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Nifty View - Jan 2013 |
psalm
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Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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Post: #931  Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 11:44 am Post subject: |
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Last week, we were discussing about Japan and valuations of Yen going down drastically. On friday, USD/JPY has reached BOJ target of 91. Now there could be some correction in that pair, I feel. Nikkei has also gone down today after making a new high. So, my feeling is that Nikkei might have topped for the short term. In the medium term, there isn't much weakness there though. So, let's wait and see if there is a retest of today's highs in the next few days...  |
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psalm
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| Post: #932 Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 11:47 am Post subject: |
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| psalm wrote: | | Reliance is one stock which not doing any favour for the index at this point of time. It is trading around its key support range of 890-900 area. If the stock starts closing below 900 levels. there is every chance of it to test 835 or lower levels. However, the stock should test 920-925 area again, I feel; even if it becomes weak. So, levels around 895 or so could be a good area to buy it for a LONG trade, I feel....with a stoploss of 5 or 6 rupees....if the stock goes up and tests 920-925 area, it will definitely help the index.....so, watch out... |
bought one lot of reliance now.....let's see if it holds 890 levels and bounces back to test 920-25 range....by the way, will exit this position if it goes below 990 |
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apka
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| Post: #933 Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 11:49 am Post subject: |
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weakness in yen has resulted in gain for maruti stock, i never looked at it before that way. UBS giving buy call on maruti due to yen weakness.
if yen improves/apreciates, does it affect dollar index? |
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SP50
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Joined: 26 Nov 2010
Posts: 1615
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| Post: #934 Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 11:51 am Post subject: |
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| psalm wrote: | | psalm wrote: | | Reliance is one stock which not doing any favour for the index at this point of time. It is trading around its key support range of 890-900 area. If the stock starts closing below 900 levels. there is every chance of it to test 835 or lower levels. However, the stock should test 920-925 area again, I feel; even if it becomes weak. So, levels around 895 or so could be a good area to buy it for a LONG trade, I feel....with a stoploss of 5 or 6 rupees....if the stock goes up and tests 920-925 area, it will definitely help the index.....so, watch out... |
bought one lot of reliance now.....let's see if it holds 890 levels and bounces back to test 920-25 range....by the way, will exit this position if it goes below 990 |
990 on Reliance? buttery fingers Sam  ,
I am holding shorts on reliance from 925 |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #935 Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 11:51 am Post subject: |
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| Nov havala indicated 6066NF as resistance. Hopefully that will become a support now. |
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SP50
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Joined: 26 Nov 2010
Posts: 1615
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| Post: #936 Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 11:53 am Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | weakness in yen has resulted in gain for maruti stock, i never looked at it before that way. UBS giving buy call on maruti due to yen weakness.
if yen improves/apreciates, does it affect dollar index? |
What a nexus between Maruti and YEN weakness, never thought that such can be a buying or selling signal for a stock... |
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psalm
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Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #937 Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 11:59 am Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | weakness in yen has resulted in gain for maruti stock, i never looked at it before that way. UBS giving buy call on maruti due to yen weakness.
if yen improves/apreciates, does it affect dollar index? |
Dollar index is calculated by checking the exchange rates of Dollar with a basket of currencies, Apka.....Yen has significant weightage....Having said that I'm not sure how exactly it is gonna affect the dollar index in the very short term...
Weakening of Yen will help maruti only if it lot of imports from Japan....or else, may be regarding the royalty to Suzuki or so.....I don't see any other reason by which the weakening could help Maruti.....  |
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psalm
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Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #938 Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 12:01 pm Post subject: |
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| taxmann50 wrote: | | psalm wrote: | | psalm wrote: | | Reliance is one stock which not doing any favour for the index at this point of time. It is trading around its key support range of 890-900 area. If the stock starts closing below 900 levels. there is every chance of it to test 835 or lower levels. However, the stock should test 920-925 area again, I feel; even if it becomes weak. So, levels around 895 or so could be a good area to buy it for a LONG trade, I feel....with a stoploss of 5 or 6 rupees....if the stock goes up and tests 920-925 area, it will definitely help the index.....so, watch out... |
bought one lot of reliance now.....let's see if it holds 890 levels and bounces back to test 920-25 range....by the way, will exit this position if it goes below 990 |
990 on Reliance? buttery fingers Sam ,
I am holding shorts on reliance from 925 |
hahaha...sorry i meant 890.....by the way, I'm also planning to initiate shorts in it around 920-925 if it goes there....else will think about initiating shorts below 880.... |
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psalm
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| Post: #939 Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 12:06 pm Post subject: |
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| psalm wrote: | | apka wrote: | weakness in yen has resulted in gain for maruti stock, i never looked at it before that way. UBS giving buy call on maruti due to yen weakness.
