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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
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Post: #331  Posted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 7:28 pm Post subject: |
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| apka, sometimes a lower low is better if you get a +ve div in rsi, which I feel has appeared in lower tf as well as in cci on daily. |
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skd2012
Yellow Belt
Joined: 03 Oct 2012
Posts: 948
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| Post: #332 Posted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 9:46 pm Post subject: |
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apka, normally people are discussing about gaining from direction movements (short or long). Methods are also discussed as per that as well. So I thought why not people discuss about methods or even trades which can give money when price move in a range. Or is it not worth?
How it would it be a trade if taken today and NIFTY goes up 75 points and fall 125 points over a few days. The trade remains in profit all through.
For example short strangle or short straddle, or even only writing only one leg or Iron Condor etc. But I am no expert.
Whatever we do, option writing will be core part of it. It seems low risk returns are possible in this way.
But our mind will always work for long short. 
Anyway, I have not understood rational behind your call buying for small profit. If you can explain, it appears to be risky if you do it regularly.
Your other trade of option buying after a big move when price returns to ATR makes more sense scalp. |
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apka
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Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #333 Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2013 12:11 am Post subject: |
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| sw_das wrote: | apka, normally people are discussing about gaining from direction movements (short or long). Methods are also discussed as per that as well. So I thought why not people discuss about methods or even trades which can give money when price move in a range. Or is it not worth?
How it would it be a trade if taken today and NIFTY goes up 75 points and fall 125 points over a few days. The trade remains in profit all through.
For example short strangle or short straddle, or even only writing only one leg or Iron Condor etc. But I am no expert.
Whatever we do, option writing will be core part of it. It seems low risk returns are possible in this way.
But our mind will always work for long short.
Anyway, I have not understood rational behind your call buying for small profit. If you can explain, it appears to be risky if you do it regularly.
Your other trade of option buying after a big move when price returns to ATR makes more sense scalp. |
ok though im still not clear what trades u mean apart from regular long short. Maybe exampe of a trade would help.
Yes my mrngs trade was risky for the qtys i traded but calculative on few things which convince me:
1. 5880-5885 is not a weak support to break immediately i expected bounce 2-3 times before it broke. A retest of it i expected after frudays fall. And 4-5 points bounce is enough for the qty in options i traded.
2. 5900pe saw no short covering by writers despite adding 10 lakh new shares on friday even after 40 point fall. So this convinced me to see a bounce again in mrng.
3. Fut kept bouncing from 5907-8 in mrng from the price where sgx had closed on friday.
When 2-3 points suggest a support or resistence i enter for quick trades in bulk. My points may look illogical or not enough reasons to back my trade. But for doing quick trades i find these sufficient.
Now tuesday is a new day and we made new spot low today so i would not buy call again at the same level 38. I will wait n watch. |
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apka
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| Post: #334 Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2013 12:17 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | apka, sometimes a lower low is better if you get a +ve div in rsi, which I feel has appeared in lower tf as well as in cci on daily. |
ok. Yes it can result in immediate bounceback. Just not incase of opto  |
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skd2012
Yellow Belt
Joined: 03 Oct 2012
Posts: 948
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| Post: #335 Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2013 8:33 am Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | sw_das wrote: | apka, normally people are discussing about gaining from direction movements (short or long). Methods are also discussed as per that as well. So I thought why not people discuss about methods or even trades which can give money when price move in a range. Or is it not worth?
How it would it be a trade if taken today and NIFTY goes up 75 points and fall 125 points over a few days. The trade remains in profit all through.
For example short strangle or short straddle, or even only writing only one leg or Iron Condor etc. But I am no expert.
Whatever we do, option writing will be core part of it. It seems low risk returns are possible in this way.
But our mind will always work for long short.
Anyway, I have not understood rational behind your call buying for small profit. If you can explain, it appears to be risky if you do it regularly.
Your other trade of option buying after a big move when price returns to ATR makes more sense scalp. |
ok though im still not clear what trades u mean apart from regular long short. Maybe exampe of a trade would help.
Yes my mrngs trade was risky for the qtys i traded but calculative on few things which convince me:
1. 5880-5885 is not a weak support to break immediately i expected bounce 2-3 times before it broke. A retest of it i expected after frudays fall. And 4-5 points bounce is enough for the qty in options i traded.
2. 5900pe saw no short covering by writers despite adding 10 lakh new shares on friday even after 40 point fall. So this convinced me to see a bounce again in mrng.
3. Fut kept bouncing from 5907-8 in mrng from the price where sgx had closed on friday.
When 2-3 points suggest a support or resistence i enter for quick trades in bulk. My points may look illogical or not enough reasons to back my trade. But for doing quick trades i find these sufficient.
Now tuesday is a new day and we made new spot low today so i would not buy call again at the same level 38. I will wait n watch. |
For example if one write 5900 CALL & PUT pair today, can again 30-40 points by this weekend. It can do even if market goes up 75 points and then fall 125 points (just an arbitrary example).
If one is not sure for next one week but sure price can go up in 15 days -
Write 5900 Feb call and buy 5900 March call, can give benefit without being absolute bullish, the same goes for short.
Instead of going long if one sell 5900 PUT and buy 5800 PUT, one can be adequately protected but at the same time will give power of holding. Though it is bullish thing, can be converted to neutral one later.
