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Nifty View - April '15 Series |
vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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Post: #91  Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 3:14 pm Post subject: |
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| NU2013 wrote: | welgro is talking abt nifty at 6666 in his thread!!  |
too far away to comment now. certainly not from here I feel |
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saurabhkurichh
White Belt
Joined: 30 Oct 2006
Posts: 127
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| Post: #92 Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 3:19 pm Post subject: |
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omg repurcurssions here too  |
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manojkr78
Green Belt
Joined: 07 Mar 2011
Posts: 1014
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| Post: #93 Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 3:21 pm Post subject: |
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| recovery in nifty to your levels.... |
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anusantosh
White Belt
Joined: 19 Jun 2011
Posts: 105
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| Post: #94 Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 3:33 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | anusantosh wrote: | | Do you say HnS confirms ONLY if it closes below 8335? |
no it has to sustain below that but it may become possible if it closes below levels given. I am saying "may" because it can reverse from any level. As of now, as posted yesterday, I feel bottom may be over though it can revisit there to create a double bottom. |
it went there as I thought it may. now to see how it behaves. |
It closed below 8324 also.... |
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manojkr78
Green Belt
Joined: 07 Mar 2011
Posts: 1014
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| Post: #95 Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 3:34 pm Post subject: |
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vinay,
nifty could test 200 ema levels at 8140-8150 before buying emerges. what is your view, it has closed below your levels. |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #96 Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 6:24 pm Post subject: |
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| NU2013 wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | anusantosh wrote: | | Do you say HnS confirms ONLY if it closes below 8335? |
no it has to sustain below that but it may become possible if it closes below levels given. I am saying "may" because it can reverse from any level. As of now, as posted yesterday, I feel bottom may be over though it can revisit there to create a double bottom. |
it went there as I thought it may. now to see how it behaves. |
welgro is talking abt nifty at 6666 in his thread!! |
And he we'll be right as he is ........if " actual " bad monsoon..... Funny never have ever I paid heed to fundamentals or news except this one for years it can play spoilsport and news itself if wrong can be used for build positions by large players.
Just since talk has begun I witnessed a live seminar of a market expert coming in for some shastras not CNBC ET now ......who when it was in sep approx last year at 7700 has mentioned 8900-9000 in "clear terms" ....... "And then back to 6350 levels".......( again a trader who works for some HNIs also mentioned a fall back to 6400 when market was at 8200..... Few weeks back.... He could not predict the top)
Rationale is something similar to (only partially) BUFFET method.(may be) ......in that the long term multiple moving averages have to converge and intertwinkle to form the REAL breakout from the top of 6400 which it did not AS per him.......for example 200 dma probably did not intermingle with lower time frame ema / dma and TIME will kill OR price fall down for averages to intermingle.........this he said was to weed out HNIs from he real bull market to start ONE way UP after this 1-2-3 year period ..... |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #97 Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 7:23 pm Post subject: |
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| manojkr78 wrote: | vinay,
nifty could test 200 ema levels at 8140-8150 before buying emerges. what is your view, it has closed below your levels. |
manoj, it is difficult to predict what will happen in next few days but only because it is an expiry week. A huge number of shorts exist in the system and may have to be covered if large hands play their price/volume based algo card, which means some recovery with falling vix.
Otherwise, yes, short/medium outlook appears bleak but then there exist two oppo views as below
1. Bearish view is due to fundamental, sentimental and technical aspects e.g.
- sentimentally, all the bad news (global and local macro/eco/climate/ politics) that has come so far. Also, the rising dollar and oil prices,
- fundamentally, corporate results and expensive stocks.
- technically, (a) today was just the second attempt to breach March low and next attempt may succeed and we may see 200 dma being breached by a margin e.g. about 7800 or (b) as per neo wave, as much as about 30-40% below 9119.
2. Bullish view is also due to counter fundamental, sentimental and technical aspects e.g.
- sentimentally, all the bad news (global and local eco/climate/politics) that has come so far is not worse than that in the past. Also, the rising dollar and oil prices may not be such a worry except in immediate term. So, it is ideal time to start investing as majority is bearish.
- fundamentally, bad corporate results are mostly discounted and stocks are no longer having already fallen 20-50%.
