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Nifty View - Jan 2013 |
SANJUBABA
White Belt
Joined: 09 Jan 2008
Posts: 34
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Post: #1036  Posted: Tue Jan 29, 2013 11:27 pm Post subject: |
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NS 5 MIN 5 DAY CHARTS
NS TRADING IN CHANNEL PATTERN
VERY NEAR TO CHANNEL SUPPORT
POSSIBLY A BOUNCE MAY BE EXPECTED FROM SUPP
6076-82 IS RES RANGE AS SHOWN IN PINK LINE IF COULD NOT SUSTAIN ABV IT THEN WILL AGAIN RETEST LOWER T/L OF CHANNEL
ABV 6088 MAY MOVE FOR HIGHER HIGHS |
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SP50
Brown Belt
Joined: 26 Nov 2010
Posts: 1615
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| Post: #1037 Posted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 10:19 am Post subject: |
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Penultimate day of expiry but if one looks at the individual stock option premium it is still very high even for out of money option. One indication according to my understanding is these stocks will be flat or movement both way and premium erosion.
If market comes near 6000 its definate buy for expiry around 6100 level but not above 6100. This is my analysis lets see now what actually happens. |
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rsnerella
White Belt
Joined: 30 Jul 2008
Posts: 153
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| Post: #1038 Posted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 11:34 am Post subject: Nifty view - January |
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So far options data respected. Now February month range probably 5900/6000 to 6300. Too early to tell this, but range is this for February. We revisit if there is any violation. Adding a point here, if either side range break, then this range conditions fail and a trending move starts.
| rsnerella wrote: | | January month range probably 5800 to 6100 as per options data. |
Last edited by rsnerella on Wed Jan 30, 2013 11:57 am; edited 1 time in total |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #1039 Posted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 11:47 am Post subject: |
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| I wonder whether accumulation is going on while, at the same time, killing premium of 6100ce/pe. OR whether further fall is coming. |
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rsnerella
White Belt
Joined: 30 Jul 2008
Posts: 153
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| Post: #1040 Posted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 11:49 am Post subject: Nifty view - January |
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| A Zig Zag move 6052/6062/6048/6070 |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #1041 Posted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 12:05 pm Post subject: |
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I had mentioned yesterday about some big events happening on wednesday and Thursday....especially some sensitive data coming and then uncle Ben coming to the picture again. So, overall some serious stuff for a trader to handle. Looking at the technicals, as of now Nifty FUTURE has created a Harami in the daily charts (this could change towards the close though). Bollinger Bands are getting narrowed. Indicators are reaching make/break levels....all these are indicating some big moves in the offing. I don't know if it is on the UP or DOWN. I look for selling opportunities, as my bias is towards a correction. But I could get trapped soon, if something positive emerges from these two days.....Above all, tomorrow is the expiry and also will witness the close of the monthly candle...some there is nothing wrong in expecting some volatility, I feel....Let's wait and see what kinda game is in the offing....  |
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SP50
Brown Belt
Joined: 26 Nov 2010
Posts: 1615
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| Post: #1042 Posted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 12:12 pm Post subject: |
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| psalm wrote: | | I had mentioned yesterday about some big events happening on wednesday and Thursday....especially some sensitive data coming and then uncle Ben coming to the picture again. So, overall some serious stuff for a trader to handle. Looking at the technicals, as of now Nifty FUTURE has created a Harami in the daily charts (this could change towards the close though). Bollinger Bands are getting narrowed. Indicators are reaching make/break levels....all these are indicating some big moves in the offing. I don't know if it is on the UP or DOWN. I look for selling opportunities, as my bias is towards a correction. But I could get trapped soon, if something positive emerges from these two days.....Above all, tomorrow is the expiry and also will witness the close of the monthly candle...some there is nothing wrong in expecting some volatility, I feel....Let's wait and see what kinda game is in the offing.... |
What if the data is fudged to be good? |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #1043 Posted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 12:25 pm Post subject: |