These are only a few examples out of many possible ways. |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
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| Post: #336 Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2013 8:36 am Post subject: |
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| one way is to write 5900pe/6100ce for feb |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #337 Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2013 9:18 am Post subject: |
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Again, many of the Asian markets are closed for the day. But as usual, Nikkei is going up today as well (LOL) after some comments by BOJ and Prime Minister Abe that "they'll try everything to create some inflation". Anyway, Yen has weakened further after that comment and is now testing the crucial 95-95.5 area, above that there is chance of it testing 103-105 area. Dollar index is looking a bit stretched now. I was expecting the Dollar Index to test 81 or so. Though the chances are there to reach that target either today or tomorrow, the chances are not that bright. By the way, just saw reports of an Earthquake in Korea a while back. I don't know if it is a real one or some kinda Nuclear Test. South Korean Defence Ministry is saying that "it is indeed a Nuclear Test". If it is related to any Nuclear Test, that could affect the asian trade today.
Talking about our markets, we had a range-bound trading yesterday. There was weakness as we couldn't sustain at higher levels. However, selling was also pretty limited. In my opinion, we could be closer to some intermediate bottom. But yesterday's trade didn't suggest any kinda bottom forming, cos normally bottoms are formed with some panic selling. We didn't witness that either on friday or yesterday. That means it could happen today or tomorrow. Yes, it is a challenge for a trader looking to go LONG. However, one must take it as an opportunity with a bit of caution, I feel. Importantly, IIP data will be announced today around 11. That could be some trigger for a correction or bounce-back. It is also possible that thre could be some bounce-back and then we'll correct suddenly giving an impression that some kinda SELL-OFF is happening. By the way, I was expecting the market to test 5860-5850, as I had mentioned earlier. So, if it comes around those levels, one should seriously consider buying or exiting SHORTs, I feel. Having said that, if 5850 is taken out, then there could be some panic and in that case there is chance of testing 5812 or even 5780. So, in a sense, there is nothing wrong in being a bit cautious at these stage or even waiting for a confirmation of any reversal. But I'll still be buying even if the market goes to 5812 or so. My stoploss is 5780 on a closing basis. Let's wait and see how the trade pans out today and tomorrow.
NOTE: Watch out for the PSU banks. Most of them are around their long term supports. So, if there is some panic selling in them they could offer good opportunity today, I feel. Similarly, Capital Goods stocks are about to give a bounce-back, I feel. Watch out...
Regards,
SAM |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #338 Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2013 9:26 am Post subject: |
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| I have covered my INFY shorts now....though the sector as a whole is looking weak, I have covered it as part of my wider strategy....IT and Realty are the 2 sectors, which are not givign any positive signals....anyway, I'm still holding my Real Estate SHORTs, but exited IT SHORTs now.... |
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SP50
Brown Belt
Joined: 26 Nov 2010
Posts: 1615
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| Post: #339 Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2013 10:45 am Post subject: |
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| Unitech butchered!!!!! |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #340 Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2013 10:52 am Post subject: |
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| taxmann50 wrote: | | Unitech butchered!!!!! |
That's why suggested holding Real Estate shorts in the morning....  .....but some stocks are around key levels now...for example, if DLF doesn't hold 260, there could be further correction upto 240 odd levels...at the same time, around 260, it could be a trading buy with a tight stop....let's wait and see what the stock does around those levels...  |
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SP50
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Joined: 26 Nov 2010
Posts: 1615
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| Post: #341 Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2013 10:56 am Post subject: |
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| psalm wrote: | | taxmann50 wrote: | | Unitech butchered!!!!! |
That's why suggested holding Real Estate shorts in the morning.... .....but some stocks are around key levels now...for example, if DLF doesn't hold 260, there could be further correction upto 240 odd levels...at the same time, around 260, it could be a trading buy with a tight stop....let's wait and see what the stock does around those levels... |
Yes Sam, Realty was long due. Now I am looking at Banks because they are the next counter for the butchers. |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #342 Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2013 12:44 pm Post subject: |
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| The market may find some resistance in the range 5919-5931 (12 point range)......will do well if it starts trading above it, I feel.....else, I'm expecting a bit selling pressure around those levels....so, just watch out...current rate is around 5914 while the high made as of now is around 5917.... |
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psalm
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Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #343 Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2013 1:30 pm Post subject: |
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Nothing much to do with Nifty...but still sharing....just saw Dollar Index hitting a one month high (80.4 a while back while Gold is trading below 1644, just around its key support of 1642. If gone below 1642, it could be under pressure again, I feel. At the same time, it could be a good buy around these levels with a tight stop.... |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #344 Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2013 2:24 pm Post subject: |
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market may have bottomed out. When you don't get qty that yu are trying to buy, it shows. I feel reliance bhagega.
If it closes above 5920, we may see a gap up tmrw. |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #345 Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2013 2:55 pm Post subject: |
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In Europe some data will be out at around 3 PM. In my opinion, the market is still around the resistance zone....if the data is good and if the Europe goes up or at least show stability, we may test 5931 or so. At the same time, if the data is not so good, then Europe might react and then the resistance of 5930 might play here. By the way, if Nifty Future can CLOSE above 5931, I'll consider it as a good sign. So, let's wait and see where it closes.
NOTE: Tonight around 9pm there is a press conference by ECB chairman Draghi. Other than that there is not much data later today. However, there will be a lot of sensitive data coming out of Europe and the U.S tomorrow. |
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