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Nifty View - August Series 2013 |
apka
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Joined: 13 Dec 2011
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Post: #151  Posted: Tue Aug 06, 2013 2:45 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | NS has fallen >11% from high. Normally it should reverse after such falls. hence short sellers should keep a good TSL. |
would be exiting stock puts once VIX reaches between 23-24. |
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satishboda
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Joined: 15 Dec 2010
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| Post: #152 Posted: Tue Aug 06, 2013 3:23 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28/apka....NF eod rsi is 30. is the time ripe to go long on NF ? |
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vinay28
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| Post: #153 Posted: Tue Aug 06, 2013 3:30 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | NS has fallen >11% from high. Normally it should reverse after such falls. hence short sellers should keep a good TSL. |
would be exiting stock puts once VIX reaches between 23-24. |
apka, if it closes above 22.11, which looks possible, further downside is very likely. Something like a panic bottom after which a sharp pullback can come. |
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vinay28
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| Post: #154 Posted: Tue Aug 06, 2013 3:31 pm Post subject: |
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| satishboda wrote: | | vinay28/apka....NF eod rsi is 30. is the time ripe to go long on NF ? |
not sure since further slide is possible. let's see how far up this recovery goes to . |
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riteshucha
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Joined: 19 May 2012
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| Post: #155 Posted: Tue Aug 06, 2013 3:47 pm Post subject: |
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| did anybody notice the volumes punched in the last minute in Bank nifty? very strange.. wonder if it means anything... did not seem to get executed though...or did it... nearly 15000 lots... |
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vinay28
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| Post: #156 Posted: Tue Aug 06, 2013 3:56 pm Post subject: |
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| riteshucha wrote: | | did anybody notice the volumes punched in the last minute in Bank nifty? very strange.. wonder if it means anything... did not seem to get executed though...or did it... nearly 15000 lots... |
that's because raghuram rajan is appointed as rbi governor and people think he can manage INR better.  |
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riteshucha
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| Post: #157 Posted: Tue Aug 06, 2013 4:01 pm Post subject: |
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then it that case a fire power opening tomm for bank nifty.. and since the way u r smiling i think u are long in bank nifty... 
| vinay28 wrote: | | riteshucha wrote: | | did anybody notice the volumes punched in the last minute in Bank nifty? very strange.. wonder if it means anything... did not seem to get executed though...or did it... nearly 15000 lots... |
that's because raghuram rajan is appointed as rbi governor and people think he can manage INR better. |
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vishyvaranasi
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Joined: 11 Jul 2011
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| Post: #158 Posted: Tue Aug 06, 2013 4:02 pm Post subject: |
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apka, if it closes above 22.11, which looks possible, veryfurther downside is likely. Something like a panic bottom after which a sharp pullback can come.[/quote]
Vinay u mean to interpret that a fall in nifty is still possible after whicha sharp bounce mite happen .
Vishy[/b] |
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vinay28
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| Post: #159 Posted: Tue Aug 06, 2013 4:22 pm Post subject: |
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| vishyvaranasi wrote: | | apka, if it closes above 22.11, which looks possible, veryfurther downside is likely. Something like a panic bottom after which a sharp pullback can come. |
Vinay u mean to interpret that a fall in nifty is still possible after whicha sharp bounce mite happen .
Vishy[/b][/quote]
vishy, I wish I knew how exactly it may behave. It has already recovered 30 points from lows and may recovery somewhat more tmrw and then a fall again, considering long weekend and then perhaps a sharp recovery from next week. BUT today's vix movement is scaring me about much more fall. Hence I am in two minds really. A +ww gives about 25 in vix.
What I mean is I don't know whether it has stopped falling today or it will stop at 5450 or 5170. But from experience, I had posted that normally a recovery is expected after a >11% fall/rise. Unless it is going fall >21% in one move; hopefully not.
best to hedge now I feel unless one is sure. |
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vinay28
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| Post: #160 Posted: Tue Aug 06, 2013 4:23 pm Post subject: |
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| riteshucha wrote: | | then it that case a fire power opening tomm for bank nifty.. and since the way u r smiling i think u are long in bank nifty... |
no ritesh. smile is for people who think that rbi governor can improve INR. The sentiment may. |
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riteshucha
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| Post: #161 Posted: Tue Aug 06, 2013 4:40 pm Post subject: |
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yup may be...
| vinay28 wrote: | | riteshucha wrote: | | then it that case a fire power opening tomm for bank nifty.. and since the way u r smiling i think u are long in bank nifty... |
no ritesh. smile is for people who think that rbi governor can improve INR. The sentiment may. |
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rk_a2003
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Joined: 21 Jan 2010
Posts: 2734
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| Post: #162 Posted: Tue Aug 06, 2013 5:27 pm Post subject: |
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| Has any one observed a text book +ww in hourly Bank Nifty with +ve div in RSI ?. |
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apka
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Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #163 Posted: Tue Aug 06, 2013 5:38 pm Post subject: |
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| rk_a2003 wrote: | | Has any one observed a text book +ww in hourly Bank Nifty with +ve div in RSI ?. |
RK bank stocks have been accumulating +ww with pos div already but when pos div dont work, it means downtrend is strong. pos div dont work in bear markets well, and I think we might be in.
but for reference, has the 5th point formed? |
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rk_a2003
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Joined: 21 Jan 2010
Posts: 2734
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| Post: #164 Posted: Tue Aug 06, 2013 5:56 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | rk_a2003 wrote: | | Has any one observed a text book +ww in hourly Bank Nifty with +ve div in RSI ?. |
RK bank stocks have been accumulating +ww with pos div already but when pos div dont work, it means downtrend is strong. pos div dont work in bear markets well, and I think we might be in.
but for reference, has the 5th point formed? |
Not yet, it will get confirmed with a COG;May be tomorrow.There was a +ve div in RSI at the both ends of ww.I checked the Bank Nifty from past few weeks and could not find a +ww like this.Likely target is around 10200.
As you said ww's are likely to fail in strong trend.Let us see. |
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apka
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Joined: 13 Dec 2011
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| Post: #165 Posted: Tue Aug 06, 2013 6:44 pm Post subject: |
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thanks RK.
| Quote: | Raghuram Rajan is next RBI governor
Raghuram Rajan, the country's chief economic advisor, will take over the mantle of governorship of RBI from D Subbarao, who will retire in September this year. |
I read somewhere : IMF officers secretly visits Delhi and now an ex IMF officer becomes RBI governor. |
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