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Nifty View - August Series 2013
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Nifty View - August Series 2013

vinay28
Black Belt

Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748

Post: #121

Posted: Sat Aug 03, 2013 9:47 pm Post subject:

msaticharts wrote:

It has been one of the strongest trends(this time it is downwards) in last few months with very small retracements. But at the same time all the major indices like Bank Nifty and others are at their lowerBB on weekly charts. And the reversals at such points have been very sharp at this point. That's why the query. To me 5850 would be a very high risk reward point for going short, that why the query. It would make about 45% of retracement for the entire down move and 200 DMA should be good LT resistance now with all daily, weekly and monthly MACD giving a -ve divergence.

if there is a sharp reversal from here, it may not stop at 5850.

beowulf
White Belt

Joined: 18 Aug 2010
Posts: 163

Post: #122

Posted: Sun Aug 04, 2013 2:54 pm Post subject:

vinay28 wrote:

if there is a sharp reversal from here, it may not stop at 5850.

Bullish as always Vinay... 2guns

About time you shared your secret Laughing

apka
Black Belt

Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137

Post: #123

Posted: Sun Aug 04, 2013 3:57 pm Post subject:

beowulf wrote:

vinay28 wrote:

if there is a sharp reversal from here, it may not stop at 5850.

Bullish as always Vinay... 2guns

About time you shared your secret Laughing

he has got bird connections.

vinay28
Black Belt

Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748

Post: #124

Posted: Sun Aug 04, 2013 4:22 pm Post subject:

apka wrote:

beowulf wrote:

vinay28 wrote:

if there is a sharp reversal from here, it may not stop at 5850.

Bullish as always Vinay... 2guns

About time you shared your secret Laughing

he has got bird connections.

well it's not a question being bullish or bearish. First of all, my views in this respect are never for immediate/short term trader but for investor. As I have been posting repeatedly, it's always a matter of levels being breached. Two weeks ago, when I was bullish, I had posted that a breach of 6000 will mean more downside and nifty has fallen 350 points since then. If 5600 is breached strongly, first support comes at about 5440. The only time nifty fell like this during an uptrend was, I think, in june & oct 09 and jan 10 and see what happened after that. So it's possible we could see a "V" shaped recovery.

To me, dec 11 to mar 12 is similar to oct 08 to mar 09. Having said this, my bullishness is still intact even if nifty goes to about 5170, an "old" crucial level. On higher side, I still see an all time high by Dec. unless something terrible happens, locally or globally. And that may mean much lower than 5170.

I also feel banknifty may not breach about 8800, which means that for nifty to go to 5170, defensives (hul, itc, etc.), pharma, IT, etc. will fall a lot while banks and commodities will support to maintain balance.

Incidentally, period 8/8 to 17/9 is very crucial. Smile

I have attached a chart that shows long term TL and also two lines that are drawn tangetially to 233 ema. Have a look and brood about it.

beowulf
White Belt

Joined: 18 Aug 2010
Posts: 163

Post: #125

Posted: Mon Aug 05, 2013 9:26 am Post subject:

vinay28 wrote:

I also feel banknifty may not breach about 8800, which means that for nifty to go to 5170, defensives (hul, itc, etc.), pharma, IT, etc. will fall a lot while banks and commodities will support to maintain balance.

Thanks much for posting your views Vinay...

The way banks are messed up, I dont have much hope that BNF will lend any support atleast in the near term, maybe IT will be the lone ranger due to rupee weakness but dont see much hope other than that...

Having said that it seems to be so easy these days for operators with deep pockets to turn the index their way... Rolling Eyes

apka
Black Belt

Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137

Post: #126 Posted: Mon Aug 05, 2013 9:29 am Post subject:

VIX 21.62 high

vinay28
Black Belt

Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748

Post: #127 Posted: Mon Aug 05, 2013 2:38 pm Post subject:

banknifty looks good

vinay28
Black Belt

Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748

Post: #128 Posted: Mon Aug 05, 2013 3:10 pm Post subject:

daily candle an imperfect harami cross?

buddhas
White Belt

Joined: 30 Aug 2007
Posts: 23

Post: #129

Posted: Mon Aug 05, 2013 3:53 pm Post subject:

vinay28 wrote:

banknifty looks good

Vinay, Any tgt for BNF t'row

msaticharts
White Belt

Joined: 17 Mar 2008
Posts: 7

Post: #130

Posted: Mon Aug 05, 2013 4:02 pm Post subject:

vinay28 wrote:

banknifty looks good

BNF gave a good trade today... weekly chart lowerBB, Hourly MACD +ve, sort of triple bottom entry at 9915. It bounced positively from there and is hold it. In the heat map all sectoral components of nifty showing green colour except Heavy Engg..which is understable because of disastrous results of BHEL.

msaticharts
White Belt

Joined: 17 Mar 2008
Posts: 7

Post: #131

Posted: Mon Aug 05, 2013 4:11 pm Post subject:

vinay28 wrote:

apka wrote:

beowulf wrote:

vinay28 wrote:

if there is a sharp reversal from here, it may not stop at 5850.

Bullish as always Vinay... 2guns

About time you shared your secret Laughing

he has got bird connections.

I have attached a chart that shows long term TL and also two lines that are drawn tangetially to 233 ema. Have a look and brood about it.

@vinay.... though i too don't like taking calls on market and that too long term while trading for on hourly/daily charts.. i may say based on below presented analysis 5170 on nifty looks difficult.... it is a strange bear market.... with BNF trading at levels when Nifty was 5200 (a strong support), Nifty Midcap50 trading at levels when Nifty was 4500. So for Nifty to crack definitely FMCG, IT, Pharma need to crack. If they don't crack, there has to be a massive problem bigger than in 2008-09 to take Nifty to below 5200 levels. In that case Nifty Midcap would have to touch 1000+ (75% retracement from 2008 highs) and BNF will have to touch 8000 (this still has a greater probability than Midcap touching 1000 given that banking has been the leader in this bear trend) which it when NF touched 4500.

vinay28
Black Belt

Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748

Post: #132

Posted: Mon Aug 05, 2013 7:06 pm Post subject:

buddhas wrote:

vinay28 wrote:

banknifty looks good

Vinay, Any tgt for BNF t'row

9880 is crucial. if it goes up, 10450/500 possible.

vinay28
Black Belt

Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748

Post: #133

Posted: Mon Aug 05, 2013 7:08 pm Post subject:

vinay28 wrote:

daily candle an imperfect harami cross?

"low price" harami cross and also a NR7 day.

vinay28
Black Belt

Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748

Post: #134 Posted: Mon Aug 05, 2013 7:16 pm Post subject:

Nifty's leg & foot pattern. Will the leg lift or will the foot slip?

rk_a2003
Black Belt

Joined: 21 Jan 2010
Posts: 2734

Post: #135

Posted: Mon Aug 05, 2013 7:27 pm Post subject:

vinay28 wrote:

Nifty's leg & foot pattern. Will the leg lift or will the foot slip?

First there will be an attempt to lift the leg and in the process foot will slip. Laughing

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