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Nifty View - December |
vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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Post: #61  Posted: Sun Dec 02, 2012 5:27 pm Post subject: |
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sam, I feel no global issues will take it down to pre-election levels except in case of (a) total failure of petro dollar or (b) prolonged war. Market will go down when least expected and when everyone is bullish. Liquidity is so massive that it will eat up SLs at all levels befote tanking, I feel, 21%.
I just heard recently that most of FII money is getting diverted to long only funds. So ETFs can only cause that much damage. |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #62 Posted: Sun Dec 02, 2012 7:30 pm Post subject: |
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| sw_das wrote: | Reverse from 5900-6000 spot range or blow off to 6600 odd? Both possibilities are present I guess.  |
Chances for both are there, though I see significant resistance in the range 6150-6200 range, if the market decides to move up......another chance is that we'll correct slightly by around 300 or 400 points and then could just take off without any warning...but after adding and subtracting, I feel that a correction is inevitable....Anyway, let's wait and see...  |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #63 Posted: Sun Dec 02, 2012 7:34 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | sam, I feel no global issues will take it down to pre-election levels except in case of (a) total failure of petro dollar or (b) prolonged war. Market will go down when least expected and when everyone is bullish. Liquidity is so massive that it will eat up SLs at all levels befote tanking, I feel, 21%.
I just heard recently that most of FII money is getting diverted to long only funds. So ETFs can only cause that much damage. |
Yes, Vinay....visiting that gap looks extremely unlikely in the present scenario....by the way, panic selling is an uncontrollable emotion.... think about another lehman like collapse in the Europe and the U.S....there will be huge liquidation....but that kinda event also look less probable at this point of time....So, reasonable corrections from here can be used for buying long term, I feel..... |
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skd2012
Yellow Belt
Joined: 03 Oct 2012
Posts: 948
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| Post: #64 Posted: Sun Dec 02, 2012 8:49 pm Post subject: |
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| psalm wrote: | | sw_das wrote: | | Reverse from 5900-6000 spot range or blow off to 6600 odd? Both possibilities are present I guess. |
Chances for both are there, though I see significant resistance in the range 6150-6200 range, if the market decides to move up......another chance is that we'll correct slightly by around 300 or 400 points and then could just take off without any warning...but after adding and subtracting, I feel that a correction is inevitable....Anyway, let's wait and see... |
My thinking is that chances are more that we would not cross 6000 spot and can see distribution in dec series. Correction would come later series. Above 6000, new high is a distinct possibility. |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #65 Posted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 9:20 am Post subject: |
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| Market is trading around 5895 now...it could face significant resistance in the range 5900-5920, I feel....Anyway, let's wait and see how the market behaves around those levels... |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #66 Posted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 9:27 am Post subject: |
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| Looking at the way, the rupee is behaving I have a feeling that a short term top may be at place (friday's top).....Dollar index is pretty down, but that is not showing in Rupee which should be a concern for rupee bulls now...anyway, let's wait and see what happens in the next couple of days... |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #67 Posted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 9:32 am Post subject: |
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| Bought a few 5800 "JANUARY" PUTs around 68 now.... |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #68 Posted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 9:35 am Post subject: |
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| BankNifty is showing relative weakness compared to Nifty.... |
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stevenmat
White Belt
Joined: 27 Dec 2011
Posts: 478
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| Post: #69 Posted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 10:07 am Post subject: |
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| psalm wrote: | | Bought a few 5800 "JANUARY" PUTs around 68 now.... |
January puts? no. of days in dec not enough? |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #70 Posted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 10:14 am Post subject: |
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| stevenmat wrote: | | psalm wrote: | | Bought a few 5800 "JANUARY" PUTs around 68 now.... |
January puts? no. of days in dec not enough? |
Some targets for Nifty has a period of upto 2 months...that's why bought January PUTs.....By the way, I feel that all the PUTs are trading pretty cheap...it could be because either the market is pretty bullish or it is complacent....only time will tell if it was bullish or complacent... |
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SP50
Brown Belt
Joined: 26 Nov 2010
Posts: 1615
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| Post: #71 Posted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 11:12 am Post subject: |
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| psalm wrote: | | stevenmat wrote: | | psalm wrote: | | Bought a few 5800 "JANUARY" PUTs around 68 now.... |
January puts? no. of days in dec not enough? |
Some targets for Nifty has a period of upto 2 months...that's why bought January PUTs.....By the way, I feel that all the PUTs are trading pretty cheap...it could be because either the market is pretty bullish or it is complacent....only time will tell if it was bullish or complacent... |
Jan puts r safe bet than Dec because of time horizon,  |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #72 Posted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 11:18 am Post subject: |
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| taxmann50 wrote: | | psalm wrote: | | stevenmat wrote: | | psalm wrote: | | Bought a few 5800 "JANUARY" PUTs around 68 now.... |
January puts? no. of days in dec not enough? |
Some targets for Nifty has a period of upto 2 months...that's why bought January PUTs.....By the way, I feel that all the PUTs are trading pretty cheap...it could be because either the market is pretty bullish or it is complacent....only time will tell if it was bullish or complacent... |
Jan puts r safe bet than Dec because of time horizon, |
Its cheap too....but only god knows if its trap or not.... |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #73 Posted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 11:20 am Post subject: |
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| USD/INR daily chart....an IHNS in the making???...early days though....will have to wait for a day or two for some more clues, I feel....let's see... |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #74 Posted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 12:25 pm Post subject: |
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| Hang Seng is under some pressure now.... trading at the lows of the day..... |
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SP50
Brown Belt
Joined: 26 Nov 2010
Posts: 1615
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| Post: #75 Posted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 1:13 pm Post subject: |
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| psalm wrote: | | Hang Seng is under some pressure now.... trading at the lows of the day..... |
Samji this afternoon seems going to be volatile. market making a recovery is suprising  |
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