if yen improves/apreciates, does it affect dollar index? |
Dollar index is calculated by checking the exchange rates of Dollar with a basket of currencies, Apka.....Yen has significant weightage....Having said that I'm not sure how exactly it is gonna affect the dollar index in the very short term...
Weakening of Yen will help maruti only if it lot of imports from Japan....or else, may be regarding the royalty to Suzuki or so.....I don't see any other reason by which the weakening could help Maruti..... |
I have found an article which is 2 years old...but this article shows how maruti is related to YEN through its imports...but note that this is a very old article....just posted here to show the relationship of yen with maruti...
http://automotivehorizon.sulekha.com/maruti-to-further-increase-localisation-to-minimise_newsitem_1682 |
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apka
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| Post: #940 Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 12:09 pm Post subject: |
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| thanks sam. |
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pkholla
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Joined: 04 Nov 2010
Posts: 2890
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| Post: #941 Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 12:17 pm Post subject: |
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Sam: I fail to see how Yen weakness will help Maruti?
1 India co gives 5% royalty to Suzuki Japan based on INR revenue. How this is affected by JPY- $ rate?
2 Maruti Suzuki is the most advanced Japanese auto mfr with least imported content. When earthquake hit production in Toyota, Honda etc , Maruti alone not affected among Jap cos. esp as India co keeps buffer stock of key imported components
3 Buy call can only be valid if Maruti is speeding up Gujarat plant and gradually vacating troublesome Manasar factory thereafter (Just like Mamata will regret saying BYE BYE to Tata, foolish Haryanvi "thugs-politicians" will regret blackmail of Maruti
Rgds, Prakash Holla |
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psalm
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Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #942 Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 12:36 pm Post subject: |
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| pkholla wrote: | Sam: I fail to see how Yen weakness will help Maruti?
1 India co gives 5% royalty to Suzuki Japan based on INR revenue. How this is affected by JPY- $ rate?
2 Maruti Suzuki is the most advanced Japanese auto mfr with least imported content. When earthquake hit production in Toyota, Honda etc , Maruti alone not affected among Jap cos. esp as India co keeps buffer stock of key imported components
3 Buy call can only be valid if Maruti is speeding up Gujarat plant and gradually vacating troublesome Manasar factory thereafter (Just like Mamata will regret saying BYE BYE to Tata, foolish Haryanvi "thugs-politicians" will regret blackmail of Maruti
Rgds, Prakash Holla |
I have no clues how big this impact could be....my impression is that Maruti may be importing lion share of its parts from Japan.....otherwise, I don't see any reason...by the way, JPY was going down against almost all the currencies, Prakash.....it has been going down against rupee for the last 6 months or so after topping out in July last year....look at the weekly chart of JPY/INR pair... |
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vinay28
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| Post: #943 Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 12:39 pm Post subject: |
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| guys, maruti has to make payoffs to suzuki by way parts, profit sharing including dividends and royalty in Yen. So when yen goes down, maruti benefits. Even a schoolboy or illiterate union leader in Noida will tell you this. |
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psalm
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| Post: #944 Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 12:44 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | guys, maruti has to make payoffs to suzuki by way parts, profit sharing including dividends and royalty in Yen. So when yen goes down, maruti benefits. Even a schoolboy or illiterate union leader in Noida will tell you this. |
Vinay, what if the royalty is calculated as per rupee terms??....what's the role of Yen in that???/ |
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
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| Post: #945 Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 12:47 pm Post subject: |
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| no sam, it's always in yen and such payments are same for all firms as foreigners don't trust INR. That's how FIIs benefit by buying at weak INR and selling at strong INR, stock price being same. |
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