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Nifty View - February Series 2014 |
vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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amitagg Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013 Posts: 4559
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Post: #32 Posted: Wed Feb 05, 2014 12:57 pm Post subject: |
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vinay28 wrote: | apka wrote: | yesterday VIX reversed from 19.82.. today crossed it. Next resistance comes near 20.50 then 22.50. |
vix is showing topping tails and -ve div |
what does it imply |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #33 Posted: Wed Feb 05, 2014 1:18 pm Post subject: |
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amitagg wrote: | vinay28 wrote: | apka wrote: | yesterday VIX reversed from 19.82.. today crossed it. Next resistance comes near 20.50 then 22.50. |
vix is showing topping tails and -ve div |
what does it imply |
it means vix may fall and if it does, nifty should go up |
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apka Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011 Posts: 6137
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Post: #34 Posted: Thu Feb 06, 2014 10:36 am Post subject: |
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VIX above 20 again..
Bank Nifty fell by 200+ and Nifty 60+ points... what a chop with volumes. |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #35 Posted: Thu Feb 06, 2014 11:30 am Post subject: |
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A Marc Faber report came on equity which indicated a 20% correction. Report was based on increased US Govt borrowing. Five years ago, 1 $ debt gave 1 $ GDP while today 4$ debt gives 1$ GDP. Marc is respected because he was the only one who predicted 2008 crash. 8.50 lac NF were trade between 10.25 and 10.28 (1/3rd vol of the day). 15 lac NF were sold on sgx. Knee jerk reaction IMHO since Marc is also bullish mainly on India. Of course, our market will see some collateral damage for some time if that happens. |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #36 Posted: Thu Feb 06, 2014 12:57 pm Post subject: |
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I eel Nifty is now in a no trade zone positionally. However, if you are long/short, cover if nifty seems to be closing below/above 6000NS. |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #37 Posted: Thu Feb 06, 2014 3:12 pm Post subject: |
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I feel banknifty is worth a buy |
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saumya12 Brown Belt
Joined: 21 Dec 2011 Posts: 1509
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Post: #38 Posted: Thu Feb 06, 2014 8:43 pm Post subject: |
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NF Rising Wedge 5 min tf 6.2.14 |
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saumya12 Brown Belt
Joined: 21 Dec 2011 Posts: 1509
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Post: #39 Posted: Thu Feb 06, 2014 8:44 pm Post subject: |
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In BNF a Symmetrical Triangle has formed in 1 min tf
Either breakout or breakdown |
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saumya12 Brown Belt
Joined: 21 Dec 2011 Posts: 1509
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Post: #40 Posted: Thu Feb 06, 2014 9:13 pm Post subject: |
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SGX Nifty (Feb 6) 6,093.50 +38.50 +0.63% |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #41 Posted: Sat Feb 08, 2014 4:40 pm Post subject: |
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While 6090/6121 are two nearer gaps on the upper side, which could get filled in this upmove, the important gap for bulls is at about 6267 (close on Friday, 24/01), which happened when nifty opened gap down at 6186 on Monday, 27/01.
NOTE that this is reportedly the first such weekly gap since 21/01/08. Though the gap was too small in nifty, it was about 95 points in BSE sensex. In Jan '08, nifty fell sharply from 8/1 and then recovered a lot but could not fill the gap and rest is history. If the gap at 6267 doesn't get filled now, then as per one theory, we could see 25-30% fall from highs i.e. about 4800/4500. However, IMHO, even filling of the gap at 6267 is not enough. Nifty has to make a new high and hold it for some time for a further sizeable upmove. Some hints given by nifty apart from a new high in Dec are new all time high closes on daily/weekly/monthly/quarterly charts.
Also, note that there are gaps on the lower side at about 5780, 5680, 5593, 5448, 5285, 5238, 5100, 5043, 4997, 4863, 4848, 4743, 4637 and 4544 over the last about 4 years. If we are to believe in another theory, which says that all gaps get filled, these levels should come some day no matter how high the nifty goes. And it doesn't include the infamous gap after May 2009 election results, though again not in nifty but in sensex and perhaps also NF.
Here's an altogether different but interesting fact though. Dollar value of nifty today is 37% below that in Jan '08 i.e. equivalent to about 4000. |
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rk_a2003 Black Belt
Joined: 21 Jan 2010 Posts: 2734
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Post: #42 Posted: Sat Feb 08, 2014 5:03 pm Post subject: |
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....."Dollar value of nifty today is 37% below that in Jan '08 i.e. equivalent to about 4000".
Therefore those gaps were already filled technically if not physically. |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #43 Posted: Sat Feb 08, 2014 7:17 pm Post subject: |
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rk_a2003 wrote: | ....."Dollar value of nifty today is 37% below that in Jan '08 i.e. equivalent to about 4000".
Therefore those gaps were already filled technically if not physically. |
rk, if you recall, we have been discussing $-INR aspect since, I think, late 2011 after which nifty went to 45xx when INR went to 53. So, you forgot to convert those gaps according to INR rate at the time of the gap. |
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apka Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011 Posts: 6137
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Post: #44 Posted: Sat Feb 08, 2014 8:56 pm Post subject: |
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need Defty charts |
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roomyd White Belt
Joined: 22 Apr 2011 Posts: 2
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Post: #45 Posted: Sun Feb 09, 2014 11:49 am Post subject: can someone pls attach snapshot of nifty IV vs HV on 7th Feb |
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I wanted to see the snapshot of nifty Implied volatility vs Historical volatility for 7th Feb so can someone pls send me the same. Thanks |
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