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Nifty View - April Series 2014 |
vinay28
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Post: #1  Posted: Fri Mar 28, 2014 10:32 am Post subject: Nifty View - April Series 2014 |
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Nifty for Friday (28/03/14)
Supports are at about 6623, 6615, 6554, 6541 and 6511 while resistances are at about 6661, 6673 and 6683. Two +WWs can give about 6719 and 6775 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Six -WWs can give about 6587 (once below 6640), 6574 (once below 6670), 6560 (once below 6653), 6542 (once below 6630) and 6335/6300 (once below 6637) (-WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A half mast can give about 6715 if nifty continues to go up. A rising wedge can give about 6480 in case nifty remains below 6635.
Nifty rose in spite of a gap up open and closed well above 6600 and continues to look bullish. However, daily candle is like an inverted hammer and there is a mild -ve div on lower TFs and it may react a bit. If nifty closes below about 6580, it could fall more. Oil price and/or INR and other global cues will remain key to the future of Indian markets in short to medium term. VIX can cause wild intraday swings. |
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vinay28
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| Post: #2 Posted: Fri Mar 28, 2014 10:34 am Post subject: |
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| market and banks will make merry till rbi policy on Tuesday and then ...... |
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vinay28
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| Post: #3 Posted: Fri Mar 28, 2014 6:56 pm Post subject: |
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| Range for 30 days, counting from today is 6994/6289NS and 7037/6329NF. |
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amitagg
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| Post: #4 Posted: Fri Mar 28, 2014 7:42 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | market and banks will make merry till rbi policy on Tuesday and then ...... |
I am seriously looking for shorting banks sooner...pls guide what level NS/ BNF to short (as of today..I. Know levels can change later)....or banks like Axis or SBI and whether public sector (some basel iii relaxatio trigger) or private sector....any other consideration / trading strategy in terms of Futures / option trades we can have....selling calls OTM, buying bear put spread etc.. |
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vinay28
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| Post: #5 Posted: Fri Mar 28, 2014 8:02 pm Post subject: |
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| amitagg wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | market and banks will make merry till rbi policy on Tuesday and then ...... |
I am seriously looking for shorting banks sooner...pls guide what level NS/ BNF to short (as of today..I. Know levels can change later)....or banks like Axis or SBI and whether public sector (some basel iii relaxatio trigger) or private sector....any other consideration / trading strategy in terms of Futures / option trades we can have....selling calls OTM, buying bear put spread etc.. |
difficult to give levels. just start shorting at higher level on Monday or at the most Tuesday morning. May be we will see 6750/6825. Months ago, I had posted a level of 1500 for axis, which no one believed. Take that level for example as reference for shorting except sbi. Banks and IT (and perhaps pharma with sizeable exports) may go down 20-25% in 2-3 months with INR going to 58/56/53. again e.g. take axis at 1085 as reference. Just levels I feel will come but not sure. keep good SL always as I could be horribly wrong. If market doesn't tank after rbi policy, I may be wrong. |
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vinay28
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| Post: #6 Posted: Fri Mar 28, 2014 8:03 pm Post subject: |
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| incidentally FIIs are buying in cash and puts alike. |
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amitagg
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| Post: #7 Posted: Fri Mar 28, 2014 8:09 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | amitagg wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | market and banks will make merry till rbi policy on Tuesday and then ...... |
I am seriously looking for shorting banks sooner...pls guide what level NS/ BNF to short (as of today..I. Know levels can change later)....or banks like Axis or SBI and whether public sector (some basel iii relaxatio trigger) or private sector....any other consideration / trading strategy in terms of Futures / option trades we can have....selling calls OTM, buying bear put spread etc.. |
difficult to give levels. just start shorting at higher level on Monday or at the most Tuesday morning. May be we will see 6750/6825. Months ago, I had posted a level of 1500 for axis, which no one believed. Take that level for example as reference for shorting except sbi. Banks and IT (and perhaps pharma with sizeable exports) may go down 20-25% in 2-3 months with INR going to 58/56/53. again e.g. take axis at 1085 as reference. Just levels I feel will come but not sure. keep good SL always as I could be horribly wrong. If market doesn't tank after rbi policy, I may be wrong. |
No u are right in prognosis and doing great in advance one as that...really helps..sgx up 6780...and RR and Apkas levels of 6750 to be touched.....
Now the right shorting opportunity is Monday..in few stages...not higer volumes since against trend...rewards shall come by end of Tues....(In the end we play by probabilities and does.not matter really whether that happens ore not)....great thankyou |
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vinay28
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| Post: #8 Posted: Fri Mar 28, 2014 8:16 pm Post subject: |
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| nifty weekly with weekly resistance of 6730 (best case 6750). If that is broken then rethinking necessary |
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sanjayojha
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| Post: #9 Posted: Fri Mar 28, 2014 9:31 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | market and banks will make merry till rbi policy on Tuesday and then ...... |
RBI gov always surprises the market. This time against all odds it seems he may raise the repo rates, may be for the last time, leading to fall in market. Inflation is still not in the comfort zone of RBI. Everything else has already been discounted by market.
Sanjay |
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vinay28
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| Post: #10 Posted: Fri Mar 28, 2014 9:50 pm Post subject: |
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| sanjayojha wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | market and banks will make merry till rbi policy on Tuesday and then ...... |
RBI gov always surprises the market. This time against all odds it seems he may raise the repo rates, may be for the last time, leading to fall in market. Inflation is still not in the comfort zone of RBI. Everything else has already been discounted by market.
Sanjay |
I feel rbi policy will not matter |
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vinay28
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| Post: #11 Posted: Sat Mar 29, 2014 3:36 pm Post subject: |
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On 4/1/14, I had posted extreme levels of NF, tisco, ril, axis and infy. All but one levels were met in feb and march, the last one being NF when a freak level of 5630 came. Only remaining level is of NF and is 68xx. At that time, no one, including I, took them seriously. Otherwise huge amounts of money could have been made.
I am now posting a chart which may be hinting at likely levels for next 2-4 months. Note that high/low are 6984.95/6100. No questions pl.  |
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vinay28
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| Post: #12 Posted: Sat Mar 29, 2014 4:56 pm Post subject: |
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Nifty for Monday (31/03/14)
Supports are at about 6680, 6667 and 6647 while resistances are at about 6720, 6732 and 6750. A +WW can give about 6746 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs can give about 6625 (once below 6684) and 6555 (once below 6677) (-WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A half mast can give about 6715 if nifty continues to go up. A rising wedge can give about 6480 in case nifty remains below 6655.
Nifty will have to close above 6750 to continue bullish trend. However, if it closes below about 6630, it could fall more. Weekly resistance is at about 6730/50. Monday closing is crucial as it will mark monthly, quarterly and yearly close. Oil price and/or INR and other global cues will remain key to the future of Indian markets in short to medium term. VIX can cause wild intraday swings. Trade carefully in view of RBI policy review in the week. |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #13 Posted: Mon Mar 31, 2014 9:46 am Post subject: |
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| vix above 21 at last |
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rakeshliving
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Joined: 03 Jan 2011
Posts: 88
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| Post: #14 Posted: Mon Mar 31, 2014 3:47 pm Post subject: |
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Vinay,
i think u r taking
ODIN chart on Saturday...
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manojkr78
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Joined: 07 Mar 2011
Posts: 1014
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| Post: #15 Posted: Mon Mar 31, 2014 8:40 pm Post subject: |
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vinay,
levels for tomorrow plz...... |
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