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| taxmann50 wrote: | | psalm wrote: | | I had mentioned yesterday about some big events happening on wednesday and Thursday....especially some sensitive data coming and then uncle Ben coming to the picture again. So, overall some serious stuff for a trader to handle. Looking at the technicals, as of now Nifty FUTURE has created a Harami in the daily charts (this could change towards the close though). Bollinger Bands are getting narrowed. Indicators are reaching make/break levels....all these are indicating some big moves in the offing. I don't know if it is on the UP or DOWN. I look for selling opportunities, as my bias is towards a correction. But I could get trapped soon, if something positive emerges from these two days.....Above all, tomorrow is the expiry and also will witness the close of the monthly candle...some there is nothing wrong in expecting some volatility, I feel....Let's wait and see what kinda game is in the offing.... |
What if the data is fudged to be good? |
Taxmann, most of the data we (aam aadmi) encounter is always fudged to a certain extend.....I just don't use it for my trading.....but we should consider these events as they could affect our trades....how?..cos, these events could affect the sentiments of the traders especially retail traders......In that case there will be huge buying or selling (for a very small period of time) and hence good chance of triggering stoplosses....in those situations its pretty difficult to place AFFORDABLE stoplosses, (especially for us the retail traders).......for example if the data comes out of the U.S. is good...there is good chance that the market might test all time highs there.....the ATH is not far from the current levels...especially for DOW...but if it is a fudged one, you just need to look at technical indicators.....they'll tell you the undercurrent.....cos, the people who are aware of this may move against the trend and you can identify it from charts as some divergences or so...  |
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skd2012
Yellow Belt
Joined: 03 Oct 2012
Posts: 948
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| Post: #1044 Posted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 12:25 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | I wonder whether accumulation is going on while, at the same time, killing premium of 6100ce/pe. OR whether further fall is coming. |
It all depends on if it manage to hold on till 2nd half....then good jump can be seen..as of now 50-50...
Its been hard to catch NIFTY move correctly in this series.... |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #1045 Posted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 12:26 pm Post subject: |
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| psalm wrote: | | I had mentioned yesterday about some big events happening on wednesday and Thursday....especially some sensitive data coming and then uncle Ben coming to the picture again. So, overall some serious stuff for a trader to handle. Looking at the technicals, as of now Nifty FUTURE has created a Harami in the daily charts (this could change towards the close though). Bollinger Bands are getting narrowed. Indicators are reaching make/break levels....all these are indicating some big moves in the offing. I don't know if it is on the UP or DOWN. I look for selling opportunities, as my bias is towards a correction. But I could get trapped soon, if something positive emerges from these two days.....Above all, tomorrow is the expiry and also will witness the close of the monthly candle...some there is nothing wrong in expecting some volatility, I feel....Let's wait and see what kinda game is in the offing.... |
sam, pcr dropped from 1.13 to 1.03 yesterday. If it falls well below 1.0 today, we could see 200 point jump in 2 days |
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SP50
Brown Belt
Joined: 26 Nov 2010
Posts: 1615
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| Post: #1046 Posted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 12:27 pm Post subject: |
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| psalm wrote: | | taxmann50 wrote: | | psalm wrote: | | I had mentioned yesterday about some big events happening on wednesday and Thursday....especially some sensitive data coming and then uncle Ben coming to the picture again. So, overall some serious stuff for a trader to handle. Looking at the technicals, as of now Nifty FUTURE has created a Harami in the daily charts (this could change towards the close though). Bollinger Bands are getting narrowed. Indicators are reaching make/break levels....all these are indicating some big moves in the offing. I don't know if it is on the UP or DOWN. I look for selling opportunities, as my bias is towards a correction. But I could get trapped soon, if something positive emerges from these two days.....Above all, tomorrow is the expiry and also will witness the close of the monthly candle...some there is nothing wrong in expecting some volatility, I feel....Let's wait and see what kinda game is in the offing.... |
What if the data is fudged to be good? |
