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Nifty View - December |
pkholla
Black Belt
Joined: 04 Nov 2010
Posts: 2890
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Post: #46  Posted: Fri Nov 30, 2012 6:21 pm Post subject: |
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Apka: My understanding is they go home for Christmas and there is still time for FII to do golmal before 25th. Some of them go home for Easter and there is even more time for that! So dont lose hope of 6300? / 7400?. I am certainly waiting for some (any) of my recycle bin to come within dispose off price and contribute to my LIQUIDITY (QE1 in Prakash Holla's trading account!)
Vinay/ Sam: Till then, Shaw Wallace will contribute with another kind of liquidity to ease the pain and reach a new "HI". Happy Hours, IC biradari!
Cheers and Jai Hind, Prakash Holla
Update for Saturday: Spot Hi on Friday leads to Future Lo on Saturday
Last edited by pkholla on Sat Dec 01, 2012 11:55 am; edited 1 time in total |
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apka
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
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| Post: #48 Posted: Fri Nov 30, 2012 8:40 pm Post subject: |
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| apka/sam - NS displays three advancing soldiers but NF exhibits Advance Block (platter) pattern indicating a possible reversal. You need to closely watch F&O action. It's possible that Nifty will take a breather while cash buying continues in mid/small cap. |
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psalm
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Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #49 Posted: Fri Nov 30, 2012 10:06 pm Post subject: Bearish Gartley |
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| I had earlier posted Nifty chart forming Head & Shoulder pattern. I have seen Vinay posting a possible Negative WW pattern in the Daily chart. Now I'm posting another pattern which again could give a SELL in Nifty next week. Nifty has formed almost a perfect (except timewise) BEARISH GARTLEY pattern. Posting the chart here: |
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vinay28
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| Post: #50 Posted: Fri Nov 30, 2012 10:15 pm Post subject: |
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there is always a caveat for every prediction e.g. it fails if.......  |
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psalm
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Joined: 12 Nov 2011
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| Post: #51 Posted: Fri Nov 30, 2012 10:52 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | there is always a caveat for every prediction e.g. it fails if....... |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
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| Post: #52 Posted: Sat Dec 01, 2012 7:46 pm Post subject: |
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| sam, your gartley doesn't satisfy "MUST" conditions of Gartely as far as EXACT requirements of B, C and D are concerned. How do you call it perfect? |
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psalm
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Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #53 Posted: Sat Dec 01, 2012 8:16 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | sam, your gartley doesn't satisfy "MUST" conditions of Gartely as far as EXACT requirements of B, C and D are concerned. How do you call it perfect? |
Okie...then tell me which conditions it doesn't satisfy?.....other than the time aspect.... |
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vinay28
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| Post: #54 Posted: Sat Dec 01, 2012 8:41 pm Post subject: |
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| values sam. As I remember gartley was very strict about exact retracement levels and that AB mut be same as CD. In any case, this will get defeated if nifty goes above about 6167 and then a new high |
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psalm
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Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #55 Posted: Sat Dec 01, 2012 9:04 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | values sam. As I remember gartley was very strict about exact retracement levels and that AB mut be same as CD. In any case, this will get defeated if nifty goes above about 6167 and then a new high |
Gartley was NOT particular about any retracement, it is flexible regarding that....I'm posting the rules for the Gartley pattern:
The swing from Point A will terminate at Point D. This will be at the 0.618 or 0.786 retracement level of Swing XA 75% of the time. The other 25% of the time the retracements will be 0.362, 0.50, or 0.707. A 0.50 retracement is a strong pattern.
(There have been books and trading systems written about and designed around 0.50 divisions of swings in time and price).
There “should” be an CD = AB pattern observed in the move from A to D. At times CD may equal 0.618, 0.707, or 0.786 of AB. At times CD may equal 1.272 of AB.
The BC move will typically be 0.618 or 0.786 of AB. In strongly trending markets expect only a 0.382 or 0.50 retracement.
Analyze the time frames from Point X to A and A to D. These time frames will also be in ratio and proportion. For example, assume that the number of time candles from Point X to A is equal to 17 candles and the time candles from A to D is equal to 11. Eleven is approximately 0.618 of seventeen.
There will be a few instances where the CD = AB move will give a price objective at Point X. This will be a true double bottom or double top formation.
If Point X is exceeded the trend will continue to move to at least 1.272 or 1.618 of the X to A move.
