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Nifty View February |
vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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Post: #1066  Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2013 3:35 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | march 5800pe touched 137+  ... also traded 5700pe 6 -> 20 |
great job apka |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #1067 Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2013 3:59 pm Post subject: |
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| The daily candle is a bearish engulfing to last two days' candles and can prove be a Last Engulfing Bottom, a likely reversal sign, if tmrw closes above today's close. |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #1068 Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2013 4:16 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | The daily candle is a bearish engulfing to last two days' candles and can prove be a Last Engulfing Bottom, a likely reversal sign, if tmrw closes above today's close. |
this is a technical term? i want to know more if u can share on it. |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #1069 Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2013 4:38 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | The daily candle is a bearish engulfing to last two days' candles and can prove be a Last Engulfing Bottom, a likely reversal sign, if tmrw closes above today's close. |
this is a technical term? i want to know more if u can share on it. |
This link also gives success ratio
http://www.thepatternsite.com/LastEngulfBottom.html
But on the above subject of candle, tmrw has to open gap up and close above today's close, preferably also +ve (green candle) to give first confirmation. Next confirmation is close above today's open.
As per neo-wave theory, nifty MUST go to 5548 in next three days (and not 4) to confirm a partcular trend that starts a 12 moth bear market.
By the way, chiddu is hands in glove with FIIs. First he tells them "I am going to make some comments in budget which I will clarify later". FIIs then sell in morning and buy at bottom. Then he clarifies in the evening that "your fears are unfounded" - this may be a figment of my imagination but next week will tell us.
Last edited by vinay28 on Thu Feb 28, 2013 5:43 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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skd2012
Yellow Belt
Joined: 03 Oct 2012
Posts: 948
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| Post: #1070 Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2013 4:40 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | vix has crashed |
Not sure why it crashed. It should have been up? there were lot of panic!! |
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rk_a2003
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Joined: 21 Jan 2010
Posts: 2734
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| Post: #1071 Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2013 5:09 pm Post subject: |
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| sw_das wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | vix has crashed |
Not sure why it crashed. It should have been up? there were lot of panic!! |
Where is Volatality?.It's one directional move.  |
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SwingTrader
Site Admin
Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 2903
Location: Hyderabad, India
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| Post: #1072 Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2013 5:26 pm Post subject: |
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| sw_das wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | vix has crashed |
Not sure why it crashed. It should have been up? there were lot of panic!! |
VIX crash is perfectly normal. The implied volatility was bid up only for the budget event. This happens for most so called important events, once the event has passed the high implied volatilities can't be justified and it just goes back to normal levels. Actually the implied volatilities start going down before the event itself.
Option writers have lot of fun around such events.
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Srikanth Kurdukar
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #1073 Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2013 5:45 pm Post subject: |
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right ST, only one way move will dump vix.
on your market sentiment or the other thread ST, I would still request you to plot product pcr*vix against nifty if possible, at least for academic interest. Only problem is pcr value given by nse website doesn't contain total OI for all the months and for all the levels, which is required.
Apka, posted it today and it was correct but I don't know where he got it from. I get it from my broker. |
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SwingTrader
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Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 2903
Location: Hyderabad, India
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| Post: #1074 Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2013 6:13 pm Post subject: |
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Vinay,
OK, will see if I can prepare pcr/vix/nifty chart. The pcr you want to see is OI based (or vol based)? Also, should pcr be only for nifty options or index options or index+stock options based?
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Srikanth Kurdukar
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skd2012
Yellow Belt
Joined: 03 Oct 2012
Posts: 948
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| Post: #1075 Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2013 7:01 pm Post subject: |
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| SwingTrader wrote: | | sw_das wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | vix has crashed |
Not sure why it crashed. It should have been up? there were lot of panic!! |
VIX crash is perfectly normal. The implied volatility was bid up only for the budget event. This happens for most so called important events, once the event has passed the high implied volatilities can't be justified and it just goes back to normal levels. Actually the implied volatilities start going down before the event itself.
Option writers have lot of fun around such events. |
OK. Thanks! So VIX depends on IV of options? |
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skd2012
Yellow Belt
Joined: 03 Oct 2012
Posts: 948
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| Post: #1076 Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2013 7:06 pm Post subject: |
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| rk_a2003 wrote: | | sw_das wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | vix has crashed |
Not sure why it crashed. It should have been up? there were lot of panic!! |
Where is Volatality?.It's one directional move. |
Not sure what you saw, I saw most volatile day of trading in last 3-4 months. 20 points fall, 20 points up move, 90 points fall, 60 points upmove, 90 points fall, 40 points upmove, then 90 points fall again. Is it not most volatile in recent time?
I am not sure mathematical formula of VIX, but was surprised it fell today based on above data. If it is based on option pricing then it explains as March option lost value today. |
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SwingTrader
Site Admin
Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 2903
Location: Hyderabad, India
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| Post: #1077 Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2013 7:28 pm Post subject: |
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sw_das,
Yes, VIX is based on NIFTY options prices. It is basically a sort of proxy for average implied volatility of NF options.
See more details here : http://www.nseindia.com/content/press/prs_vix.htm
What happened today is very normal and very much on expected lines. NF implied volatility was bid up by options writers since the start of Feb expiry for today's event. Once the suspense around the event wears off volatility just returns to normal (even though price moved down). ATM options IV had slowly increased to around 25-30% (until 1-2 days ago), it is now back to around 14% today (back to normal levels). This is why vix crashed.
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Srikanth Kurdukar
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #1078 Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2013 7:47 pm Post subject: |
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| thanks ST, I was not clear of this earlier. now i know. |
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masa
White Belt
Joined: 06 Jan 2007
Posts: 162
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| Post: #1079 Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2013 8:02 pm Post subject: |
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Guys....thanks.....such type rich discussion helps like me. I read only chart and do not focused on all other issues.
At the end I bought 5800 Mar Call. Pl your views. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #1080 Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2013 8:18 pm Post subject: |
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ST, pcr that I want is for nifty options for all open contracts for all months, this and next year(s) since we are drawing against nifty. Here's a link that may help
[CONTENT REMOVED BY ADMIN] |
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