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Nifty View February |
vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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Post: #571  Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2013 8:53 am Post subject: |
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| short one steve but I would prefer it <0.90 for some major bounceback. Let's see pcr eod. |
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SP50
Brown Belt
Joined: 26 Nov 2010
Posts: 1615
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| Post: #572 Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2013 9:37 am Post subject: |
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As long as ICICI, SBI and HDFC Bank remains positive chances are that market will go up or max flat.
Nifty short wont pay much.  |
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skd2012
Yellow Belt
Joined: 03 Oct 2012
Posts: 948
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| Post: #573 Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2013 9:59 am Post subject: |
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| Do not know it will go there or not, but NF can range upto 5840-50. |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #574 Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2013 10:29 am Post subject: |
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| vinay, i think pcr has been in 0.90s and market has been falling.... and when market was rising to 6100 that time pcr was near 1.1 |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #575 Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2013 10:38 am Post subject: |
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| VIX 15.90 (+0.66) |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #576 Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2013 10:45 am Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | vinay, i think pcr has been in 0.90s and market has been falling.... and when market was rising to 6100 that time pcr was near 1.1 |
apka, pcr went to 1.08 after nifty went to 6110. Some days before that it had reached 0.88. Also, there is some connection with VIX since a very low vix enables nifty to go up even at pcr closer to 1 also. |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #577 Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2013 10:59 am Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | VIX 15.90 (+0.66) |
The high made as of now is around 16.22.....a few days back, I had mentioned about the range 16-25-16.5 as a resistance range, for the VIX.....having said that if the VIX sustains above 16.25, I'll consider it as some kinda danger for the LONGs, especially a close above 16.2 or 16.25....anyway, let's wait and see what happens from here.....but this VIX is making my life difficult now.... ...
NOTE: A break below 5853, might signal further selling....in that case, I don't see too much support upto 5590 or so.....  |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #578 Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:04 am Post subject: |
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| Be careful with the LONGs.....this VIX is making me nervous.... ...keep some kinda trailing stops for your LONGs (at your cost or just below that)....just in case needed.... |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #579 Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:06 am Post subject: |
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@ vinay
ok.
@ sam
after next best support u see 5590  ... thats exciting |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #580 Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:16 am Post subject: |
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| 16.45 VIX (+1.21) |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #581 Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:19 am Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | @ vinay
ok.
@ sam
after next best support u see 5590 ... thats exciting |
Apka,
As per my studies, the last leg of this rally has started on 22nd of November 2012. The lowest point after that move has started is 5593, which happened on 23rd (next day). That means there was a 520 point rally from the 23rd November lows (5593 to 6112). We had retraced half of that (260 points from 6112) already when we reached around 5853 on friday. So, in my opinion, if we break below the recent lows of 5853, there is every chance of market testing 5593 or so. That's why said that "I don't see much support up to 5593 once we're broken below 5853". But even if we reach there, I don't know if it will be a straightline fall.....anyway, let's wait and see....but I'm prepared,  |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #582 Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:28 am Post subject: |
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sam, just because it retraced 50% doesn't mean it may retrace 100% if it goes below 5853. However, the gap at 5723 may be filled.
Also, rising vix will increase range of nifty by a % equal to sqrt of vix per month i.e. a bit above plus/minus 4%. |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #583 Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:37 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | sam, just because it retraced 50% doesn't mean it may retrace 100% if it goes below 5853. However, the gap at 5723 may be filled.
Also, rising vix will increase range of nifty by a % equal to sqrt of vix per month i.e. a bit above plus/minus 4%. |
Vinay, I was just mentioning that one should be cautious....that's why I suggested keeping some kinda stop....If I'm sure that the market will go down, then I would have suggested exiting......Even I'm holding my LONGs....hoping that this spike in VIX is just one off a thing.....something like a whipsaw....But if there is any selling pressure, we should be prepared...that's what I wanted to say.....
NOTE: For an optimist, let me tell you that in November at similar situation, the VIX spiked on 18th and 19th November....but on 19th it peaked out....incidentally, Nifty has bottomed out on 19th November......So, it can happen here......we may be forming some kinda bottom around 5850....but if it is not, then we must be prepared...I was just asking to be a bit cautious.....nothing else... |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #584 Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 am Post subject: |
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| agreed samji sir! |
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iakash
White Belt
Joined: 07 Mar 2012
Posts: 46
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| Post: #585 Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2013 12:10 pm Post subject: |
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| psalm wrote: | | Be careful with the LONGs.....this VIX is making me nervous.... ...keep some kinda trailing stops for your LONGs (at your cost or just below that)....just in case needed.... |
Hi Frnds,
I would like to add my little observation on VIX here. Hope its helpful to all...
Rising VIX need not always signal an end of a rally... Last Feb, Nifty kept rallying on increasing VIX.... check the image below... its just an observation... i don't know the reasons behind this behavior.. may be seniors here can explain better... |
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