Taxmann, most of the data we (aam aadmi) encounter is always fudged to a certain extend.....I just don't use it for my trading.....but we should consider these events as they could affect our trades....how?..cos, these events could affect the sentiments of the traders especially retail traders......In that case there will be huge buying or selling (for a very small period of time) and hence good chance of triggering stoplosses....in those situations its pretty difficult to place AFFORDABLE stoplosses, (especially for us the retail traders).......for example if the data comes out of the U.S. is good...there is good chance that the market might test all time highs there.....the ATH is not far from the current levels...especially for DOW...but if it is a fudged one, you just need to look at technical indicators.....they'll tell you the undercurrent.....cos, the people who are aware of this may move against the trend and you can identify it from charts as some divergences or so... |
You are right and I was just wonderin that last night the Consumer confidence index fell sharply there yet there was not much response. Asian markets this morning was firing all cylinders. |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #1047 Posted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 12:32 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | psalm wrote: | | I had mentioned yesterday about some big events happening on wednesday and Thursday....especially some sensitive data coming and then uncle Ben coming to the picture again. So, overall some serious stuff for a trader to handle. Looking at the technicals, as of now Nifty FUTURE has created a Harami in the daily charts (this could change towards the close though). Bollinger Bands are getting narrowed. Indicators are reaching make/break levels....all these are indicating some big moves in the offing. I don't know if it is on the UP or DOWN. I look for selling opportunities, as my bias is towards a correction. But I could get trapped soon, if something positive emerges from these two days.....Above all, tomorrow is the expiry and also will witness the close of the monthly candle...some there is nothing wrong in expecting some volatility, I feel....Let's wait and see what kinda game is in the offing.... |
sam, pcr dropped from 1.13 to 1.03 yesterday. If it falls well below 1.0 today, we could see 200 point jump in 2 days |
It is possible, Vinay...but after considering all the factors, I'm really hesitant to go LONG overall.....but the market could just continue going up trapping the hesitant (read retailer) bears like me....there will be a time when no bears will be brave enough to SHORT...  ...the market may crash at that time.....it is very much possible....but going LONG looks riskier than going SHORT according to me.....you may have a different view, for sure....so, let's wait and see what exactly happens in the next few days....  |
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pkholla
Black Belt
Joined: 04 Nov 2010
Posts: 2890
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| Post: #1048 Posted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 12:40 pm Post subject: |
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Sam: Perhaps you should wear a bull costume and dark glasses on top of your bear skin! (Shades of Red Riding Hood) Fool everyone incl. FIIs, bulls, bears and IC correspondents! Regards, Prakash Holla
PS I am not worried by Index bull, bear or BS as my positional Indhotel short looks like coming home to roost. Jai Hind!!!!
PPS Your Index comments really helpful to plan the next short. Thanks a lot! |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #1049 Posted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 12:50 pm Post subject: |
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| pkholla wrote: | | Sam: Perhaps you should wear a bull costume and dark glasses on top of your bear skin! (Shades of Red Riding Hood) Fool everyone incl. FIIs, bulls, bears and IC correspondents! Regards, Prakash Holla |
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skd2012
Yellow Belt
Joined: 03 Oct 2012
Posts: 948
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| Post: #1050 Posted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 12:59 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | psalm wrote: | | I had mentioned yesterday about some big events happening on wednesday and Thursday....especially some sensitive data coming and then uncle Ben coming to the picture again. So, overall some serious stuff for a trader to handle. Looking at the technicals, as of now Nifty FUTURE has created a Harami in the daily charts (this could change towards the close though). Bollinger Bands are getting narrowed. Indicators are reaching make/break levels....all these are indicating some big moves in the offing. I don't know if it is on the UP or DOWN. I look for selling opportunities, as my bias is towards a correction. But I could get trapped soon, if something positive emerges from these two days.....Above all, tomorrow is the expiry and also will witness the close of the monthly candle...some there is nothing wrong in expecting some volatility, I feel....Let's wait and see what kinda game is in the offing.... |
sam, pcr dropped from 1.13 to 1.03 yesterday. If it falls well below 1.0 today, we could see 200 point jump in 2 days |
that seems to be too much....50-70 points are fine if at all it comes |
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