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Nifty View - August Series |
manojkr78
Green Belt
Joined: 07 Mar 2011
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Post: #331  Posted: Wed Aug 27, 2014 11:46 am Post subject: |
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Vinay,
should it first fill yesterday gap before a up move?? |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
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| Post: #332 Posted: Wed Aug 27, 2014 11:50 am Post subject: |
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| manojkr78 wrote: | Vinay,
should it first fill yesterday gap before a up move?? |
preferably no. |
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manojkr78
Green Belt
Joined: 07 Mar 2011
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| Post: #333 Posted: Wed Aug 27, 2014 1:52 pm Post subject: |
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| ok |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
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| Post: #334 Posted: Wed Aug 27, 2014 8:16 pm Post subject: |
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Updating yesterday's chart showing two examples of price reversal in a broadening top pattern after a partial decline. Today also, first attempt of BO failed just as it did on 25/8. Unfortunately, I am afraid 8025 may be the top for tmrw. I will update tmrw morning if I see higher number in my dream.  |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
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| Post: #335 Posted: Wed Aug 27, 2014 8:58 pm Post subject: |
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Nifty for Thursday (28/08/14)
Supports are closely spaced at about 7921, 7909, 7900, 7876, 7860 and 7823 while resistances are at about 7973, 7987/93, 8014, 8026 and 8081. Three +WWs can give about 7954, 7990 and 8015 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). A -WW can give about 7845 (-WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A bullish flag can give much higher level unless killed below 7795. An IHnS can give about 8170-8275 in case nifty sustains above about 7881. BO of two broadening top patterns can give 7876 and 8067.
Nifty closed flat after a gap up open but at an all time high. The -ve div on daily and weekly still persists and RSI has not gone above 67.25. However, monthly chart is still good. If NS doesn't go above 7969 on Thursday, we can see a reversal but a close above 7969 will be bullish. A close below 7900 can bring bears back. Liquidity is strong and one needs to be careful. We can also see wild intraday swings, today being expiry. |
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apka
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Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #336 Posted: Wed Aug 27, 2014 9:39 pm Post subject: |
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I checked how when the trend of nifty sees a stop or reversal on monthly candlesticks over the past few years. It seems the closing the 1st time under the upper band shows a stop in the momentum.
Since march 2014, the monthly closings have above outside the upper bollinger band. This month's value is showing as 7785, but I think on friday it maybe near 7850. Unless we close under monthly upper band, trend is still intact. |
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vinay28
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| Post: #337 Posted: Wed Aug 27, 2014 9:42 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | I checked how when the trend of nifty sees a stop or reversal on monthly candlesticks over the past few years. It seems the closing the 1st time under the upper band shows a stop in the momentum.
Since march 2014, the monthly closings have above outside the upper bollinger band. This month's value is showing as 7785, but I think on friday it maybe near 7850. Unless we close under monthly upper band, trend is still intact. |
apka, bearish reversal was triggered today but has to be confirmed by a lower high and red candle. that's why going to/above 7969 is essential tmrw for bulls. |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #338 Posted: Wed Aug 27, 2014 10:09 pm Post subject: |
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| What is SL for longs |
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vinay28
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| Post: #339 Posted: Thu Aug 28, 2014 8:36 am Post subject: |
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| amitagg wrote: | | What is SL for longs |
amit, yesterday it was daily close below 7900 but today I feel, due to volatility, it should be daily close below yesterday's low or even close.
Having said this, I now feel that we may at best see 8025 intraday and then expiry around 7980. So my 8000ce are in danger unless it crosses above 8000 before 11.30. I also feel that in spite of this, in Sept., nifty may first go to about 7800 before going to 8300.
I also feel that now onwards, SL for longs should be daily close below previous day's close/low or in case of a sharp breach of previous day's low, get out. |
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apka
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| Post: #340 Posted: Thu Aug 28, 2014 9:31 am Post subject: |
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| incidentally, today is the 100th day of Modi govt. |
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rk_a2003
Black Belt
Joined: 21 Jan 2010
Posts: 2734
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| Post: #341 Posted: Thu Aug 28, 2014 9:32 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | amitagg wrote: | | What is SL for longs |
amit, yesterday it was daily close below 7900 but today I feel, due to volatility, it should be daily close below yesterday's low or even close.
Having said this, I now feel that we may at best see 8025 intraday and then expiry around 7980. So my 8000ce are in danger unless it crosses above 8000 before 11.30. I also feel that in spite of this, in Sept., nifty may first go to about 7800 before going to 8300.
I also feel that now onwards, SL for longs should be daily close below previous day's close/low or in case of a sharp breach of previous day's low, get out. |
I agree with this but in reverse order.  |
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a1b1trader
Yellow Belt
Joined: 13 Jul 2014
Posts: 691
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| Post: #342 Posted: Thu Aug 28, 2014 9:34 am Post subject: |
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| rk_a2003 wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | amitagg wrote: | | What is SL for longs |
amit, yesterday it was daily close below 7900 but today I feel, due to volatility, it should be daily close below yesterday's low or even close.
Having said this, I now feel that we may at best see 8025 intraday and then expiry around 7980. So my 8000ce are in danger unless it crosses above 8000 before 11.30. I also feel that in spite of this, in Sept., nifty may first go to about 7800 before going to 8300.
I also feel that now onwards, SL for longs should be daily close below previous day's close/low or in case of a sharp breach of previous day's low, get out. |
I agree with this but in reverse order. |
IMO, the order will depend on Supreme Court judgement on Coal Blocks allocation on 1.9. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #343 Posted: Thu Aug 28, 2014 9:38 am Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | incidentally, today is the 100th day of Modi govt. |
that's why the gift of 8000 to him. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #344 Posted: Thu Aug 28, 2014 9:38 am Post subject: |
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| a1b1trader wrote: | | rk_a2003 wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | amitagg wrote: | | What is SL for longs |
amit, yesterday it was daily close below 7900 but today I feel, due to volatility, it should be daily close below yesterday's low or even close.
Having said this, I now feel that we may at best see 8025 intraday and then expiry around 7980. So my 8000ce are in danger unless it crosses above 8000 before 11.30. I also feel that in spite of this, in Sept., nifty may first go to about 7800 before going to 8300.
I also feel that now onwards, SL for longs should be daily close below previous day's close/low or in case of a sharp breach of previous day's low, get out. |
I agree with this but in reverse order. |
IMO, the order will depend on Supreme Court judgement on Coal Blocks allocation on 1.9. |
I feel that will be inconsequential. |
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a1b1trader
Yellow Belt
Joined: 13 Jul 2014
Posts: 691
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| Post: #345 Posted: Thu Aug 28, 2014 9:51 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | a1b1trader wrote: | | rk_a2003 wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | amitagg wrote: | | What is SL for longs |
amit, yesterday it was daily close below 7900 but today I feel, due to volatility, it should be daily close below yesterday's low or even close.
Having said this, I now feel that we may at best see 8025 intraday and then expiry around 7980. So my 8000ce are in danger unless it crosses above 8000 before 11.30. I also feel that in spite of this, in Sept., nifty may first go to about 7800 before going to 8300.
I also feel that now onwards, SL for longs should be daily close below previous day's close/low or in case of a sharp breach of previous day's low, get out. |
I agree with this but in reverse order. |
IMO, the order will depend on Supreme Court judgement on Coal Blocks allocation on 1.9. |
I feel that will be inconsequential. |
Okay, then check this out on Monday/Tuesday |
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