NOTE: Don't get deceived by the looks, Vinay. Check the charts again....AB=CD
AB = 5630 - 4531 = 1100
CD = 5880 - 4770 = 1110 |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
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| Post: #56 Posted: Sat Dec 01, 2012 9:32 pm Post subject: |
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"NOTE: Don't get deceived by the looks, Vinay. Check the charts again....AB=CD
AB = 5630 - 4531 = 1100
CD = 5880 - 4770 = 1110"
I am not sam, but CD is already>AB and threatning to go up more. Also, as I said, from what I rememeber, the fibo based modification of Gartley by others after him (Gartley's original did not contain fibo but just 1/3 and 2/3 ratios) says MUST everywhere about these conditions. Anyway, let's see how market moves. If it works, I feel 5624/5462 is possible. Otherwise, it's just one way up with minor hiccups. |
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psalm
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Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #57 Posted: Sat Dec 01, 2012 9:56 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | "NOTE: Don't get deceived by the looks, Vinay. Check the charts again....AB=CD
AB = 5630 - 4531 = 1100
CD = 5880 - 4770 = 1110"
I am not sam, but CD is already>AB and threatning to go up more. Also, as I said, from what I rememeber, the fibo based modification of Gartley by others after him (Gartley's original did not contain fibo but just 1/3 and 2/3 ratios) says MUST everywhere about these conditions. Anyway, let's see how market moves. If it works, I feel 5624/5462 is possible. Otherwise, it's just one way up with minor hiccups. |
So, you're suggesting that if the condition AB = CD, then you'll take only 1100=1100 situations??...you wont take 10 or 20 point difference??...
By the way, Vinay where exactly is he using 1/3 or 2/3 ratio instead of percentages for retracements??....can you tell me the page number of his book??...I have checked that book already and couldn't find anything like that....
NOTE: I didn't say that the market WILL CRASH tomorrow or day after tomorrow.....I have shown a few tricky pattern for those holding LONGs....even I don't know if the pattern I have spotted will work and if the market will go down....I see good chance for that....technical analysis is all about chances, probabilities....I see good chances of market going down in the next few days.....may be from Monday itself.....Even I see the global markets starts correcting from this week.....cos, I see the probabilities are pretty high as per many factors including these patterns....thats why posted them....Anyway, only time will tell if I got it right or not.....Let's wait and see how the events unfolds in the next few days....  |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #58 Posted: Sat Dec 01, 2012 10:18 pm Post subject: |
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sam, from what I recollect, Gartley used only 1/3 and 2/3 ratios when he published his book in 30s (also called 222 pattern since it appeared on page 222 of his original). Much later in 90s, it became famous after someone called Pasavento (and one more guy I think), who introduced fibo element in harmonic pattern trading. I am sure you will find a lot on this on the net. Try to see if you get any material on Gartley Controversy also.
By the way, I am mildly short and will add till 5944NS, if at all it goes there. After that I will cover all shorts. |
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psalm
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Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #59 Posted: Sat Dec 01, 2012 10:30 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | sam, from what I recollect, Gartley used only 1/3 and 2/3 ratios when he published his book in 30s (also called 222 pattern since it appeared on page 222 of his original). Much later in 90s, it became famous after someone called Pasavento (and one more guy I think), who introduced fibo element in harmonic pattern trading. I am sure you will find a lot on this on the net. Try to see if you get any material on Gartley Controversy also.
By the way, I am mildly short and will add till 5944NS, if at all it goes there. After that I will cover all shorts. |
I have seen the scanned version of his book (original), Vinay....it is also available in Google Books if you want to check it...in that book, he uses the fractions such as 1/3 or 2/3 only to mention prices....not to mention retracements...
I'm much more bullish about Nifty than I was some 2 weeks ago, or even a few days ago, Vinay...earlier, I was thinking about the market going down as low as the election result day gap...but now, I don't expect that...I see the market testing 5330-5250 range, which is reasonable, if there is any correction...I doubt if Nifty will go down below 4950-4900 levels....I'll give it a small probability....but if we break below 4900 levels, then I'll be forced to re-assess the situation.....but as of now, I'm expecting the range 5330-5250 range on the down....
BUT first of all "at least we should start correcting".... ....with this kinda liquidity flow, I doubt I'll ever see any correction...hahaha...just kiddin.. . |
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skd2012
Yellow Belt
Joined: 03 Oct 2012
Posts: 948
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| Post: #60 Posted: Sun Dec 02, 2012 9:02 am Post subject: |
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| Reverse from 5900-6000 spot range or blow off to 6600 odd? Both possibilities are present I guess. |
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