iCharts Discussions

apka · Black Belt Joined: 13 Dec 2011 Posts: 6137

ok vinay will try to observe.

there was stable pos div on nifty 5mintf.. was expecting short covering to come after 1.40pm.. seems movement started already.

apka · Black Belt Joined: 13 Dec 2011 Posts: 6137

the pressure again was shown at 5593-94 fut. unable to cross that area again and we made new low. (this same had happened with 5995 fut for 3 days and after that it wasnt breached again)

also 5600ce has had added 12 lakh OI more than 5700ce intraday but with lower no. of contracts and the price is higher than 5700ce. So bulk writing happening for 5600ce. Its going to be difficult to cross 5600 until a lower support is tested first I feel seeing this.

vinay28 · Black Belt Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748

skd2012 · Yellow Belt Joined: 03 Oct 2012 Posts: 948

taxman...ultimately took a plunge of 4 points in my written position....it would have been big loss had it been direct NF short....also my greed did not allow me to book 7-8 points ...its a lesson ....no carry for me....

masa · White Belt Joined: 06 Jan 2007 Posts: 162

Nifty Update

satishkadam · Yellow Belt Joined: 01 Apr 2010 Posts: 805

ashisharma · White Belt Joined: 27 Apr 2012 Posts: 3

FII's don't care a hood for Nifty now .. It's a total Bear market ..

vinay28 · Black Belt Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748

Line of reversal drawn from low of July 09 thru the centre of big gap in Aug '11. Assuming nifty reverses above the line again and in same time period, that would be earliest in Sept at a level around 6800. But before that 5230 possible.

This is all speculation though.

vinay28 · Black Belt Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748

There is something called Capitulation Index (CI), which for nifty was 1.44 EOD 04/04 with nifty at 5575. Historically, nifty reverses once CI goes to 1.5.

If we assume that nifty has to react by the same % for the CI to go to 1.5, it will have to fall to 5342 though the relation is not linear.

apka · Black Belt Joined: 13 Dec 2011 Posts: 6137

what is with satishkadam and ashishsharma, are you guys on a troll posting after each other ?

satish posting in different threads same thing and ashishsharma posting contradictory things to his own ?

apka · Black Belt Joined: 13 Dec 2011 Posts: 6137

north korea has issused intimations to uk european countries asking to pull out their persons from embassies in north korea as they cannot assure their saftey after 10th april.

skd2012 · Yellow Belt Joined: 03 Oct 2012 Posts: 948

I thought call writing was over done till Thursday...Hence was thinking bounce was due...it gave some intraday bounce but never crosssed 5600NF. Above this it would have jumped 30 points quickly.

The trend remains down in all time frames....but over bearishness is there in terms of position in option. Let's see how things work in next week. 5600 PE cut good OI but still it has highest OI. Writers are little more confident at 5500 strike than 5600.

apka · Black Belt Joined: 13 Dec 2011 Posts: 6137

Calls:
5500ce : +5.15 lakh shares : Total OI 17.15 lakh shares.
5600ce : +11.30 lakh shares : Total OI 49.85 lakh shares. (OI has increased by 2 times in 4 days)
5700ce : +10.15 lakh shares : Total OI 80.55 lakh shares. (OI has almost doubled in 4 days)
5800ce : +8.70 lakh shares : Total OI 78.10 lakh shares.

Puts:
5700pe : -6.10 lakh shares : Total OI 36.90 lakh shares. (Down from as high as 63 lakh shares in OI 4 days back).
5600pe : -12.35 lakh shares : Total OI 58.05 lakh shares. (Down from as high as 88 lakh shares in OI 4 days back).
5500pe : +0.10 lakh shares : Total OI 53.67 lakh shares.
5400pe : +6.40 lakh shares : Total OI 41.90 lakh shares.

Reading:
5600pe: 4 days back we were 5750 (150 up from the strike price and OI was above 80 lakhs), now we are 50 points below it, so 200 points swing.
5700ce: 4 days back we were 5750 (50 up from the strike price, and OI was near 45 lakhs), now we are 150 points below it, so 200 points swing.

5600pe, 5700ce have reversed roles and almost done a mirror.

5500pe has OI lesser than 5600pe and 5600pe is shedding OI, and 5500pe didnt add OI. So anytime 5500 can be breached easily.

PCR stands at 0.81 EOD. So majority build up is in calls. Last time when PCR touched 0.7x and stayed for 2 days, nifty rallied up.

While nifty fut has added 45 lakh shorts in 4 days taking OI up from 121 lakhs to 166 lakhs with overall ATP being near 5630-40 fut now. So, writing of calls and shorting of nifty fut in 4 days suggest for the moment the laxman rekha is 5600 for upside till 5593-94 fut breaks, but still 12 sessions to go for expiry, so not conclusive yet for expiry purpose.

apka · Black Belt Joined: 13 Dec 2011 Posts: 6137

Attached 2 more charts. One nifty daily closing basis lines, showing closing support there at 5498-5505. And RSI (14) support at 13.20.

Second weekly chart, showing support on weekly basis near 5440-5450.

vinay28 · Black Belt Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748

with vix remaining above 16, we can expect wild swings. short sellers will have to be cautious particularly in case of a big gap down open. This is because 5800+ is still possible by expiry. Friday's likely morning star can not be ignored and close above 5608 will signal that. Though I would prefer at least 5330 first. Smile

Note that 50% fibo and nov'12 gap are around same level of 5440. Incidentally, 5445 is a level "popular" since 2010.