- technically, (a) today was probably a triple bottom and nifty may at the most reverse from 200 dma, if at all it goes there. Also, neo wave went horribly wrong in Jan '14 when it predicted 4500.
There will be other reasons but I have tried to cover major ones. But we will never know what's finally in our store. That's why it is best to watch which levels are breached on either side and protect your profit.
Incidentally, average cost of FIIs when they started buying in Jan is 8324 NF. Unless it is breached convincingly, further fall is not likely. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #98 Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 7:53 pm Post subject: |
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| Nifty weekly chart with RSI from August '14. Why bulls are still hoping for a reversal from here or at the most from about 8230. |
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NU2013
White Belt
Joined: 18 Jul 2013
Posts: 104
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| Post: #99 Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 8:00 pm Post subject: |
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[quote="amitagg"][quote="NU2013"][quote="vinay28"][quote="vinay28"][quote="anusantosh"]
"the long term multiple moving averages have to converge and intertwinkle to form the REAL breakout from the top of 6400"
perfectly understandable...
question is :- what is the time frame in which the "intertwinkling" expected to happen?? next month?? next 3 months?? nifty was around 6600 in May'14.
also, does this mean it is a good time to go short in nifty futures, and carry the trade till this plays out??
I am generally an options trader!! |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #100 Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 8:14 pm Post subject: |
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| I think amit is talking about bow tie formation as it happened in june'12 and oct'13. it hasn't happened on the -ve yet (as in april ;08 and 10) and is far away too. |
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NU2013
White Belt
Joined: 18 Jul 2013
Posts: 104
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| Post: #101 Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 8:28 pm Post subject: |
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FUN-da-MENTALLY, i think Modi premium is over!! The market is reacting to just that.
Like Jim Rogers says, NaMo tells a nice story and talks very convincingly, but nothing has changed on the ground yet.
My feeling is, till BJP get's majority in Rajya Sabha as well, key legislations will get stuck and Cong/TMC/Left will play out the nuisance value!! |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #102 Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 8:45 pm Post subject: |
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| NU2013 wrote: | FUN-da-MENTALLY, i think Modi premium is over!! The market is reacting to just that.
Like Jim Rogers says, NaMo tells a nice story and talks very convincingly, but nothing has changed on the ground yet.
My feeling is, till BJP get's majority in Rajya Sabha as well, key legislations will get stuck and Cong/TMC/Left will play out the nuisance value!! |
modi hope rally was a sentimental issue not fundamental. even if it is over, morgan stanely have cited 65 decisions/improvements in one year, which UPA could not do in last 5. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #103 Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 9:02 pm Post subject: |
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This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.
Nifty for Monday (27/04/15) and beyond
Supports are at about 8247, 8190 and 8133 while resistances are at about 8331, 8388, 8435, 8471 and 8521. 200 dma is at about 8257 while an unfilled gap on lower side is at about 8102. Five +WWs can give about 8372 (if above 8306), 8384 (if above 8287), 8537 (if above 8276) and 8575/8636 (if above 8330) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give about 8230 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A HnS can give about 7835 if nifty sustains below 8345.
Nifty fell sharply again and closed just above 8300 and is scarily bearish. However, there is a +ve div on daily and a mild bullish div on weekly and we may see a reversal. A monthly close below 8282 will mean more fall while a close above 8484 may give some hope to bulls. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term. Trade carefully as it is an expiry week. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #104 Posted: Sun Apr 26, 2015 4:42 pm Post subject: |
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Two daily charts attached showing alternate possibilities. The weekly chart posted earlier suggests that nifty may reverse from around 8230.
The first daily chart shows two lower and one small upper TLs. The second TL from top, called the lakshman rekha, is drawn thru the famous gap of August '11. This chart was first posted over two years ago. It shows that nifty breached below it in 2011 and then took almost three years to go above it. If nifty breaches below, it may remain below it for a long time.
The second daily chart shows likely supports, which if breached, may mean further pain. Also, for nifty to go up, it must sustain above 8600.
I will be watching these charts closely. |
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chandrujimrc
Brown Belt
Joined: 21 Apr 2009
Posts: 1683
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| Post: #105 Posted: Mon Apr 27, 2015 12:28 pm Post subject: |
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Dear Vinay,
I think mkt will reverse at 200 Ema which is also the point 5 of EOD +WW for big rally with Divrg of RSI at 30. |
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