|
|
| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Nifty View - April 2013 |
vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
|
Post: #556  Posted: Fri Apr 26, 2013 8:47 pm Post subject: |
 |
|
| daily candle a Harami |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
|
| |
vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
|
| Post: #557 Posted: Sat Apr 27, 2013 12:02 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| nifty will go up only if vix remains consistently below 14.60 and then 14 and pcr below 1.0 and then 0.8. VIX CMP 13.88 and Thursday eod pcr 1.05. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
masa
White Belt
Joined: 06 Jan 2007
Posts: 162
|
| Post: #558 Posted: Sat Apr 27, 2013 9:44 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| vinay28 wrote: | | chandrujimrc wrote: | | Dear vinay, will you able to predict the mkt by using India VIX? |
chandru, VIX gives volatility and hence the range on either side. On a monthly basis, it's very easy to predict the range for the next month assuming vix remains constant. e.g. with yesterday's close of about 5558 and vix of 16.49, the range till 9/5 is (plus/minus sq rt 16.49*5558/100). You can calculate this range every day for next 30 days based on eod vix value.
On a more shorter time frame as daily, I had been trying to find some way to provide input to ST for his market sentiment study. However, I found that vix alone does not help and pcr also plays a major role. So I tried pcr*vix. It does give some good idea, as I have found. But it is more complicated than one can think. e.g. I had correctly found that nifty goes up if product is 14 or less. But in recent days, nifty went down. Not because the basis is wrong but because vix has been moving sharply on either side intraday.
also, pcr can be misleading. since options are almost always written, pcr is a good guide e.g. I have been pointing out that if pcr is <0.9 nifty goes up, provided of course vix helps by being below 15.50. But on rare ocassions, pcr is more decided by buying in options and not writing. That messes up things. |
vinay
could you please explain in detail once again. I did not understand. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
|
| Post: #559 Posted: Sun Apr 28, 2013 1:51 am Post subject: |
|
|
| vinay28 wrote: | | daily candle a Harami |
yes, what a big harami  |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
pkholla
Black Belt
Joined: 04 Nov 2010
Posts: 2890
|
| Post: #560 Posted: Sun Apr 28, 2013 7:39 am Post subject: |
|
|
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Friends: Let us switch over to May thread and say bye bye to April thread
to avoid confusion. Prakash Holla
***********************************************************
Last edited by pkholla on Sun Apr 28, 2013 2:12 pm; edited 1 time in total |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
|
| Post: #561 Posted: Sun Apr 28, 2013 11:14 am Post subject: |
|
|
| masa wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | chandrujimrc wrote: | | Dear vinay, will you able to predict the mkt by using India VIX? |
chandru, VIX gives volatility and hence the range on either side. On a monthly basis, it's very easy to predict the range for the next month assuming vix remains constant. e.g. with yesterday's close of about 5558 and vix of 16.49, the range till 9/5 is (plus/minus sq rt 16.49*5558/100). You can calculate this range every day for next 30 days based on eod vix value.
On a more shorter time frame as daily, I had been trying to find some way to provide input to ST for his market sentiment study. However, I found that vix alone does not help and pcr also plays a major role. So I tried pcr*vix. It does give some good idea, as I have found. But it is more complicated than one can think. e.g. I had correctly found that nifty goes up if product is 14 or less. But in recent days, nifty went down. Not because the basis is wrong but because vix has been moving sharply on either side intraday.
also, pcr can be misleading. since options are almost always written, pcr is a good guide e.g. I have been pointing out that if pcr is <0.9 nifty goes up, provided of course vix helps by being below 15.50. But on rare ocassions, pcr is more decided by buying in options and not writing. That messes up things. |
vinay
could you please explain in detail once again. I did not understand. |
Masa, what is that you didn't understand?
Prakash - May thread from 1st May only as it is for nifty spot |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
masa
White Belt
Joined: 06 Jan 2007
Posts: 162
|
| Post: #562 Posted: Sun Apr 28, 2013 11:37 am Post subject: |
|
|
| vinay28 wrote: | | masa wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | chandrujimrc wrote: | | Dear vinay, will you able to predict the mkt by using India VIX? |
chandru, VIX gives volatility and hence the range on either side. On a monthly basis, it's very easy to predict the range for the next month assuming vix remains constant. e.g. with yesterday's close of about 5558 and vix of 16.49, the range till 9/5 is (plus/minus sq rt 16.49*5558/100). You can calculate this range every day for next 30 days based on eod vix value.
On a more shorter time frame as daily, I had been trying to find some way to provide input to ST for his market sentiment study. However, I found that vix alone does not help and pcr also plays a major role. So I tried pcr*vix. It does give some good idea, as I have found. But it is more complicated than one can think. e.g. I had correctly found that nifty goes up if product is 14 or less. But in recent days, nifty went down. Not because the basis is wrong but because vix has been moving sharply on either side intraday.
also, pcr can be misleading. since options are almost always written, pcr is a good guide e.g. I have been pointing out that if pcr is <0.9 nifty goes up, provided of course vix helps by being below 15.50. But on rare ocassions, pcr is more decided by buying in options and not writing. That messes up things. |
vinay
could you please explain in detail once again. I did not understand. |
Masa, what is that you didn't understand?
Prakash - May thread from 1st May only as it is for nifty spot |
Prakash..
pl explain again according to current levels in detail.
Means how we can get monthly levels by using only vix ( with maths solution )
Prakash.. By same monthly range, can we get weekly levels also? |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
|
| Post: #563 Posted: Sun Apr 28, 2013 11:44 am Post subject: |
|
|
| masa wrote: | pl explain again according to current levels in detail.
