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Nifty View - December |
vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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Post: #736  Posted: Fri Dec 14, 2012 8:24 pm Post subject: |
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| pkholla wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | the arrogant montek |
M S Ahluwalia should remember the notorious English picture "The Full Monty"! |
Eek! Hirsute!  |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #737 Posted: Sat Dec 15, 2012 5:54 pm Post subject: |
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| 5838 is a reversal level. Friday's low was 5839.20. Dec low, as of now, was 5839.05 on 6th. That's why I feel bottom may be over, at least on closing basis. Even then, one should be prepared for 5825/5806/5780 as possible lower levels. If my feeling that 6150 is possible by/before expiry is correct, it must happen quickly i.e. by 18th, as time is too short for a 380 point rise (assuming it goes to 5780). Also, I feel astrologically, period may be better from 19th. |
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debnathnilanjan
White Belt
Joined: 30 Jan 2010
Posts: 12
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| Post: #738 Posted: Sat Dec 15, 2012 10:18 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | 5838 is a reversal level. Friday's low was 5839.20. Dec low, as of now, was 5839.05 on 6th. That's why I feel bottom may be over, at least on closing basis. Even then, one should be prepared for 5825/5806/5780 as possible lower levels. If my feeling that 6150 is possible by/before expiry is correct, it must happen quickly i.e. by 18th, as time is too short for a 380 point rise (assuming it goes to 5780). Also, I feel astrologically, period may be better from 19th. |
agreed  |
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skd2012
Yellow Belt
Joined: 03 Oct 2012
Posts: 948
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| Post: #739 Posted: Sun Dec 16, 2012 7:53 pm Post subject: |
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Next week it seems that we are setup for up move. 6030 spot is visible (some resistance at 5950-55 spot around). But have to rethink if we go below 5965 NF. It's not very far either. Are we going to cross 6000 spot in this up move? Once I thought we may finish th up move between 5900-6000 spot range.  |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #740 Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 7:23 am Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | SAM your views on INR please |
I'm still very much bearish on Rupee, Apka. After looking at the charts, I have a feeling that Rupee is heading for a target of 58.9 from current levels. No idea how long it will take. Must be a few weeks or max a few months away. But ultimately, I see the currency testing 61.8-65.3 range. The USD/INR pair will have momentum on its side if it starts trading above 54.8-55.2 levels, which is its immediate resistance. The pair now has huge support in the range 54-53.5 on a closing basis. I believe that the pair already has tested that support and bounced back without much difficulty. One factor that will be influencing movements the immediate future will be tomorrow's RBI policy. So, let's wait and see if tomorrow's policy announcement will give some direction.  |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #741 Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 7:24 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | 5838 is a reversal level. Friday's low was 5839.20. Dec low, as of now, was 5839.05 on 6th. That's why I feel bottom may be over, at least on closing basis. Even then, one should be prepared for 5825/5806/5780 as possible lower levels. If my feeling that 6150 is possible by/before expiry is correct, it must happen quickly i.e. by 18th, as time is too short for a 380 point rise (assuming it goes to 5780). Also, I feel astrologically, period may be better from 19th. |
5200 levels in January 2013......that is 10% correction from current levels... |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #742 Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 8:04 am Post subject: |
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Not impossible sam nor is 10% up by Jan as well. You will be surprised to know option prices for next 3 months e.g.
Jan - 6500ce - 3.70, 5200pe - 3.60
Feb - 6500ce - 15, 5400pe - 15.75
Mar - 6500ce - 35, 5000pe - 12.50
Note that 6500ce is one of the highest OI for the 3 months and also the highest CE for which rates are available. But either rates are not even available for PEs lower than those given above or OI is too low to be significant. So, at lower levels, it shows confusion amongst traders. |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #743 Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 8:28 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | Not impossible sam nor is 10% up by Jan as well. You will be surprised to know option prices for next 3 months e.g.
Jan - 6500ce - 3.70, 5200pe - 3.60
Feb - 6500ce - 15, 5400pe - 15.75
Mar - 6500ce - 35, 5000pe - 12.50
Note that 6500ce is one of the highest OI for the 3 months and also the highest CE for which rates are available. But either rates are not even available for PEs lower than those given above or OI is too low to be significant. So, at lower levels, it shows confusion amongst traders. |
Though my target of 5200 levels was a light-hearted one, I see good chance for the market to test those levels Vinay....at the same time, it is a dangerous time as well; for a bear...cos, almost all the global markets (except the U.S) are around their LONG TERM resistances...a breakout in the next few days could give enormous money. For example, Nikkei if started to sustain above 9900 levels or psychologically above 10000 levels, there is very good chance for another 25 to 30% (may be much more). But that itself offers a lot challenges. Is the global economy capable of justifying such a huge upside in the equity markets??..If not there is equal chance for Nikkei to correct another 25% from here in the long term. I'm on the bearish side because the risk-reward clearly favours a bearish trade.....Anyway, let's wait and see where the market will be by around 15th of Jan....by every chance, I have a feeling that the next 4 to 6 weeks are gonna be painful for the bulls....  |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #744 Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 8:42 am Post subject: |
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| PCR up at 1.07, not good |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #745 Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 11:55 am Post subject: |
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| Haven't seen a nifty intraday chart like this for a long long time. 1min tf |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #746 Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 12:03 pm Post subject: |
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| Now I feel there is something wrong with the chart. At no time have I seen a level of 5879 in last over one hour. |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #747 Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 12:03 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | Haven't seen a nifty intraday chart like this for a long long time. 1min tf |
hehe, whats it mean |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #748 Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 12:05 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | Now I feel there is something wrong with the chart. At no time have I seen a level of 5879 in last over one hour. |
spot went to 5886 vinay... it was near 5880 and above for long time... |
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skd2012
Yellow Belt
Joined: 03 Oct 2012
Posts: 948
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| Post: #749 Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 12:06 pm Post subject: |
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| So what is expected by tomorrow 5800 or 5970 NF? |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #750 Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 12:55 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | Now I feel there is something wrong with the chart. At no time have I seen a level of 5879 in last over one hour. |
spot went to 5886 vinay... it was near 5880 and above for long time... |
that was before 10.25 apka. but since then every candle is showing about 5879.60 as high. |
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