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Nifty View - December |
psalm
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Joined: 12 Nov 2011
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Post: #586  Posted: Wed Dec 12, 2012 3:16 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | tere mu me karela, sam. Don't tell me you like it. 
But yes it's possible though I think the bottom may just be over. I am still prepared for 5825 mentally. |
If the market closes again below 5900 levels, I'll suggest you to hedge your LONG positions, if any...cos, in that case, there could be weakness in the morning itself...that's what I feel....but its still early to say....15 minutes more... hmn... |
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psalm
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| Post: #587 Posted: Wed Dec 12, 2012 3:19 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | psalm wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | apka wrote: | man its so confusing almost 50 points premium now just like in march feb 2012.
spot is -12 and fut is +2 |
what's your problem? |
The problem is that he is SHORT and expects the market to go down (like me).....he has his own reason for that....but the things he see in the market are not that bearish...that's y he is confused....am I correct Apka??.. |
correct sam. technically on charts 5825 should come, spot is breaking lows in bits. bank nifty is still holding (cuz of US fed as u said), DAX is going up and nifty fut for the moment has added good 15 lakh shares in OI today while keeping premium higher. 20ema is coverging with 50ema for nifty and majors like sbi... movement is about to come this week only. so, confusing. |
Apka, Dax has resistance around 5600-5620 today....so, nothing much is happening there....I don't expect much from Europe today, as they'll be waitin for the FOMC statement....so, expect the reaction only tomorrow in Europe... |
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apka
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| Post: #588 Posted: Wed Dec 12, 2012 3:22 pm Post subject: |
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yes sam, on monthly chart also dax has resistence here abouts.
we touched 5945, but closed below, went past it twice, but closed both times below it, been making red candles and big doji last 4-5 days... as per chart i still want to hold short. the premium is also confusing because 6000ce has added in total 1.1 cr shares in OI... quite much for 2nd week of the series. out of the money calls and puts both are adding good OI. and in the money calls are shedding OI. |
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skd2012
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Joined: 03 Oct 2012
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| Post: #589 Posted: Wed Dec 12, 2012 3:22 pm Post subject: |
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| I think it will decide and give the directional move tomorrow on wards. Till then light or hold nothing |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
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| Post: #590 Posted: Wed Dec 12, 2012 3:22 pm Post subject: |
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| apka, market is dicey and it's best to hedge e.g. 5900PE/6000CE for Dec till 5965/5825 is taken out. |
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psalm
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| Post: #591 Posted: Wed Dec 12, 2012 3:26 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | apka, market is dicey and it's best to hedge e.g. 5900PE/6000CE for Dec till 5965/5825 is taken out. |
Yes, anything is possible....though my bias is more towards a lower target after today's closing.....but again we didn't break below yesterday's low......anyway, it looks like tomorrow will be an eventful one....let's wait and see...  |
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vinay28
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| Post: #592 Posted: Wed Dec 12, 2012 3:28 pm Post subject: |
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| close below 5907NF is crucial for going down |
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psalm
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| Post: #593 Posted: Wed Dec 12, 2012 3:29 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | close below 5907NF is crucial for going down |
Let's see how asia opens tomorrow.... |
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skd2012
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Joined: 03 Oct 2012
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| Post: #594 Posted: Wed Dec 12, 2012 3:55 pm Post subject: |
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| psalm wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | close below 5907NF is crucial for going down |
Let's see how asia opens tomorrow.... |
may be flat....but NF has its own way.... |
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apka
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| Post: #595 Posted: Wed Dec 12, 2012 7:33 pm Post subject: |
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[1] Fut: Nifty fut dec added near 16 lakh shares intraday and at all times the OI kept increasing when nifty was rising. Near to close, selling was seen (longs exiting) and this bought the OI down to 8 lakh shares. It can be assumed longs were added today (8 lakh shares) because the ATP is 5,938.07 and only the last minutes selling made nifty fut fall.
[2] Calls: Most of OI is in 6000ce total being 1.11cr (including 8.5 lakh added today). But it's OI does not convince me that it cannot be breached because it has traded for a price of 45-50+ most days even upto 70. So the ATP is more than the CMP giving a chance to the writers to cover their position and move on to writing more one strike below, i.e., 5900ce. It has added 4 lakh shares and has total OI of 60 lakh shares. And rest of the in the money calls have shed OI.
[3] Puts: Most OI lies in 5800pe @ 83 lakh shares including 5 lakh shares added today. In the money 5900pe has added 3 lakh shares EOD total being 60 lakh shares. But this strike has seen contracts traded more than 5 lakh shares. So lot of indecisiveness there in 5900pe. Even 6000pe has added 1.65 lakh shares but with contracts traded 1.77 lakh shares. It just indicates after writing them initially during the day some of the shorts in puts have been covered hence contracts traded exceed the OI added. But this seemed like long covering because EOD 5900pe saw negative net change despite nifty closing -10 and fut closing -3. So the put writers didnt shake hands much.
Next couple of days would suggest what is being build up for next week. |
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vinay28
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| Post: #596 Posted: Wed Dec 12, 2012 7:51 pm Post subject: |
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| thanks apka. But if 6000ce writers cover their positions i.e. if they are forced to do so, they will shift to 6100ce and not 5900ce? |
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apka
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| Post: #597 Posted: Wed Dec 12, 2012 8:02 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | thanks apka. But if 6000ce writers cover their positions i.e. if they are forced to do so, they will shift to 6100ce and not 5900ce? |
yes correct vinay.. that is what should happen. |
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vinay28
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| Post: #598 Posted: Wed Dec 12, 2012 8:51 pm Post subject: |
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| apka, today's candle is again an inside bar. |
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apka
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| Post: #599 Posted: Wed Dec 12, 2012 9:10 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | apka, today's candle is again an inside bar. |
yeh.
mixed feelings though cuz it has closed below 5890 but bank nifty took exact support near 12270 and closed above 12300. |
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apka
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| Post: #600 Posted: Wed Dec 12, 2012 9:11 pm Post subject: |
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AIG sale has completed and HSBC to pay penalty for money laundery charges settlement.
Does it fill a void in the market or creates one ? |
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