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Nifty View February |
skd2012
Yellow Belt
Joined: 03 Oct 2012
Posts: 948
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Post: #1081  Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2013 8:19 pm Post subject: |
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| SwingTrader wrote: | sw_das,
Yes, VIX is based on NIFTY options prices. It is basically a sort of proxy for average implied volatility of NF options.
See more details here : http://www.nseindia.com/content/press/prs_vix.htm
What happened today is very normal and very much on expected lines. NF implied volatility was bid up by options writers since the start of Feb expiry for today's event. Once the suspense around the event wears off volatility just returns to normal (even though price moved down). ATM options IV had slowly increased to around 25-30% (until 1-2 days ago), it is now back to around 14% today (back to normal levels). This is why vix crashed. |
Thank you. Then it is justified. Option pricing was very expensive and destruction happened today. |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #1082 Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2013 11:37 pm Post subject: |
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| masa wrote: | Guys....thanks.....such type rich discussion helps like me. I read only chart and do not focused on all other issues.
At the end I bought 5800 Mar Call. Pl your views. |
march fut was trading near 5750 at close. Dont know how premium will be tomm but spot will definate rise. 5700pe added 18 lakh shares n total OI 66 lacs. So expecting retest to 5740 spot. |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #1083 Posted: Thu Feb 28, 2013 11:45 pm Post subject: |
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btw, oct-dec gdp is 4.5%
today udayan from cnbc raised a question after mrkt closed, fm has not given much for growth purpose, indias gdp shrinking, FII are investing for growth, but if earnings dont return to higher side, then to whom will the FII sell these stocks to bought at such higher valuations. These levels are for good earnings, on what basis are FII buying not sure.............
Wording may have been different but the above is the jist. |
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masa
White Belt
Joined: 06 Jan 2007
Posts: 162
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| Post: #1084 Posted: Fri Mar 01, 2013 5:54 am Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | masa wrote: | Guys....thanks.....such type rich discussion helps like me. I read only chart and do not focused on all other issues.
At the end I bought 5800 Mar Call. Pl your views. |
march fut was trading near 5750 at close. Dont know how premium will be tomm but spot will definate rise. 5700pe added 18 lakh shares n total OI 66 lacs. So expecting retest to 5740 spot. |
Thanks apka. Many times my chart reading not bad, but do not remain on my own readings and not enough patience therefore not much getting out of it. What to do. |
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skd2012
Yellow Belt
Joined: 03 Oct 2012
Posts: 948
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| Post: #1085 Posted: Fri Mar 01, 2013 6:36 am Post subject: |
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| masa wrote: | | apka wrote: | | masa wrote: | Guys....thanks.....such type rich discussion helps like me. I read only chart and do not focused on all other issues.
At the end I bought 5800 Mar Call. Pl your views. |
march fut was trading near 5750 at close. Dont know how premium will be tomm but spot will definate rise. 5700pe added 18 lakh shares n total OI 66 lacs. So expecting retest to 5740 spot. |
Thanks apka. Many times my chart reading not bad, but do not remain on my own readings and not enough patience therefore not much getting out of it. What to do. |
Option is very flexible thing. Try to convert to spread or something else when you get a chance. Today 5780 around can be tested I feel. But bad GDP number and Dow is expected to correct significantly. So the best nifty will be range bound if not breaking down further (in 1-2 months). If nifty goes to 5600, then try with bullish spread for small return. |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #1086 Posted: Fri Mar 01, 2013 6:39 am Post subject: |
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| masa wrote: | | apka wrote: | | masa wrote: | Guys....thanks.....such type rich discussion helps like me. I read only chart and do not focused on all other issues.
At the end I bought 5800 Mar Call. Pl your views. |
march fut was trading near 5750 at close. Dont know how premium will be tomm but spot will definate rise. 5700pe added 18 lakh shares n total OI 66 lacs. So expecting retest to 5740 spot. |
Thanks apka. Many times my chart reading not bad, but do not remain on my own readings and not enough patience therefore not much getting out of it. What to do. |
i have a similar problem. I have missed out on some trgts because of lack of patience. This time i am forcing myself to hold 5800pe.
