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Nifty View - August Series |
apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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Post: #31  Posted: Fri Aug 01, 2014 3:27 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | now to see whether it closes above 34 ema..
...I have started buying at 8000ce. NF fell 70 below morning low but 8000ce didn't break its morning low.
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EOD spot will show below 34 ema
about 8000ce, 12.25 low showing is freak number... it broke it's morning trading low of near 17 after 2.40pm |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #32 Posted: Fri Aug 01, 2014 4:13 pm Post subject: |
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| Will nifty honour this support line? I feel as long as nifty doesn't go below 7423 and rsi below 44.14 when this fall ends, we may see a strong reversal. As posted earlier, as of now, I feel 7550 may not be broken, give or take 10-20 points. 50dma is about 7575. Also, IMHO, reversal may happen very soon, latest 6/8. |
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rameshraja
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apka
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Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #34 Posted: Fri Aug 01, 2014 4:57 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | Will nifty honour this support line? I feel as long as nifty doesn't go below 7423 and rsi below 44.14 when this fall ends, we may see a strong reversal. As posted earlier, as of now, I feel 7550 may not be broken, give or take 10-20 points. 50dma is about 7575. Also, IMHO, reversal may happen very soon, latest 6/8. |
5th Tuesday is RBI Policy day. |
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apka
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| Post: #35 Posted: Fri Aug 01, 2014 5:01 pm Post subject: |
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Thanks for the link RR sir. Have bookmarked it for reference.
Please share your views / levels for Aug Nifty and Bank Nifty if you don't mind. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #36 Posted: Fri Aug 01, 2014 5:02 pm Post subject: |
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oh, so nice of you Mr Raja. Yes I did take such a treatment once. I am undergoing similar one again. thanks again |
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vinay28
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Posts: 11748
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| Post: #37 Posted: Fri Aug 01, 2014 5:04 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | Will nifty honour this support line? I feel as long as nifty doesn't go below 7423 and rsi below 44.14 when this fall ends, we may see a strong reversal. As posted earlier, as of now, I feel 7550 may not be broken, give or take 10-20 points. 50dma is about 7575. Also, IMHO, reversal may happen very soon, latest 6/8. |
5th Tuesday is RBI Policy day. |
I have already told Raghu to cut interest rate. 
check 34 ema and 50 sma on daily chart. also 9 sma and 45 ema. |
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amitagg
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Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #38 Posted: Fri Aug 01, 2014 7:05 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | apka wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | Will nifty honour this support line? I feel as long as nifty doesn't go below 7423 and rsi below 44.14 when this fall ends, we may see a strong reversal. As posted earlier, as of now, I feel 7550 may not be broken, give or take 10-20 points. 50dma is about 7575. Also, IMHO, reversal may happen very soon, latest 6/8. |
5th Tuesday is RBI Policy day. |
I have already told Raghu to cut interest rate.
check 34 ema and 50 sma on daily chart. also 9 sma and 45 ema. |
Hope u are 5 th time lucky and fabulous too which u are.....
Why the double combo 'MAs in same timeframe.... Any ' brief' insight is welcome |
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apka
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Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #39 Posted: Fri Aug 01, 2014 8:19 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | apka wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | Will nifty honour this support line? I feel as long as nifty doesn't go below 7423 and rsi below 44.14 when this fall ends, we may see a strong reversal. As posted earlier, as of now, I feel 7550 may not be broken, give or take 10-20 points. 50dma is about 7575. Also, IMHO, reversal may happen very soon, latest 6/8. |
5th Tuesday is RBI Policy day. |
I have already told Raghu to cut interest rate.
check 34 ema and 50 sma on daily chart. also 9 sma and 45 ema. |
Nifty Spot close: 7603
34ema: 7610
45ema: 7546
9sma: 7748
50sma: 7575
SGX Nifty after market is behaving erratically on good volumes.. low 7611, high 7684 and now 7665.
Also interestingly both Nifty and Banknifty's daily RSI value has been rising while both the indexes are falling and closing lower.
AUG Open Interest: 1,24,73,850 (This is very low)
Change in Open Interest: -7,44,100%
Change in Open Interest: -5.63%
No shorting... and statistics show FII net sold more than 1000cr in Index Futures.
FII sold and DII bought same amount of equities some 1000cr. |
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doctorshah
White Belt
Joined: 24 Jul 2011
Posts: 95
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| Post: #40 Posted: Fri Aug 01, 2014 8:51 pm Post subject: |
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| Apka Who was responsible for such great fall? Margin calls? Also this is third consecutive day when DII purchased |
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apka
Black Belt
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Posts: 6137
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| Post: #41 Posted: Fri Aug 01, 2014 9:00 pm Post subject: |
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| doctorshah wrote: | | Apka Who was responsible for such great fall? Margin calls? Also this is third consecutive day when DII purchased |
Indeed and in big numbers.
It's only a guess, but intraday OI went upto 145-150 lakhs... so longs exiting. |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #42 Posted: Fri Aug 01, 2014 9:29 pm Post subject: |
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Vinay, you had asked to keep watch on INFY, was it for intraday recovery for closing?
What level are you expecting it touch positionally? |
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chetan83
Brown Belt
Joined: 19 Feb 2010
Posts: 2036
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| Post: #43 Posted: Fri Aug 01, 2014 10:28 pm Post subject: |
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| Nifty trend in the month of August is being Negative for the most of the time....also it has closed below the monthly Pivot, hence next week, I will hedge my position with 7500 PE below Rs.60 or 70, Target double. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #44 Posted: Sat Aug 02, 2014 8:50 am Post subject: |
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| amitagg wrote: | Hope u are 5 th time lucky and fabulous too which u are.....
Why the double combo 'MAs in same timeframe.... Any ' brief' insight is welcome |
I will always believe I am lucky if I go right. No point in boasting about my acumen, whatever little I may have.
it wasn't a double combo but two separate aspects. nifty has mostly taken support from 34ema/50dma in this uptrend while some people use 9sma/34ema crossover with rsi watch, even in in lower TFs, for their trades. Not that I go by these things but just for confirmation.
About 7550, give or take 10-20, is crucial for reversal but I will also keep track of levels posted earlier of nifty vis-à-vis rsi on daily for assurance. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #45 Posted: Sat Aug 02, 2014 8:59 am Post subject: |
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| doctorshah wrote: | | Apka Who was responsible for such great fall? Margin calls? Also this is third consecutive day when DII purchased |
it's a sympathetic fall to world markets, which have become jittery about QE closing in sept and chances of earlier rate hike by fed. while in our case, rates will slowly go down. with US showing higher gdp growth, dollar becoming strong and INR weak though it may not go below 61.80.
persistent -ve rate will take its toll on world market one day as money dries out. |
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