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Nifty View - August Series |
vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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Post: #346  Posted: Thu Aug 28, 2014 9:57 am Post subject: |
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| Not trying to misguide anyone but it's possible to see 8044-79 on nifty and 15900-16100 on banknifity. I am not going to wait for such levels as moves can be too fast to follow. |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #347 Posted: Thu Aug 28, 2014 1:05 pm Post subject: |
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| 1.32 crore OI at 8000ce and 7900pe OI at 88 lakhs... full plan to bore us to death today. |
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harsh_85
White Belt
Joined: 06 Nov 2011
Posts: 16
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| Post: #348 Posted: Thu Aug 28, 2014 1:22 pm Post subject: |
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| lol |
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ragarwal
Yellow Belt
Joined: 16 Nov 2008
Posts: 582
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| Post: #349 Posted: Thu Aug 28, 2014 1:25 pm Post subject: |
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not fr writers apka  |
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harsh_85
White Belt
Joined: 06 Nov 2011
Posts: 16
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| Post: #350 Posted: Thu Aug 28, 2014 1:30 pm Post subject: |
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| the interesting thing to look at, is, 7950 pe is adding more OI than 7950 ce... |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #351 Posted: Thu Aug 28, 2014 1:34 pm Post subject: |
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| ragarwal wrote: | | not fr writers apka |
rashmiiiiiiiii!  |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #352 Posted: Thu Aug 28, 2014 3:25 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | apka wrote: | I checked how when the trend of nifty sees a stop or reversal on monthly candlesticks over the past few years. It seems the closing the 1st time under the upper band shows a stop in the momentum.
Since march 2014, the monthly closings have above outside the upper bollinger band. This month's value is showing as 7785, but I think on friday it maybe near 7850. Unless we close under monthly upper band, trend is still intact. |
apka, bearish reversal was triggered today but has to be confirmed by a lower high and red candle. that's why going to/above 7969 is essential tmrw for bulls. |
Note that previous high of 7968.25 was not taken out today. Not a good sign even though it's a green candle but like a spinning top. Bearish reversal still exits unless NS goes above 7969 in this run. Just see chart of sept 7800pe vis-à-vis nifty and how it shot up near eod. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #353 Posted: Thu Aug 28, 2014 4:13 pm Post subject: |
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| Two partial declines leading to rise and now a partial rise? |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #354 Posted: Thu Aug 28, 2014 4:25 pm Post subject: |
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| Nifty's likely support zones on lower side along with long term support TLs. Question is whether it falls from here or after another rise of 300-350 points. Sustaining below about 7907 and breaking 7860 may cause it. However, if it sustains above 7969 first then may be after a rise. If it falls first and takes support at these zones (probably upper zone) then it may rise again to about 8300. However, the danger is that a -WW can give 7300 once below 7900. |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #355 Posted: Thu Aug 28, 2014 9:01 pm Post subject: |
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Well said. You have given the exit point as 7907 - 7860 for all. The upward movement beyond 7970 if it happens shall be still difficult to decipher in terms of targets ( 8030 or 8125 or 8350 or .....)
I would still hope for a "usual 900 pointer move" ( this time from 7200 to hit 8100 approx)
One possibility remains of a up and down volatile 200 point move with market remaining same till Diwali to keep sentiments high and then the major fall awaited to connect back to the way behind 200 dma. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #356 Posted: Thu Aug 28, 2014 9:28 pm Post subject: |
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| amitagg wrote: | Well said. You have given the exit point as 7907 - 7860 for all. The upward movement beyond 7970 if it happens shall be still difficult to decipher in terms of targets ( 8030 or 8125 or 8350 or .....)
I would still hope for a "usual 900 pointer move" ( this time from 7200 to hit 8100 approx)
One possibility remains of a up and down volatile 200 point move with market remaining same till Diwali to keep sentiments high and then the major fall awaited to connect back to the way behind 200 dma. |
amit, when price makes a new all time high, it hardly reacts unless fundas or global eco develops crisis. remember I posted months ago that S&P has made over 80 new highs without a 10% correction. our market is very bullish and hence it's not sell on rise but buy on dips market, which means one won't make much money in buying puts unless one is nimble and is happy with small and quick hit&run.
I am only looking at 7800/7750 before next rally and hence have bought 7800pe.
By one account we may see at least 11200+ before a sizeable reaction and it may come mighty quick. Why fight liquidity.
I always believe that I am wrong unless market proves me right. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #357 Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2014 6:02 pm Post subject: Re: Nifty View - August Series |
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| vinay28 wrote: | sorry, didn't get much time to post thanks to MTNL.
as of now, I see 7540-60 and then 8200 in august. |
this was posted on 1st august. so right about bottom but so wrong about top!  |
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