iCharts Discussions

psalm · Black Belt Joined: 12 Nov 2011 Posts: 5368

Most of the Asian markets are closed due to regional holidays. Markets in China and Brazil (except friday) will be closed for the whole week. Hang seng will be closed for most part of the week. So, expect some subdued trading in our markets until Europe opens, I feel. By the way, we've had a serious selling on friday in our markets after breaking certain technical levels on the way down. But I had mentioned in my last post that day itself that the market is looking slightly over-sold and that the situation shows a lot of similarities with the period towards the 3rd week of November. Similarly many stocks are displaying extreme over-sold readings. On an optimistic note, I see significant support around the range 5860-5850. So, after considering all the factors, I have decided to exit most of my SHORTs, which are remaining, in the next 2 days (today and tomorrow) on dips towards 5860 or so. I have also plans to initiate a few LONGs in the next 2 days, expecting some buying towards the end of the month. Another logic behind this thought is that Railway budget (26th Feb) and Union Budgets (28th Feb) are scheduled towards the end of the month (Union budget is scheduled exactly on the expiry day this month). Anyway, as long as the market closes below 6070 or so on a "WEEKLY CLOSING" basis, the short-term trend will still remain down. But I wont be surprised to see the market testing the range 6134-6157 area on an intraday basis in the next 2 or 3 weeks. A few PSU biggies will be announcing the result this week, notably SBI and ONGC. Technically, I'm expecting a bounce-back in SBI and ONGC in the next few days. That means there COULD be some positive surprises regarding their results. I have plans to cover the shorts (has covered one lot already in SBI last week) and even go LONG in them. Major results that will be announced this week are as follows:

SBI
ONGC
BPCL
IOC
GAIL
Coal India
Power Grid Corp
LIC Housing Fin
SAIL

Jindal Steel
Tata Steel
Tata Motors
Tata Power
Jaiprakash Asso
DLF
Dr Reddys Labs

NOTE: The view I have mentioned here is a general one for the next 2 to 3 weeks. The slightly positive outlook I have given here doesn't mean that the outlook for the index has changed suddenly. The fact is that I have become a bit opportunistic, after considering all the factors for the next few weeks. So, if this hypothesis turns out to be good, then today and tomrrow will be good opportunities to start looking for LONGs in the market. Dips to 5860 (if any) can be used to cover the SHORTs or initiate fresh LONGs, I feel. Let's wait and see how the trade pans out in th next 2 or 3 weeks.

Regards,

SAM