iCharts Discussions

[vinay28]

Starting new thread for a new series. In view of confusion between month and expiry, I have edited subject to be more clear.

[vinay28]

Nifty for Monday (29/07/13)

Supports are at about 5840 and 5800 while resistances are at about 5935, 6002 and 6040. Previous gap on lower side is at about 5816. Likely lower levels seem to be 5830, 5750 and 5630. However, it may be noted that 200dma is at about 5852, 26wema is at about 5861 and 50wma is at about 5792. Also, TL joining lows of shoulders of IHnS gives about 5851. Hence and nifty may take support there. Four +WWs can give about 5942 (once above 5888), 5951 (once above 5893), 6010 (once above 5953) and 6022 (once above 5946) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give about 5817 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). Two falling wedge break outs can give about 6045/85 if nifty remains above 5878.

Nifty fell in spite of a gap up open and closed below 5900 and is clearly bearish. Also, a mild -ve div is seen on weekly chart. However, a +ve div is seen on lower TFs and a mild recovery is likely. About 5850 can be the SL for longs while about 6110 the SL for shorts, both SLs being on daily close basis. A break below 5830 can result in lower levels. Oil price and INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. High VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and liquidity can prevent further fall.

[vinay28]

According to one observation (based on sun's transit), high/low of period 13/7 to 26/7 each year is vital. Breakout/down in any direction gives good gains till 14/1 of next year (12-90% gain seen in previous 10 years). Gains are high on second breakout/down if first breakdown/out is false.

This year, high/low in this period of July are 6093/5869. Apka/RK, let's track this regularly.

[vinay28]

A week full of events including rbi policy review tmrw and fed statement

August and Sept are anyway important from fibo point of view. This week is 143rd week from high of Nov 2010 and next month is 34th month from high of Nov 2010. Next month is 53rd month from bottom of march 2009 and 21st month from bottom of Dec 2011

[ajit602]

INTRADAY LEVEL
Sell Below Buy Above
5898.25 5931.75
TGT-1 5881.50 5948.50 TGT-1
TGT-2 5864.75 5965.25 TGT-2
TGT-3 5848.00 5982.00 TGT-3

[apka]

thanks vinay.

Btw, SBIN result is on monday, 5th Aug.

[ajit602]

[vinay28]

[ajit602]

[rrk2006hyd]

is this NIFTY intraday double top ?if yes,can we buy puts?

[vinay28]

[vinay28]

NF and next level OTM calls are below S3 while puts are above R2.

Of course, they can always go below S4 or above R4.

[vinay28]

premium 48.

[apka]

[vinay28]

Nifty for Tuesday (30/07/13)

Supports are at about 5797, 5789 and 5728 while resistances are at about 5856, 5923, 5950, 5983 and 6040. Previous gap on lower side is at about 5816. Likely lower levels seem to be 5750 and 5630. However, 50wma is at about 5803 and nifty may take support around that level. Four +WWs can give about 5949 (once above 5828), 5952 (once above 5884), 6016 (once above 5950) and 6044 (once above 5939) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give about 5776 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned presently). A falling wedge break out can give about 6045 if nifty remains above 5850.

Nifty fell in spite of a gap down open and closed below 5850 and, particularly, below 200dma, which is clearly bearish. However, a +ve div is seen on lower TFs. Also, an imperfect morning star has formed in daily candle. To satisfy this likely bullish sign, nifty must close well above 5900 on Tuesday, preferably with a gap up open. About 5800 can be the SL for longs while about 5950 the SL for shorts, both SLs being on daily close basis. A close below 5800 can result in much lower levels. Oil price and INR will remain key to the future of Indian markets in the short term. High VIX can cause sharp swings. Only global cues and liquidity can prevent further fall. Tuesday being the RBI policy review day and Fed policy being on 31/07, trade carefully.