Means how we can get monthly levels by using only vix ( with maths solution ) |
Masa - I have already given the formula in my earlier post and is pasted below again
"e.g. with yesterday's close of about 5558 and vix of 16.49, the range till 9/5 is (plus/minus sq rt 16.49*5558/100). You can calculate this range every day for next 30 days based on eod vix value."
Hence, I posted this earlier - "assuming VIX to be constant at yesterday's (25/04 expiry) eod level of 14.20, 30 day range 5693-6139."
It can't give good results for weekly or daily range.
Hope it's clear. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
masa
White Belt
Joined: 06 Jan 2007
Posts: 162
|
| Post: #564 Posted: Sun Apr 28, 2013 1:21 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| vinay28 wrote: | | masa wrote: | pl explain again according to current levels in detail.
Means how we can get monthly levels by using only vix ( with maths solution ) |
Masa - I have already given the formula in my earlier post and is pasted below again
"e.g. with yesterday's close of about 5558 and vix of 16.49, the range till 9/5 is (plus/minus sq rt 16.49*5558/100). You can calculate this range every day for next 30 days based on eod vix value."
Hence, I posted this earlier - "assuming VIX to be constant at yesterday's (25/04 expiry) eod level of 14.20, 30 day range 5693-6139."
It can't give good results for weekly or daily range.
Hope it's clear. |
vinay
pl do not misunderstand as my maths is very weak. I solve this equation as shown by you.
Thursday's close is 14.20*5916/100 = I got 840.072
sq rt of 840.072 is 28.98399558
what would be the next step? ( Really do not understand your maths solution process ).
I am not getting levels shown by you as 5693 - 6139
pl help.
Thanks |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
pkholla
Black Belt
Joined: 04 Nov 2010
Posts: 2890
|
| Post: #565 Posted: Sun Apr 28, 2013 2:13 pm Post subject: |
|
|
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Friends: Let us switch over to May thread and say bye bye to April thread
to avoid confusion. Prakash Holla
*********************************************************** |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
|
| Post: #566 Posted: Sun Apr 28, 2013 3:48 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| masa wrote: | vinay
pl do not misunderstand as my maths is very weak. I solve this equation as shown by you.
Thursday's close is 14.20*5916/100 = I got 840.072
sq rt of 840.072 is 28.98399558
what would be the next step? ( Really do not understand your maths solution process ).
I am not getting levels shown by you as 5693 - 6139
pl help.
Thanks |
OK, I got your confusion, which is because the formula was posted as part of the text. It should be
plus/minus (sq rt 14.20)*5916/100) |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
masa
White Belt
Joined: 06 Jan 2007
Posts: 162
|
| Post: #567 Posted: Sun Apr 28, 2013 4:29 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| vinay28 wrote: | | masa wrote: | vinay
pl do not misunderstand as my maths is very weak. I solve this equation as shown by you.
Thursday's close is 14.20*5916/100 = I got 840.072
sq rt of 840.072 is 28.98399558
what would be the next step? ( Really do not understand your maths solution process ).
I am not getting levels shown by you as 5693 - 6139
pl help.
Thanks |
OK, I got your confusion, which is because the formula was posted as part of the text. It should be
plus/minus (sq rt 14.20)*5916/100) |
Thanks vinay, got it.
so first do sqrt of 14.20 it is = 3.768288736*5916 =22293.19616/100 = 222.9319616 + 5916 = 6138.93 and - 5916 = 5693.06
vinay, does this work to find stock levels also?
whenever you have time, pl post how does volatility works and how one can take advantage by using it ??
Thanks |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
masa
White Belt
Joined: 06 Jan 2007
Posts: 162
|
| Post: #568 Posted: Sun Apr 28, 2013 4:45 pm Post subject: |
|
|
vinay, your post for April range last month as:-
Range for April based on VIX as of now is 5903-5461 though 6100-5400 is possible if vix shoots up. Similarly range for the year 13-14 is 4817-6547.
Good job. Nifty remain plus/minus near the same range. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
|
| Post: #569 Posted: Sun Apr 28, 2013 8:26 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| masa wrote: | Thanks vinay, got it.
so first do sqrt of 14.20 it is = 3.768288736*5916 =22293.19616/100 = 222.9319616 + 5916 = 6138.93 and - 5916 = 5693.06
vinay, does this work to find stock levels also?
whenever you have time, pl post how does volatility works and how one can take advantage by using it ??
Thanks |
Masa, of course it has to work for stocks also but I don't know whether one can get VIX for individual stocks. As for how vix works is concerned, you will have to search on internet beginning with what is vix.
One way to take advantage of it is to calculate the range for the next month based on eod expiry data and buy calls/puts at least 100 short of extreme levels of the range e.g. One can buy 6000ce and 5800pe for May once their price is well below half of 130 and 100 resp. so that one can make money if these levels are reached. Note that it is easier said than done as vix can change over a large range during the month and throw your calculation out of the window e.g. nifty can remain flat so that both become zero at next eod. So you should know the likely trend at the beginning with some other sound method(s). Also, you have to watch vix and option value every day and be agile to get out or add more qty. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
|
| Post: #570 Posted: Sun Apr 28, 2013 8:28 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| masa wrote: | vinay, your post for April range last month as:-
Range for April based on VIX as of now is 5903-5461 though 6100-5400 is possible if vix shoots up. Similarly range for the year 13-14 is 4817-6547.
Good job. Nifty remain plus/minus near the same range. |
one also needs luck to be right masa.  |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
|
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
You cannot attach files in this forum
You cannot download files in this forum
|
Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group
|
|
|
FAQ
Search
Memberlist
Usergroups
Register
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