Pcr dropped to 0.64. This is like having pcr of 1.35 and market rallying last year. Now call writers are running the trend. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #1087 Posted: Fri Mar 01, 2013 8:07 am Post subject: |
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| considering prevailing VIX, range for March is 5474-5912. |
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rk_a2003
Black Belt
Joined: 21 Jan 2010
Posts: 2734
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| Post: #1088 Posted: Fri Mar 01, 2013 8:46 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | considering prevailing VIX, range for March is 5474-5912. |
Yes, March range appears to be 5500-5900 broadly. |
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rsnerella
White Belt
Joined: 30 Jul 2008
Posts: 153
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| Post: #1089 Posted: Fri Mar 01, 2013 8:46 am Post subject: Nifty view - March |
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March month range as per options OI : 5600 - 5900. Any side break should be very cautious and can give a trending move.
February month movement below 5900 gave 200 points.
| rsnerella wrote: | | As per OI data, range of Nifty in February is 5900 - 6300. However once Nifty break either side, trending move emerges. |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #1090 Posted: Fri Mar 01, 2013 8:54 am Post subject: |
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| Vinay, how do you calculate the range using VIX? |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #1091 Posted: Fri Mar 01, 2013 9:08 am Post subject: |
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| gap up in nifty, bank nifty and cnx it. |
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masa
White Belt
Joined: 06 Jan 2007
Posts: 162
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| Post: #1092 Posted: Fri Mar 01, 2013 9:09 am Post subject: |
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| sw_das wrote: | | masa wrote: | | apka wrote: | | masa wrote: | Guys....thanks.....such type rich discussion helps like me. I read only chart and do not focused on all other issues.
At the end I bought 5800 Mar Call. Pl your views. |
march fut was trading near 5750 at close. Dont know how premium will be tomm but spot will definate rise. 5700pe added 18 lakh shares n total OI 66 lacs. So expecting retest to 5740 spot. |
Thanks apka. Many times my chart reading not bad, but do not remain on my own readings and not enough patience therefore not much getting out of it. What to do. |
Option is very flexible thing. Try to convert to spread or something else when you get a chance. Today 5780 around can be tested I feel. But bad GDP number and Dow is expected to correct significantly. So the best nifty will be range bound if not breaking down further (in 1-2 months). If nifty goes to 5600, then try with bullish spread for small return. |
Thanks apka
Thanks sw_das
sw_das....could you explain in deep about bullish spread. I could not have that much margin for shorting options. |
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masa
White Belt
Joined: 06 Jan 2007
Posts: 162
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| Post: #1093 Posted: Fri Mar 01, 2013 9:11 am Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | gap up in nifty, bank nifty and cnx it. |
apka sgx nifty -38 point. |
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skd2012
Yellow Belt
Joined: 03 Oct 2012
Posts: 948
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| Post: #1094 Posted: Fri Mar 01, 2013 9:13 am Post subject: |
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| masa wrote: | | sw_das wrote: | | masa wrote: | | apka wrote: | | masa wrote: | Guys....thanks.....such type rich discussion helps like me. I read only chart and do not focused on all other issues.
At the end I bought 5800 Mar Call. Pl your views. |
march fut was trading near 5750 at close. Dont know how premium will be tomm but spot will definate rise. 5700pe added 18 lakh shares n total OI 66 lacs. So expecting retest to 5740 spot. |
Thanks apka. Many times my chart reading not bad, but do not remain on my own readings and not enough patience therefore not much getting out of it. What to do. |
Option is very flexible thing. Try to convert to spread or something else when you get a chance. Today 5780 around can be tested I feel. But bad GDP number and Dow is expected to correct significantly. So the best nifty will be range bound if not breaking down further (in 1-2 months). If nifty goes to 5600, then try with bullish spread for small return. |
Thanks apka
Thanks sw_das
sw_das....could you explain in deep about bullish spread. I could not have that much margin for shorting options. |
Say market goes to 5600, then buy 6500 call and sell 5700 call. it will protect you for down side move and will give you exit opportunity if not profit. There is also ratio spread, like buy 5600 call and sell double 5800 call. etc. Yes margin is needed high. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #1095 Posted: Fri Mar 01, 2013 9:15 am Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | Vinay, how do you calculate the range using VIX? |
apka, I had given the formula last month. It's simple and is monthly close plus/minus sq rt (vix) %. Two -WWs give 5507 and 5440 while 200sma is at about 5540 and nov low was 5548, which is in a zone important since 2010. |
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