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Nifty View - August Series 2013 |
apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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Post: #361  Posted: Fri Aug 16, 2013 3:58 pm Post subject: |
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| 7-Aug-2013 low nifty spot intact, but sensex broke its low. |
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rk_a2003
Black Belt
Joined: 21 Jan 2010
Posts: 2734
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| Post: #362 Posted: Fri Aug 16, 2013 3:59 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | rk_a2003 wrote: | | This is the time to chant " NEVER FIGHT THE TREND".Keep chanting..... |
alright, but never chant too much or it gets affixed in head. |
No problem Apka; Such affixing save us from Heroics. |
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apka
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Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #363 Posted: Fri Aug 16, 2013 6:09 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | 1. Indian benchmark government bonds slumped to 21-month lows on Friday and posted their worst week in four-and-a-half years, as the rupee slid to a record low despite policy makers' efforts to defend the currency.
2. The rupee dropped to a record low of 62.03 per dollar on Friday, sparking late intervention from the central bank as its measures to tighten capital outflows raised concerns they could spook foreign investors.
3. India's foreign exchange reserves were up at $278.602 billion as on August 9, compared with $277.17 billion in the earlier week, the Reserve Bank of India said on Friday.
4. The Nifty slumped 4 percent on Friday, marking its biggest daily drop in almost two years, as blue chips including HDFC Bank were hit across the board on fears U.S. stimulus tapering would trigger foreign selling and as the rupee hit a record low.
5. Shares in Axis Bank (AXBK.NS) fall 8.8 percent after MSCI said it would exclude the bank from its standard and large cap indexes. |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #364 Posted: Fri Aug 16, 2013 6:28 pm Post subject: |
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| actually market tanked due to fear of capital controls by govt., which was refuted by FM and rbi later. |
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manojkr78
Green Belt
Joined: 07 Mar 2011
Posts: 1014
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| Post: #365 Posted: Fri Aug 16, 2013 6:31 pm Post subject: |
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Vinay,
Your view on nifty for monday please........ |
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rameshraja
Expert
Joined: 24 Nov 2006
Posts: 1121
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| Post: #366 Posted: Fri Aug 16, 2013 6:31 pm Post subject: |
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Mr Vinay
True.. Brutal selling is due to fear of Capital controls of non-residents.. Govt, trying to put the clock back to 20 years ? |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #367 Posted: Fri Aug 16, 2013 6:45 pm Post subject: |
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| rameshraja wrote: | Mr Vinay
True.. Brutal selling is due to fear of Capital controls of non-residents.. Govt, trying to put the clock back to 20 years ? |
you said it, Mr Raja. Hopefully history won't repeat, as promised by govt today. But I feel even FIIs were also worried about some restrictions on them, not just NRIs.
some buying seems to have emerged from 2pm. |
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apka
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Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #368 Posted: Fri Aug 16, 2013 6:52 pm Post subject: |
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We are back to 1991 has been floating for some days now and so was the capital control statement and already many times FM has said already these are temporary. So what makes today's different? The fact is it will remain implemented till rupee appreciates / stabilizes. But none of the measures have helped. So RBI will still try to enforce more measures as rupee is now crossed 62. So it will turn out to be capital control of sorts.
Whatever these guys say seems mis-leading to me. They try to calm down the nerves by sugar coating words, especially since FM asked RBI to think of growth and employment - that is the Govt's job. |
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apka
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Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #369 Posted: Fri Aug 16, 2013 6:57 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | rameshraja wrote: | Mr Vinay
True.. Brutal selling is due to fear of Capital controls of non-residents.. Govt, trying to put the clock back to 20 years ? |
you said it, Mr Raja. Hopefully history won't repeat, as promised by govt today. But I feel even FIIs were also worried about some restrictions on them, not just NRIs.
some buying seems to have emerged from 2pm. |
That maybe a bounce after -200 fall. EOD has closed near low of -250 and we have made new low after 3pm. All sectors were pelted except Hero Honda, Tata motors.
