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Nifty View - December '14 Series |
vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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Post: #331  Posted: Sat Dec 20, 2014 5:17 pm Post subject: |
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| chandrujimrc wrote: | Dear Vinay,
Sorry for the delayed reply,due to my personal work I am unable to participate regularly. As per my previous statement mkt has given 300 point rally from recent low.Now struggling to cross 50 Dma,if it breaks 100 Dma again mkt will move towards 200Dma which is extremely overdue. |
tks chandru. Hope you will start posting regularly soon. I feel move towards 200 dma may take more time e.g. may be July'15. Of course the fall should start from march (14/15/22) IMHO. |
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apka
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Joined: 13 Dec 2011
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| Post: #332 Posted: Mon Dec 22, 2014 10:04 am Post subject: |
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Bought and kept Jan series 8800ce @ 15 now. Hope to see an upmove and a new high in Jan as part of a pre-budget rally.
A no pre-budget rally for the new Modi sarkar would seem like an anti-climax. So, let's see. |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #333 Posted: Mon Dec 22, 2014 10:22 am Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | Bought and kept Jan series 8800ce @ 15 now. Hope to see an upmove and a new high in Jan as part of a pre-budget rally.
A no pre-budget rally for the new Modi sarkar would seem like an anti-climax. So, let's see. |
apka, I would advise you to get out of 8800 and buy 8500, smaller qty if you wish and start accumulating 8800ce for feb. |
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apka
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Posts: 6137
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| Post: #334 Posted: Mon Dec 22, 2014 10:40 am Post subject: |
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ok vinay... though feb 8800ce is quite expensive in comparison  |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #335 Posted: Mon Dec 22, 2014 10:50 am Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | ok vinay... though feb 8800ce is quite expensive in comparison |
I said accumulate apka, which means slowly as it will come down.
This is what I feel may happen from today:
Lower side 8218/8199NF and max 8320-40NF today when I feel one should get out. Higher levels possible only if 8381 is taken out. Otherwise, it may fall again for a couple of days and then 8600+ (or 8700) may be max till early Jan. Then a good fall for a week or two before next rally. |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #336 Posted: Mon Dec 22, 2014 2:55 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | apka wrote: | | ok vinay... though feb 8800ce is quite expensive in comparison |
I said accumulate apka, which means slowly as it will come down.
This is what I feel may happen from today:
Lower side 8218/8199NF and max 8320-40NF today when I feel one should get out. Higher levels possible only if 8381 is taken out. Otherwise, it may fall again for a couple of days and then 8600+ (or 8700) may be max till early Jan. Then a good fall for a week or two before next rally. |
first target of 8320 met. sold half calls |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #337 Posted: Mon Dec 22, 2014 3:12 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | apka wrote: | | ok vinay... though feb 8800ce is quite expensive in comparison |
I said accumulate apka, which means slowly as it will come down.
This is what I feel may happen from today:
Lower side 8218/8199NF and max 8320-40NF today when I feel one should get out. Higher levels possible only if 8381 is taken out. Otherwise, it may fall again for a couple of days and then 8600+ (or 8700) may be max till early Jan. Then a good fall for a week or two before next rally. |
first target of 8320 met. sold half calls |
sold all 8200ce and Jan 8600ce. holding small 8400ce just in case. |
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NU2013
White Belt
Joined: 18 Jul 2013
Posts: 104
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| Post: #338 Posted: Mon Dec 22, 2014 3:15 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | apka wrote: | | ok vinay... though feb 8800ce is quite expensive in comparison |
I said accumulate apka, which means slowly as it will come down.
This is what I feel may happen from today:
Lower side 8218/8199NF and max 8320-40NF today when I feel one should get out. Higher levels possible only if 8381 is taken out. Otherwise, it may fall again for a couple of days and then 8600+ (or 8700) may be max till early Jan. Then a good fall for a week or two before next rally. |
first target of 8320 met. sold half calls |
sold all 8200ce and Jan 8600ce. holding small 8400ce just in case. |
What is your target for 8400 CE?? |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #339 Posted: Mon Dec 22, 2014 6:32 pm Post subject: |
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| NU2013 wrote: | | What is your target for 8400 CE?? |
NU, actually, I sold them too in the last few minutes when I realised it wasn't going up much though NF was. There are a few reasons for it.
Note that nifty has gone up 360 points in 4 days (perhaps you forgot what I had told you last week about sharp rise in 4-5 days) and generally, it tends to react after such a gain or at the most 400 points. If 8380 is going to be the expiry then you can imagine how choppy it will be in next two days and time value of 8400ce will crash. I feel it may come down to 8275/50 before rising again, whether from here or after it goes to 8380 tmrw, which no one can predict in spite of the fact that it closed at day's high and may mean a gap up opening. I was not prepared to take risk in such a case having made good money already.
