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Nifty View - Jan 2013 |
vinay28
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Post: #916  Posted: Sun Jan 27, 2013 5:17 pm Post subject: |
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Also, as mentioned earlier, if Jan closes above 6139, it will be the highest monthly close ever. In such a case we may also see weekly/daily highest close of 6312 and intraday highest of 6357 taken out in Feb itself.
Nifty reacting from 6101 last week along with big reaction in mid/small caps may (just may) suggest consolidation and that rate cut may come and nifty may rally in Feb, though I personally feel RBI policy may be immateral in the larger scheme of FIIs.
Here's something more intertesting. The highest ever havala was 6079.50 (someone needs to reconfirm). This means the trigger I mentioned above for a sharp upward rally is at lower level. But, there can't be a 60 discount, which is required for both closing at those values, which means if Jan closes above 6139NS, it will be much higher closing for havala. Otherwise, only havala may be broken but not NS. |
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psalm
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| Post: #917 Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 9:50 am Post subject: |
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For the day, I don't see any serious weakness in our markets until 12 noon or even till around 1PM. If there is any weakness to set in, it could come only after 1'O Clock, I feel. Major levels, I'll be watching on the upside for the next 2 days are 6107 / 6135-6155 (20 point range) and then around 6177-81 levels. I have a feeling that we might see a top either today or tomorrow and then we'll go down. If there is a rate-cut, tomorrow could be that day. However, if there isn't any rate-cut tomorrow, today's highs or the recent highs (whichever is higher) may not be taken out, I believe. This is just my hypothesis. So, let's wait and see what's in store for us.  |
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apka
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| Post: #918 Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 10:04 am Post subject: |
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| citing the expectation on rate cut.... IF there is no rate cut, what in that case you all expect nifty to do ? |
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SP50
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| Post: #919 Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 10:07 am Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | citing the expectation on rate cut.... IF there is no rate cut, what in that case you all expect nifty to do ? |
I still feel we will close above 6000 for Jan Expiry if there is no rate cut.  |
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psalm
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| Post: #920 Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 10:20 am Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | citing the expectation on rate cut.... IF there is no rate cut, what in that case you all expect nifty to do ? |
If there is no rate-cut tomorrow, my suggestion is to sell the rate-sensitives.......that too aggressively.....I'm already bearish on them in the medium term....I'm finding it really hard to resist myself from selling rate sensitives....cos, I'm just waiting for the rate-cut decision to do some trades.......I have a feeling that they could go down even if there is a small rate-cut.......SBI, ICICI and all are giving signs of tiredness. ICICI could go down towards 1000 again in a few days, I feel. Similarly SBI could very much go down to 2300 levels or even lower after testing 2550-60 area or slightly higher levels again. Similarly real estate stocks are around their long term resistances.....they look like excellent SELLs....so, in my opinion rate sensitives could be excellent SELL soon....irrespective of the overall market conditions.....so, Selling rate sensitives appear to be a safe bet...especially if there isn't any rate cut tomorrow....that's what I feel... |
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SP50
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| Post: #921 Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 10:36 am Post subject: |
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| psalm wrote: | | apka wrote: | | citing the expectation on rate cut.... IF there is no rate cut, what in that case you all expect nifty to do ? |
If there is no rate-cut tomorrow, my suggestion is to sell the rate-sensitives.......that too aggressively.....I'm already bearish on them in the medium term....I'm finding it really hard to resist myself from selling rate sensitives....cos, I'm just waiting for the rate-cut decision to do some trades.......I have a feeling that they could go down even if there is a small rate-cut.......SBI, ICICI and all are giving signs of tiredness. ICICI could go down towards 1000 again in a few days, I feel. Similarly SBI could very much go down to 2300 levels or even lower after testing 2550-60 area or slightly higher levels again. Similarly real estate stocks are around their long term resistances.....they look like excellent SELLs....so, in my opinion rate sensitives could be excellent SELL soon....irrespective of the overall market conditions.....so, Selling rate sensitives appear to be a safe bet...especially if there isn't any rate cut tomorrow....that's what I feel... |
People are scared to sell or go short and this is the result of the pullback of friday.  |
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vinay28
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| Post: #922 Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 10:40 am Post subject: |
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| if I were you, I will not trade tmrw at all. at the most I may carry a small long, if any, to sell initially if 25 bps cut comes as nifty may react after that. |
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apka
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| Post: #923 Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 10:50 am Post subject: |
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1) Statements by subbu -- Inflation still high, no room for fiscal or monetary stimulus. We are here to cut risks not take risks. Consumers must spend less on food.
2) Inflation -- will rise with diesel hikes coming every month. Potatoes and onion prices are set to rise upto Rs.10 per KG since train fares have gone up as per news.
Against above, everyone on TV is saying expectation is for rate cut and are giving calls based on that... seems everyone has forgotten what subbu's role is and are mixing it with a govt body which is in mode of giving reforms.
I would be carrying short tomorrow. |
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psalm
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| Post: #924 Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 10:58 am Post subject: |
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Reliance is one stock which not doing any favour for the index at this point of time. It is trading around its key support range of 890-900 area. If the stock starts closing below 900 levels. there is every chance of it to test 835 or lower levels. However, the stock should test 920-925 area again, I feel; even if it becomes weak. So, levels around 895 or so could be a good area to buy it for a LONG trade, I feel....with a stoploss of 5 or 6 rupees....if the stock goes up and tests 920-925 area, it will definitely help the index.....so, watch out...  |
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pkholla
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| Post: #925 Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 11:00 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | if I were you, I will not trade tmrw at all. at the most I may carry a small long, if any, to sell initially if 25 bps cut comes as nifty may react after that. |
Vinay: Why trade NF today? Kisko chahiye NF? Esp not when it is moving like snake after 4/5 pegs desi!!!!
