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Nifty View - December |
vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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Post: #211  Posted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 6:37 pm Post subject: |
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| no steve, adjusted close was 5940.45 i.e. premium of 40 |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #212 Posted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 6:45 pm Post subject: |
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apka, both are doji or spinning top but evening stars also?  |
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SP50
Brown Belt
Joined: 26 Nov 2010
Posts: 1615
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| Post: #213 Posted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 6:54 pm Post subject: |
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| taxmann50 wrote: | If the FDI vote comes out positive tonite as much as expected now and the way market leaped to close above 5900, it will be as what Vinay expects a big long term buy,
I think the chances of gap up is more possible. |
UPA FDI win in LS..... Now one more to go in RS, up up and more up nifty  |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #214 Posted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 7:02 pm Post subject: |
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taxmann, don't count chicken even before the eggs are laid.  |
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SP50
Brown Belt
Joined: 26 Nov 2010
Posts: 1615
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| Post: #215 Posted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 7:07 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | taxmann, don't count chicken even before the eggs are laid. |
You mean the eggs can vanish in thin air?  |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #216 Posted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 7:14 pm Post subject: |
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no the hen may not be due yet.  |
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SP50
Brown Belt
Joined: 26 Nov 2010
Posts: 1615
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| Post: #217 Posted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 7:16 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | no the hen may not be due yet. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #218 Posted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 7:49 pm Post subject: |
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| This is for those like saumya who have bought 6300CE. I have made a table of calculated values of 6300CE assuming that expiry will be about 6170NF (my present prediction). Based on today's IV which is about 19, I have calculated value of CE if 6170NF is reached on different days. Of course this is very approximate in that IV is assumed to be constant and expiry is at 6170NF. If 6170 is reached fast, IV will shoot up and so will the value of CE and vice versa. It will also vary depending on OI of 6300CE. But hopefully this file will help decide SL noting how NF moves over the days. No. of days to expiry are working days to make it safer. I have also drawn a chart. |
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saumya12
Brown Belt
Joined: 21 Dec 2011
Posts: 1509
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| Post: #219 Posted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 8:07 pm Post subject: |
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Thank Vinay for the XL sheet and its contents.
I will certainly take care of your calculations at the appropriate time.
Thanks once again |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #220 Posted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 8:10 pm Post subject: |
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| note that I have assumed that the earliest 6170 can happen is EOD 11 Dec |
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saumya12
Brown Belt
Joined: 21 Dec 2011
Posts: 1509
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| Post: #221 Posted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 8:22 pm Post subject: |
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| Yes, I have noted that. |
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rk_a2003
Black Belt
Joined: 21 Jan 2010
Posts: 2734
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| Post: #222 Posted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 9:52 pm Post subject: |
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| Headline trading that too a well-known fact often will not work in the stock market. FDI approval in LS may not have a big effect. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #223 Posted: Thu Dec 06, 2012 8:29 am Post subject: |
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| RK, that's becaue market may have discounted it. PCR is still 1.07 and must go below 1.0 for any rally |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #224 Posted: Thu Dec 06, 2012 8:53 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | RK, that's becaue market may have discounted it. PCR is still 1.07 and must go below 1.0 for any rally |
vinay but ordinarily whenever market shoots up pcr is more 1.3 and above. because puts are written more and the writers keep the market up. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #225 Posted: Thu Dec 06, 2012 9:00 am Post subject: |
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| apka, if I remember right, the highest that pcr went recently was 1.17 and then nifty took pause. But it can't sustain market at high level that you mentioned. So one possibility is sudden rise in few days and then weeks long correction. Or, as I feel, a little flat for a few days till pcr comes down and then rally. |
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