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Nifty View - April 2013 |
skd2012
Yellow Belt
Joined: 03 Oct 2012
Posts: 948
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Post: #346  Posted: Thu Apr 11, 2013 11:56 am Post subject: |
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| Low volume and narrow range game is going on...we seem to hold on the up trend...happy to collect some premium....do not know how far it can go...5628 around if we hold on the low. |
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SP50
Brown Belt
Joined: 26 Nov 2010
Posts: 1615
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| Post: #347 Posted: Thu Apr 11, 2013 12:17 pm Post subject: |
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I think this is another false fall, 5630 on cards today definately.  |
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starscream
White Belt
Joined: 26 Nov 2012
Posts: 61
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| Post: #348 Posted: Thu Apr 11, 2013 12:27 pm Post subject: |
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| exit shorts |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #349 Posted: Thu Apr 11, 2013 12:30 pm Post subject: |
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| VIX 17.31 |
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SP50
Brown Belt
Joined: 26 Nov 2010
Posts: 1615
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| Post: #350 Posted: Thu Apr 11, 2013 12:42 pm Post subject: |
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Is it possible today Vinayji (5630-5650)? |
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starscream
White Belt
Joined: 26 Nov 2012
Posts: 61
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| Post: #351 Posted: Thu Apr 11, 2013 12:59 pm Post subject: |
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market getting ready for a spring.
edit long @ 5565 if touched
Last edited by starscream on Thu Apr 11, 2013 1:01 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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chandrujimrc
Brown Belt
Joined: 21 Apr 2009
Posts: 1683
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| Post: #352 Posted: Thu Apr 11, 2013 1:00 pm Post subject: |
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| Dear taxman,any thing possible in our market. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #353 Posted: Thu Apr 11, 2013 1:04 pm Post subject: |
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| taxmann50 wrote: |
Is it possible today Vinayji (5630-5650)? |
patience my dear watson. 
NS should close above 5625 today to suggest further rally. If it closes above 5648, there could be gap up galore.
I am hoping for at least 5633NF for today. |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #354 Posted: Thu Apr 11, 2013 1:23 pm Post subject: |
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| april is not a month for trading by weak hearted. lot of voltility, buying, selling. |
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starscream
White Belt
Joined: 26 Nov 2012
Posts: 61
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| Post: #355 Posted: Thu Apr 11, 2013 1:26 pm Post subject: |
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| exit longs and wait. |
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chandrujimrc
Brown Belt
Joined: 21 Apr 2009
Posts: 1683
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| Post: #356 Posted: Thu Apr 11, 2013 1:31 pm Post subject: |
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| Dear vinay, will you able to predict the mkt by using India VIX? |
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starscream
White Belt
Joined: 26 Nov 2012
Posts: 61
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| Post: #357 Posted: Thu Apr 11, 2013 1:40 pm Post subject: |
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| short safely with sl 5582 |
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skd2012
Yellow Belt
Joined: 03 Oct 2012
Posts: 948
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| Post: #358 Posted: Thu Apr 11, 2013 1:54 pm Post subject: |
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Looks like people are into buying PUTS today... if day;s high is taken out then 5680 around possible 
hating this expansion of option premium due to INFY results |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #359 Posted: Thu Apr 11, 2013 1:56 pm Post subject: |
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| chandrujimrc wrote: | | Dear vinay, will you able to predict the mkt by using India VIX? |
chandru, VIX gives volatility and hence the range on either side. On a monthly basis, it's very easy to predict the range for the next month assuming vix remains constant. e.g. with yesterday's close of about 5558 and vix of 16.49, the range till 9/5 is (plus/minus sq rt 16.49*5558/100). You can calculate this range every day for next 30 days based on eod vix value.
On a more shorter time frame as daily, I had been trying to find some way to provide input to ST for his market sentiment study. However, I found that vix alone does not help and pcr also plays a major role. So I tried pcr*vix. It does give some good idea, as I have found. But it is more complicated than one can think. e.g. I had correctly found that nifty goes up if product is 14 or less. But in recent days, nifty went down. Not because the basis is wrong but because vix has been moving sharply on either side intraday.
also, pcr can be misleading. since options are almost always written, pcr is a good guide e.g. I have been pointing out that if pcr is <0.9 nifty goes up, provided of course vix helps by being below 15.50. But on rare ocassions, pcr is more decided by buying in options and not writing. That messes up things. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #360 Posted: Thu Apr 11, 2013 1:58 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | april is not a month for trading by weak hearted. lot of voltility, buying, selling. |
then why are you and taxmann trading?  |
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