On the other hand expiry can be 8480 also as I had posted last week but I am not sure about it as yet. For that to happen 60tf must close above 8335NF and even then, immediate target will be 8425/35. Only a 60tf close above 8425 may mean higher expiry if it happens well before expiry.
Yesterday I had mentioned that NS must cross 8349 to nullify bearish div but it didn't. Now it has to cross 8547. Dicey IMHO.
However, having said above, best gamble as of now is 8400ce except that best price to buy such options is between 5-10 with SL as zero. It doesn't make sense to buy in case of a gap up open tmrw and also if it goes below 5 tmrw, the latter being my finding over many months of observation and it has failed only once in the past i.e. in spite of going below 5 the previous day, it has shot up on expiry day. If it does shoot up, likely target could be 25-75.
However, if it does go to 8275 tmrw, I will buy 8300ce. If it goes to 8380 tmrw first, I may buy 8400pe.
Hope above clarifies. |
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apka
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Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #340 Posted: Mon Dec 22, 2014 6:49 pm Post subject: |
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| There is an ihns active for trgt 8420-8480. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #341 Posted: Mon Dec 22, 2014 6:58 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | There is an ihns active for trgt 8420-8480. |
yes apka but doesn't have to happen by expiry.
also, IHnS target is much much more |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #342 Posted: Mon Dec 22, 2014 8:15 pm Post subject: |
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This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.
Nifty for Tuesday (23/12/14) and beyond
Supports are at about 8294, 8257 and 8191 while resistances are at about 8339, 8361, 8380, 8398 and 8453. A previous unfilled gap on lower side is at about 8225. Three +WWs can give about 8359 (if above 8249), 8394 (if above 8291) and 8475. A -WW can give about 8204 (once below 8272) (-WWs with much lower targets are not mentioned as of now). Two IHnS can give about 8410/8610 once above 8270/8390.
Nifty rose sharply in spite of a big gap up open and closed well above 8300 and suddenly appears bullish. However, the bearish div persists and now will not vanish unless nifty crosses above 8547. Nifty now has to close above 8377 and then 8455 to continue the upmove. A close below 8180 could be bad. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term. Being a truncated expiry week, trade carefully. |
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NU2013
White Belt
Joined: 18 Jul 2013
Posts: 104
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| Post: #343 Posted: Mon Dec 22, 2014 8:32 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | NU2013 wrote: | | What is your target for 8400 CE?? |
NU, actually, I sold them too in the last few minutes when I realised it wasn't going up much though NF was. There are a few reasons for it.
Note that nifty has gone up 360 points in 4 days (perhaps you forgot what I had told you last week about sharp rise in 4-5 days) and generally, it tends to react after such a gain or at the most 400 points. If 8380 is going to be the expiry then you can imagine how choppy it will be in next two days and time value of 8400ce will crash. I feel it may come down to 8275/50 before rising again, whether from here or after it goes to 8380 tmrw, which no one can predict in spite of the fact that it closed at day's high and may mean a gap up opening. I was not prepared to take risk in such a case having made good money already.
On the other hand expiry can be 8480 also as I had posted last week but I am not sure about it as yet. For that to happen 60tf must close above 8335NF and even then, immediate target will be 8425/35. Only a 60tf close above 8425 may mean higher expiry if it happens well before expiry.
Yesterday I had mentioned that NS must cross 8349 to nullify bearish div but it didn't. Now it has to cross 8547. Dicey IMHO.
However, having said above, best gamble as of now is 8400ce except that best price to buy such options is between 5-10 with SL as zero. It doesn't make sense to buy in case of a gap up open tmrw and also if it goes below 5 tmrw, the latter being my finding over many months of observation and it has failed only once in the past i.e. in spite of going below 5 the previous day, it has shot up on expiry day. If it does shoot up, likely target could be 25-75.
However, if it does go to 8275 tmrw, I will buy 8300ce. If it goes to 8380 tmrw first, I may buy 8400pe.
Hope above clarifies. |
Thanks Vinay,
I got out of 8600 CE and my cost for 8400 CE is about 3.00 bucks only!! No big quantities!! So, hope to get out in time!! Long for Jan'15 already!! |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #344 Posted: Mon Dec 22, 2014 8:39 pm Post subject: |
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| NU2013 wrote: | Thanks Vinay,
I got out of 8600 CE and my cost for 8400 CE is about 3.00 bucks only!! No big quantities!! So, hope to get out in time!! Long for Jan'15 already!! |
I would still say get out if it opens up and we see about 8380. also I am, as of now, bearish from 02/01 till 22/01. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #345 Posted: Tue Dec 23, 2014 9:09 am Post subject: |
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| NU, since your cost is 3, I suggest a SL of a bit below 50% of yesterday's or today's high whichever is higher. Take your own decision. |
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