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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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Post: #586  Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2013 12:15 pm Post subject: |
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| akash, market does go up as vix goes up from a very low value, upto a limit. But the range also increases as volatility goes up. |
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psalm
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Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #587 Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2013 12:17 pm Post subject: |
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| iakash wrote: | | psalm wrote: | Be careful with the LONGs.....this VIX is making me nervous....  ...keep some kinda trailing stops for your LONGs (at your cost or just below that)....just in case needed.... |
Hi Frnds,
I would like to add my little observation on VIX here. Hope its helpful to all...
Rising VIX need not always signal an end of a rally... Last Feb, Nifty kept rallying on increasing VIX.... check the image below... its just an observation... i don't know the reasons behind this behavior.. may be seniors here can explain better... |
Yes, you're absolutely right....we have discussed about it a few times here in this very thread about that....its not necessary that VIX and Market moves are inversely proportional....but VIX breaking out of the normal trend indicates something.....if that spike sustains for a week or at least for more than 2 days, then I'll consider it as some kinda signal of bearishness in the market....Anyway, let's wait and see what happens this time.....  |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
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| Post: #588 Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2013 12:21 pm Post subject: |
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| if vix crosses 18, it can go to 21 in short term |
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masa
White Belt
Joined: 06 Jan 2007
Posts: 162
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| Post: #589 Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2013 12:27 pm Post subject: |
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| My view. Today or Tomorrow, I will short once broke 5879 (for small profit), targets near major support as per shown in chart. Below major support than big fall ( Doesn't look as off now because expiry and budget). Above major support uptrend intact. |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #590 Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2013 12:34 pm Post subject: |
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If the market is bullish, then it will definitely close above 5920 or 5925 today....else, its anybody's game again.....means heightened uncertainty or no trend reversal yet....  |
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Vikas91
White Belt
Joined: 28 Nov 2012
Posts: 140
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| Post: #591 Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2013 12:46 pm Post subject: |
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| Can we call it DEAD CAT BOUNCE |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #592 Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2013 12:47 pm Post subject: |
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| One possibility I see is a rise to 5960-80-6000 till coming Wednesday and then fall to recent low or lower till next Tuesday. But slow rise/fall to eat premium of options. |
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iakash
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Joined: 07 Mar 2012
Posts: 46
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| Post: #593 Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2013 12:58 pm Post subject: |
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| psalm wrote: |
Yes, you're absolutely right....we have discussed about it a few times here in this very thread about that....its not necessary that VIX and Market moves are inversely proportional....but VIX breaking out of the normal trend indicates something.....if that spike sustains for a week or at least for more than 2 days, then I'll consider it as some kinda signal of bearishness in the market....Anyway, let's wait and see what happens this time..... |
Yes Sam, VIX has broken out of trendline... but has strong resistance near 16.5... so there's possibility that VIX might get stalled at 16.5 or start decreasing again...lets wait & watch |
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psalm
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Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #594 Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2013 12:59 pm Post subject: |
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| Vikas91 wrote: | | Can we call it DEAD CAT BOUNCE |
Its too early to take a call, I feel....Yes, we have broken below the trendline...but that doesn't mean that this upmove is just a "dead cat bounce"....if further buying happens (there is good CHANCE because of liquidity and upcoming budgets), then it is possible that we may go up further from here....If that is the case, then one will have to take a call at the higher levels....at the same time, if the recent low of 5850 or so is taken out, then I wont be surprised to see the market testing 5590 or so in a few month or two. |
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iakash
White Belt
Joined: 07 Mar 2012
Posts: 46
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| Post: #595 Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2013 1:02 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | akash, market does go up as vix goes up from a very low value, upto a limit. But the range also increases as volatility goes up. |
Yes Vinay, thats more important... as long as range increases, we will get good trades... doesn't matter on long or short side..... hope VIX crosses the resistance at 16.5 to keep rising up and up...  |
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Vikas91
White Belt
Joined: 28 Nov 2012
Posts: 140
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| Post: #596 Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2013 2:07 pm Post subject: |
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| 5918 NF hits Now NF 5925 to be watched |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #597 Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2013 2:24 pm Post subject: |
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| Market is almost at the highs of the day....trading around 5910 at this point of time. In my opinion, the range 5916-5935 will offer significant resistance. Let's wait and see if the market breaks above this range and sustains there either today or tomorrow.... |
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SP50
Brown Belt
Joined: 26 Nov 2010
Posts: 1615
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| Post: #598 Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2013 2:46 pm Post subject: |
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| psalm wrote: | | Market is almost at the highs of the day....trading around 5910 at this point of time. In my opinion, the range 5916-5935 will offer significant resistance. Let's wait and see if the market breaks above this range and sustains there either today or tomorrow.... |
Kicked down from the resistance.  |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #599 Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2013 2:52 pm Post subject: |
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| taxmann50 wrote: | | psalm wrote: | | Market is almost at the highs of the day....trading around 5910 at this point of time. In my opinion, the range 5916-5935 will offer significant resistance. Let's wait and see if the market breaks above this range and sustains there either today or tomorrow.... |
Kicked down from the resistance. |
yea...not able to sustain at higher levels....I'll have to say that the market is slightly struggling.....The next 2 days are gonna be pretty important.....if we doesn't go down too much from here by tomorrow's close, then there is still chance....but as of now, upmoves are getting sold into which is not a good sign.....anyway, let's wait and see.... |
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SP50
Brown Belt
Joined: 26 Nov 2010
Posts: 1615
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| Post: #600 Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2013 2:55 pm Post subject: |
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| psalm wrote: | | taxmann50 wrote: | | psalm wrote: | | Market is almost at the highs of the day....trading around 5910 at this point of time. In my opinion, the range 5916-5935 will offer significant resistance. Let's wait and see if the market breaks above this range and sustains there either today or tomorrow.... |
Kicked down from the resistance. |
yea...not able to sustain at higher levels....I'll have to say that the market is slightly struggling.....The next 2 days are gonna be pretty important.....if we doesn't go down too much from here by tomorrow's close, then there is still chance....but as of now, upmoves are getting sold into which is not a good sign.....anyway, let's wait and see.... |
Does not look we will close above 5900 this expiry, if that happens then it will definately close above 6000.
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