Just shorted 500 Maruti 1631.5---1624.5 . {Broker+ Fin Min} made 1k, I made 2.5 K, both Ranga Khush
Jai Hind, Prakash Holla |
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SP50
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Joined: 26 Nov 2010
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| Post: #926 Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 11:05 am Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | 1) Statements by subbu -- Inflation still high, no room for fiscal or monetary stimulus. We are here to cut risks not take risks. Consumers must spend less on food.
2) Inflation -- will rise with diesel hikes coming every month. Potatoes and onion prices are set to rise upto Rs.10 per KG since train fares have gone up as per news.
Against above, everyone on TV is saying expectation is for rate cut and are giving calls based on that... seems everyone has forgotten what subbu's role is and are mixing it with a govt body which is in mode of giving reforms.
I would be carrying short tomorrow. |
Who knows if Subbu has already compromised? either cut rate or we cut ur ____ thats what the FM must have told him. This is abuse of position by the rulers and if you see history of our country, the erstwhile rulers sold our country to the FII all the time. India loves FIIs, now and always. |
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psalm
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Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #927 Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 11:06 am Post subject: |
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| pkholla wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | if I were you, I will not trade tmrw at all. at the most I may carry a small long, if any, to sell initially if 25 bps cut comes as nifty may react after that. |
Vinay: Why trade NF today? Kisko chahiye NF? Esp not when it is moving like snake after 4/5 pegs desi!!!!
Just shorted 500 Maruti 1631.5---1624.5 . {Broker+ Fin Min} made 1k, I made 2.5 K, both Ranga Khush
Jai Hind, Prakash Holla |
Some days back I had given a sell recommendation on Maruti (around 1600) exactly the day it made its recent highs....the stock went down to around 1480 levels and then bounced back....now it is trading above a key resistance range of 1600-1620 area. As long as it trades above this range, there is good chance of it testing 1660 or even 1690-1700 area. So, beware of maruti around these levels...better to sell it at higher levels or else below 1600 levels if it sustains below 1600 levels.... |
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apka
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Joined: 13 Dec 2011
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| Post: #928 Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 11:08 am Post subject: |
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| taxmann50 wrote: | | apka wrote: | 1) Statements by subbu -- Inflation still high, no room for fiscal or monetary stimulus. We are here to cut risks not take risks. Consumers must spend less on food.
2) Inflation -- will rise with diesel hikes coming every month. Potatoes and onion prices are set to rise upto Rs.10 per KG since train fares have gone up as per news.
Against above, everyone on TV is saying expectation is for rate cut and are giving calls based on that... seems everyone has forgotten what subbu's role is and are mixing it with a govt body which is in mode of giving reforms.
I would be carrying short tomorrow. |
Who knows if Subbu has already compromised? either cut rate or we cut ur ____ thats what the FM must have told him. This is abuse of position by the rulers and if you see history of our country, the erstwhile rulers sold our country to the FII all the time. India loves FIIs, now and always. |
if such were the case, subbu would resign i guess...
Premium in nifty gone, no long run buying rally... instead call for rate cut exptecations.. building ppl interest to go long at a time when longs are drying .. perfect setup |
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SP50
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Joined: 26 Nov 2010
Posts: 1615
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| Post: #929 Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 11:24 am Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | taxmann50 wrote: | | apka wrote: | 1) Statements by subbu -- Inflation still high, no room for fiscal or monetary stimulus. We are here to cut risks not take risks. Consumers must spend less on food.
2) Inflation -- will rise with diesel hikes coming every month. Potatoes and onion prices are set to rise upto Rs.10 per KG since train fares have gone up as per news.
Against above, everyone on TV is saying expectation is for rate cut and are giving calls based on that... seems everyone has forgotten what subbu's role is and are mixing it with a govt body which is in mode of giving reforms.
I would be carrying short tomorrow. |
Who knows if Subbu has already compromised? either cut rate or we cut ur ____ thats what the FM must have told him. This is abuse of position by the rulers and if you see history of our country, the erstwhile rulers sold our country to the FII all the time. India loves FIIs, now and always. |
if such were the case, subbu would resign i guess...
Premium in nifty gone, no long run buying rally... instead call for rate cut exptecations.. building ppl interest to go long at a time when longs are
drying .. perfect setup |
Apka just be aware that this buy based on expectation is solely by FII and not retail or DII so there is some strong inside news behind this. We will all rejoice if there is no rate cut and market goes down but lets not be blinded and chalk out strategy what to do if the rate cut really happens.
Even if rate cut does not happen FII will still buy and will dump off the holdings when people will be least expecting them to. They have money to buy profits in the market. |
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apka
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Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #930 Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 11:33 am Post subject: |
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| taxmann50 wrote: | Apka just be aware that this buy based on expectation is solely by FII and not retail or DII so there is some strong inside news behind this. We will all rejoice if there is no rate cut and market goes down but lets not be blinded and chalk out strategy what to do if the rate cut really happens.
Even if rate cut does not happen FII will still buy and will dump off the holdings when people will be least expecting them to. They have money to buy profits in the market. |
they have always expected a rate cut.. and this time every brokerage house has taken up the same tune and is giving long calls.
so i will go short with some sl.. atleast i will not go long tomorrow. |
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