Nifty Future has added 18% OI to shorts.
Today's volumes were 26 million. |
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pkholla
Black Belt
Joined: 04 Nov 2010
Posts: 2890
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| Post: #370 Posted: Fri Aug 16, 2013 7:36 pm Post subject: |
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| rkchart wrote: | | I found one named "Al Brooks Reading Price Bars" of 37 MB. It must be the one Prakash suggessted. Have started downloading it. Thanks Prakash! |
rkchart & vishy: that's the one. please accept one suggestion! Keep word open 1/3 rd screen, book 2/3 screen. Whatever useful, copy and paste to word. then reformat to your choice (I like Garamond 12). because al brooks is great but heavy reading. then keep reading your selected paras and learn trading as per Al's rules!
Dont forget to transfer his guidelines AND glossary, both at the end of the book
Cheers, Prakash Holla
(PS: Was able to follow entire NF action today almost as if Al Brooks had written the script). If you dont believe me, read my earlier posts today in this thread and Shashangan's thread also. God bless all IC members) |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #371 Posted: Fri Aug 16, 2013 8:40 pm Post subject: |
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| long holders, if any, should have patience. |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #372 Posted: Fri Aug 16, 2013 9:15 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | long holders, if any, should have patience. |
Vinay if VIX crosses 25, would you still feel the same?
I am for having new high this year itself, but currently the underlying selling strength and lack of buying is greater.
I haven't yet read any news about the cash management bills which was supposed to this gone monday, whether any banks participated or not.
It just appears as if, the preparation is for the worse, QE tappering, incase it happens, the dollar-flow assumingly goes out of the country, USDINR will see no barrier. Because ahead also, as the case is right now, banks like SBIN, Union Bank will keep buying dollars on day-to-day basis irrespective of the price because the import bills need to be paid the companies and dollar shortage will spike it's upside.
This is not going to paint a pretty picture.
Although, I was bullish. The incompetency of the this f-ing govt, is pain-stakingly making me rethink investments.
Last edited by apka on Fri Aug 16, 2013 9:21 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #373 Posted: Fri Aug 16, 2013 9:19 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | long holders, if any, should have patience. |
Vinay if VIX crosses 25, would you still feel the same?
I am for having new high this year itself, but currently the underlying selling strength and lack of buying is greater. |
apka, weekly candle of nifty is an imperfect inverted hammer while that of vix is an imperfect hanging man. I feel vix has topped out or will top out on monday. I still feel 5830 and then 5310 by sept end before zooming up. BUT if it goes down first then sharp rise will come much sooner.
let's see how next week, which is crucial, pans out. |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #374 Posted: Sat Aug 17, 2013 11:21 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | According to one observation (based on sun's transit), high/low of period 13/7 to 26/7 each year is vital. Breakout/down in any direction gives good gains till 14/1 of next year (12-90% gain seen in previous 10 years). Gains are high on second breakout/down if first breakdown/out is false.
This year, high/low in this period of July are 6093/5869. Apka/RK, let's track this regularly. |
This was posted on 29/7. 10% below high of above period is 5483.70. So 10% profit made in 13 days if anyone shorted around 6093. 
10% below the low of that period is 5282.10.
Real fun will be if this break down was false. So I am long. |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #375 Posted: Sat Aug 17, 2013 12:10 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | According to one observation (based on sun's transit), high/low of period 13/7 to 26/7 each year is vital. Breakout/down in any direction gives good gains till 14/1 of next year (12-90% gain seen in previous 10 years). Gains are high on second breakout/down if first breakdown/out is false.
This year, high/low in this period of July are 6093/5869. Apka/RK, let's track this regularly. |
This was posted on 29/7. 10% below high of above period is 5483.70. So 10% profit made in 13 days if anyone shorted around 6093.
10% below the low of that period is 5282.10.
Real fun will be if this break down was false. So I am long. |
ok so possibilities to have 5280 too. |
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