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Nifty View February
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Author Nifty View February
psalm
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Post: #316   PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 10:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
apka wrote:
VIX rising while nifty drifting down... from last week.


It will be interesting to see if it is able to break above 16.25-16.5 area (especially around 16.25).....As long as it is below that, I don't see any problem in it going up....But above 16.25 or so, one needs to be cautious....cos, in that case, there is chance of some spikes....VIX going up means something higher risks for going LONG....BUT as of now, its fine....so, let's wait and see what happens to VIX in the next few days or so..... Smile
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skd2012
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Post: #317   PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 11:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
If we go by chart, it is clear down trend and experts say market is more likely to run with the trend.

But for intrady, there is a every possibility that we can give a bounce today.

But premiums are high and it mostly brings trouble for longs. Smile
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skd2012
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Post: #318   PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 11:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
If we see SBI monthly chart, we will find it as range bound stock. 2500 area is resistance and 1800-2000 band works as support. it is oscillating between this range. So unless there is some extraordinary results, it is likely to visit 1800-2000 band again (not immediately).
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psalm
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Post: #319   PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 11:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
sw_das wrote:
If we see SBI monthly chart, we will find it as range bound stock. 2500 area is resistance and 1800-2000 band works as support. it is oscillating between this range. So unless there is some extraordinary results, it is likely to visit 1800-2000 band again (not immediately).


the situation wont change overnight, for sure....but 1800 and 2500 is a very big range, sw_das.... you can TRADE it....
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apka
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Post: #320   PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 11:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
interesting thing is friday 5900pe high was 76.

today high is 71.60 despite new low by nifty spot, fut has held its low and so has bank nifty (of friday) and has SBIN.

apart from that 5900pe is still adding OI slowly. writers are not covering their positions. one upside looks sure more or less. maybe till where from nifty fut fell 5940.
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skd2012
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Post: #321   PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 11:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
ICICI bank is in similar situation. 1200 works as resistance if we see monthly chart.

NIFTY if we see bigger picture 6000 range will show as resistance and this is third time we are trying reverse from there.

I do not mean that we can not break out. But I see those in my eyes.

Some stocks are in clear up trend however.
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skd2012
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Post: #322   PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 11:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
5940-50 NF range is normalization range for me. It will decide and make fresh move from there (up or down). Which is not clear.
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psalm
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Post: #323   PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 11:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
sw_das wrote:
ICICI bank is in similar situation. 1200 works as resistance if we see monthly chart.

NIFTY if we see bigger picture 6000 range will show as resistance and this is third time we are trying reverse from there.

I do not mean that we can not break out. But I see those in my eyes.

Some stocks are in clear up trend however.


If you get Nifty around 5860 or 5870 and then the market goes to 6070 or so, you're getting 200 points (Yes, Entry and Exit are key here)...at the same if there is some manipulation happening around the time of budget or even because of the technical reasons, if the market goes around 6150 or so, you're getting almost 300 points....which is attractive....that's why thought about going LONG....if it was for just 100 or 120 points, I wouldn't have gone for a LONG here....basically, I'm looking for 5200 or so to think about buying for long term....but for trading long, I see an opportunity....that's why suggested to exit the shorts and to go long today and tomorrow....anyway, let's wait and see how this approach works out.... Smile
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skd2012
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Post: #324   PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 11:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
psalm wrote:
sw_das wrote:
ICICI bank is in similar situation. 1200 works as resistance if we see monthly chart.

NIFTY if we see bigger picture 6000 range will show as resistance and this is third time we are trying reverse from there.

I do not mean that we can not break out. But I see those in my eyes.

Some stocks are in clear up trend however.


If you get Nifty around 5860 or 5870 and then the market goes to 6070 or so, you're getting 200 points (Yes, Entry and Exit are key here)...at the same if there is some manipulation happening around the time of budget or even because of the technical reasons, if the market goes around 6150 or so, you're getting almost 300 points....which is attractive....that's why thought about going LONG....if it was for just 100 or 120 points, I wouldn't have gone for a LONG here....basically, I'm looking for 5200 or so to think about buying for long term....but for trading long, I see an opportunity....that's why suggested to exit the shorts and to go long today and tomorrow....anyway, let's wait and see how this approach works out.... Smile


Just discussing this with open mind. These are not for trading. If we see NIFTY monthly chart. possibly it will show 4800-5200 odd range as support. If market does not break out we are likely to visit those range over next a few months.

For trading it is the way market unfolds today and max tomorrow and day after. Who will carry position, which is in loss be it short or long.
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psalm
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Post: #325   PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 12:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
Though the Nifty Spot is in a trading range of around 45 points, the range is just 25 for Nifty Future.....means not much volatile, which is an indication that many traders are not that bearish....will be interesting to see how it reacts if there is further fall from today's low....by the way, Nifty Future did find some resistance around 5930 as mentioned earlier.... Smile
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vinay28
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Post: #326   PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 1:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
I feel 5930NF should be taken out and immediate target is 5940 and then I feel 5960
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apka
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Post: #327   PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 2:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
vinay28 wrote:
I feel 5930NF should be taken out and immediate target is 5940 and then I feel 5960


tomorrow IIP data
thursday 14th - Results: SBI, Tata motors, DLF.... and CPI inflation data

need action soon.
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psalm
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Post: #328   PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 3:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
apka wrote:
vinay28 wrote:
I feel 5930NF should be taken out and immediate target is 5940 and then I feel 5960


tomorrow IIP data
thursday 14th - Results: SBI, Tata motors, DLF.... and CPI inflation data

need action soon.


I was expecting the market to test 5860 or so, either today or tomorrow (it was just an expectation as per my pivots levels)....it hasn't happened today....so, let's wait and see how tomorrow's session will be.... Smile
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skd2012
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Post: #329   PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 3:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
We are making IB today! Is this a reversal sign or just a halt. I feel just a halt as of now.

Since IB, making extremely range bound move. Individual stocks are doing good.
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apka
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Post: #330   PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 3:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
psalm wrote:
apka wrote:
vinay28 wrote:
I feel 5930NF should be taken out and immediate target is 5940 and then I feel 5960


tomorrow IIP data
thursday 14th - Results: SBI, Tata motors, DLF.... and CPI inflation data

need action soon.


I was expecting the market to test 5860 or so, either today or tomorrow (it was just an expectation as per my pivots levels)....it hasn't happened today....so, let's wait and see how tomorrow's session will be.... Smile


possible tomorrow, spot made new low today.
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