 3 price pivots of relevance.
5271 nf is above this
5450
5553
a close above 5553 will mean the last weekly resistance level would have been crossed.THe next weekly resistance would be all time highs

[pradeepgolfer]

AGGRESSIVELY BUY NIFTY FUTURES FOR POSITIONAL TRADE, TARGET 6200, STOP 5350.

The reasons for this call are given below:

I continue with my unique brand of non technical observation (sic) as compared to traditional technical analysis.
Looking at the NF movement in the last 21 trading sessions,the nifty futues has corrected down to levels of 5350,5369 and 5363.All three times resulted in a rally of approximately 100 points.The rally from 5350 was accompanied by above average volume and took 4 days,the rally from 5369 was with below average volume and took 7 days and the rise from 5363 was with above average volume and took just two days.The period of the volume average being 5.

Visually inspecting the chart, one point is very clear:the market is showing clear rejection of the level of 5350 to 5369,two times out of three.This is the level, the bulls are protecting with srength.Or the bears are withdrawing at these levels.Or both.This means, this area 5350-5369 will not break.

I would suggest traders bet their hard earned money on levels dictated by the market,rather than trade on a large number of alternate levels, close to one other, given by analysts, one of which will hit the target.This is what I call AK-47 type of predictions-shoot a very large number bullets, in the hope, that one will hit the target.This is pretty effective, if you have truck loads of ammunition-most traders are undercapitalised and it is hardly surprising that most traders have blown their accounts, at least once in their carrers.

Yesterday the NF was in a narrow range till around one pm and then dived around 50 points to form the low of the day by 1.30 pm.Trading ranges do not generate much volume.So most of the volume would have been generated after 1 pm.The volume yesterday was the third highest volume in the last 21 trading sessions.The largest volume and second largest volume, in the last 21 days, have happened on days when the low of the day was 5375 and 5363.Yesterdays low was 5393.
It is therefore highly likely that the bulls are now supporting 5393 and this will hold on a closing basis.
With the DOW closing flat,it is likely NF will also be flat for most of the day.A late sharp rally after one pm, is highly likely; the high of 5489 should be taken out on tuesday or wednesday.However, since markets do not run like Swiss trains- exactly on schedule- in any case, it is only a matter of time before that high is taken out.

[ridinghood]

vry unique analysis indeed! going with ur nifty call for ur tgts!

thnx a lot!

regs r

idinghood













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[pradeepgolfer]

my target and stop-since nothing is 100%
Good luck