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Nifty View - April '15 Series |
amitagg Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013 Posts: 4559
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Post: #16 Posted: Tue Mar 31, 2015 2:57 pm Post subject: |
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vinay28 wrote: | Three charts attached, daily, weekly and monthly. Self-explanatory. Interpret your own way. |
For me two things :
- on monthly usual 20-22 month maximum spike is "over" till retraced from beginning
- on weekly and daily it can test bottom of expanding triangle around 7500 minimum.....
This is what I have seen elsewhere and if Nifty were to behave like Dow then all bearish projections will not meet targets ( real Bill market) |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #17 Posted: Tue Mar 31, 2015 3:36 pm Post subject: |
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NU2013 wrote: | Hi Vinay,
What do you make of the Vix?? By this series end?? Selling pressures stop after earnings announcements?? |
I feel nifty is playing games. While most are bearish, vix is falling and so is premium. so confusing to me as far as what market makers are planning. But may be picture will be clear next week by 8th. |
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satishkadam Yellow Belt
Joined: 01 Apr 2010 Posts: 805
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Post: #18 Posted: Tue Mar 31, 2015 4:05 pm Post subject: |
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vinay28 wrote: | NU2013 wrote: | Hi Vinay,
What do you make of the Vix?? By this series end?? Selling pressures stop after earnings announcements?? |
I feel nifty is playing games. While most are bearish, vix is falling and so is premium. so confusing to me as far as what market makers are planning. But may be picture will be clear next week by 8th. |
Last 1 hr fall.. was it Year End. Fall............ |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #19 Posted: Tue Mar 31, 2015 5:54 pm Post subject: |
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satishkadam wrote: | vinay28 wrote: | NU2013 wrote: | Hi Vinay,
What do you make of the Vix?? By this series end?? Selling pressures stop after earnings announcements?? |
I feel nifty is playing games. While most are bearish, vix is falling and so is premium. so confusing to me as far as what market makers are planning. But may be picture will be clear next week by 8th. |
Last 1 hr fall.. was it Year End. Fall............ |
yes, very much possible. IMHO, all is well unless nifty sustains below 8145. |
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riteshucha Green Belt
Joined: 19 May 2012 Posts: 1292
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Post: #20 Posted: Tue Mar 31, 2015 6:36 pm Post subject: |
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if tomm NF breaks 8523, stay short... SL 8580.10 |
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chandrujimrc Brown Belt
Joined: 21 Apr 2009 Posts: 1683
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Post: #21 Posted: Tue Mar 31, 2015 7:18 pm Post subject: |
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As per my earlier post mkt has given 300(approx) points rally from the recent bottom and closed at 100Ema,if it holds there is a chance for retesting 50 Ema ,otherwise it will continue its journey towards 200 Ema where the H&S tgt ends. If it crosses 50Ema,one +WW with tgt of 8800+ is there.So we can buy 8800CE and 8200 PE with total investment of Rs70 for making double |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #22 Posted: Tue Mar 31, 2015 8:20 pm Post subject: |
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This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.
Nifty for Wednesday (01/04/14) and beyond
Supports are at about 8446/38, 8412/02 and 8369 while resistances are at about 8499, 8543/57, 8595, 8627 and 8643. Four +WWs can give about 8627 (if above 8398), 8643 (if above 8446), 8817 (if above 8430) and 9012 (if above 8480) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give about 8380 (once below 8462) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now).
Nifty fell after a gap up open and closed flat and below 8500. Bearish tone will continue since monthly candle is bearish engulfing and there is a -ve div. Hence, it remains in a "sell on rise" mode unless it closes and sustains above 8684. Tuesday was a NR4 day and we may see a big move on Wednesday. Breaking and sustaining below 200 dma, which is at about 8180, can cause more fall. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term. Trade carefully in view of the truncated week. |
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aagarwal White Belt
Joined: 09 Oct 2014 Posts: 5
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Post: #23 Posted: Wed Apr 01, 2015 12:44 am Post subject: |
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[CONTENT REMOVED BY ADMIN], MESSAGE POSTING ACCESS REMOVED. |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #24 Posted: Wed Apr 01, 2015 8:39 am Post subject: |
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aagarwal wrote: | [CONTENT REMOVED BY ADMIN] |
aagarwal, looks like you are back with a different login. posting links is not allowed on icharts. |
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amitagg Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013 Posts: 4559
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Post: #25 Posted: Wed Apr 01, 2015 2:26 pm Post subject: |
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NF 8599 hit...... Cmp 8587
Near 8605 magic!!!!???
What's the trade.
1) have already hit hurdle at 8605 and to fall down and hence a short NOW
2) short below a certain level below CMP
3) what's the stop in two cases above
4) go long above CMP 8605 or 60tf 8605 or something else
5) target and stop ( more importantly stop) if long as per 4 above . |
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riteshucha Green Belt
Joined: 19 May 2012 Posts: 1292
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Post: #26 Posted: Wed Apr 01, 2015 2:43 pm Post subject: |
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although SL clicked... pls keep this line from AnilS in mind before going short..
" NS Close above 8530 will open up-to possibility of trading range between 8530-8790, first resistance being at 8630"
if at all wanting to short, wait till NS comes closer to 8630... if fails to close above this, then attempt to short...
also remember Jt' 8605 is very close, but far away from a close above it...
my personal suggestion is to see fresh on monday and then take a trade
riteshucha wrote: | if tomm NF breaks 8523, stay short... SL 8580.10 |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #27 Posted: Wed Apr 01, 2015 3:16 pm Post subject: |
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I have now bought 8200pe. I also have 9100ce |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #28 Posted: Wed Apr 01, 2015 7:43 pm Post subject: |
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This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.
Nifty for Monday (06/04/15)
Supports are at about 8551, 8499 and 8412 while resistances are at about 8627, 8639, 8691 and 8772. Five +WWs can give about 8636 (if above 8375), 8672 (if above 8535), 8802 (if above 8519), 8877 (if above 8539) and 9029 (if above 8468) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs can give about 8417 (once below 8551) and 8366 (if below 8483) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). An IHnS can give about 8755 if nifty sustains above 8535.
Nifty rose very sharply and closed below 8600. Bearish tone will continue since monthly candle is bearish engulfing with -ve div. Hence, it remains in a "sell on rise" mode unless it closes above 8776. Breaking and sustaining below 200 dma, which is at about 8180, can cause more fall. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term. Trade carefully since vix can be high in view of a long expiry. |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #29 Posted: Wed Apr 01, 2015 7:52 pm Post subject: |
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Nifty daily chart - First hurdle passed, two to go. However, based on RSI, there are three hurdles i.e. 8628/8743/8788.
Also attached is a chart of nifty showing ranges in which it may move up and down for a week or so. |
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Niftyman White Belt
Joined: 22 Mar 2015 Posts: 340
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Post: #30 Posted: Wed Apr 01, 2015 8:09 pm Post subject: |
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Hi Ritesh
NF closed at 8633, above 8605,. Now what ! |
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