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Nifty View - Jan 2013 |
vinay28
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psalm
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Post: #962  Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 3:35 pm Post subject: |
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The candle formed today is very much similar to the one formed last Monday (21st Jan). Will tomorrow's candle be something similar to last Tuesday's candle?? Let's wait and watch.  |
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vinay28
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| Post: #963 Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 6:48 pm Post subject: |
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| psalm wrote: | | The candle formed today is very much similar to the one formed last Monday (21st Jan). Will tomorrow's candle be something similar to last Tuesday's candle?? Let's wait and watch. |
it's more like the candle on 3rd dec. |
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SP50
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Joined: 26 Nov 2010
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| Post: #964 Posted: Tue Jan 29, 2013 9:51 am Post subject: |
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| Is the policy scheduled at 11am? |
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saumya12
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| Post: #965 Posted: Tue Jan 29, 2013 9:58 am Post subject: |
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| yes |
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psalm
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| Post: #966 Posted: Tue Jan 29, 2013 10:05 am Post subject: |
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Banks are looking slightly dull at this point of time, not showing the exuberance they exhibited during the early part of yesterday's session. My analysis suggests that the chances of retesting the recent highs in banks are pretty high. For it to happen, there must be some positive surprises in the RBI policy, I feel. So, are we in for some surprises??? If there isn't any rate cuts, then its doom for the rate-sensitive stocks, I feel, especially for the PSU banks. If there is a 50 bps rate cut and the banks reacts in a positive way; then a good rally in the overall market cannot be ruled out. In my opinion, that will create a good platform for some correction (cos the sentiments will be bullish then). So, what's in store for us today??? Beginning of the end of the rally or onset of a correction??? Or will will it be another push towards the all time highs??..Let's wait and watch..  |
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SP50
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Joined: 26 Nov 2010
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| Post: #967 Posted: Tue Jan 29, 2013 10:08 am Post subject: |
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| psalm wrote: | | Banks are looking slightly dull at this point of time, not showing the exuberance they exhibited during the early part of yesterday's session. My analysis suggests that the chances of retesting the recent highs in banks are pretty high. For it to happen, there must be some positive surprises in the RBI policy, I feel. So, are we in for some surprises??? If there isn't any rate cuts, then its doom for the rate-sensitive stocks, I feel, especially for the PSU banks. If there is a 50 bps rate cut and the banks reacts in a positive way; then a good rally in the overall market cannot be ruled out. In my opinion, that will create a good platform for some correction (cos the sentiments will be bullish then). So, what's in store for us today??? Beginning of the end of the rally or onset of a correction??? Or will will it be another push towards the all time highs??..Let's wait and watch.. |
What are your positions at this point of time Sam? I am holding shorts in JP still and one long on banknifty. Am i in some danger? shall i move out? |
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vinay28
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| Post: #968 Posted: Tue Jan 29, 2013 10:09 am Post subject: |
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| I feel 25 bps cut then reaction and then up |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
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| Post: #969 Posted: Tue Jan 29, 2013 10:15 am Post subject: |
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| taxmann50 wrote: | | psalm wrote: | | Banks are looking slightly dull at this point of time, not showing the exuberance they exhibited during the early part of yesterday's session. My analysis suggests that the chances of retesting the recent highs in banks are pretty high. For it to happen, there must be some positive surprises in the RBI policy, I feel. So, are we in for some surprises??? If there isn't any rate cuts, then its doom for the rate-sensitive stocks, I feel, especially for the PSU banks. If there is a 50 bps rate cut and the banks reacts in a positive way; then a good rally in the overall market cannot be ruled out. In my opinion, that will create a good platform for some correction (cos the sentiments will be bullish then). So, what's in store for us today??? Beginning of the end of the rally or onset of a correction??? Or will will it be another push towards the all time highs??..Let's wait and watch.. |
What are your positions at this point of time Sam? I am holding shorts in JP still and one long on banknifty. Am i in some danger? shall i move out? |
Watch out with your BankNifty shorts, Taxmann.....other than that, there is nothing much to worry.....I feel....I don't have any position in index yet....the PUTs I were holding earlier were exited as the trailing stop got triggered a few days back....after that I was concentrating on stocks, as I didn't see much opportunity in index, especially since my trades were against the prevailing trend....  ...By the way, for JP, it will be difficult to break above 88/89 levels, I feel.... |
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SP50
Brown Belt
Joined: 26 Nov 2010
Posts: 1615
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| Post: #970 Posted: Tue Jan 29, 2013 10:19 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | I feel 25 bps cut then reaction and then up |
It can be but this is very straight forward, if there is a cut, be it 25 bps or 50bps market will rally another 100 odd points and on the opposite side if no rate cut then down we go. This is no bollywood movie climax |
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SP50
Brown Belt
Joined: 26 Nov 2010
Posts: 1615
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| Post: #971 Posted: Tue Jan 29, 2013 10:25 am Post subject: |
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| psalm wrote: | | taxmann50 wrote: | | psalm wrote: | | Banks are looking slightly dull at this point of time, not showing the exuberance they exhibited during the early part of yesterday's session. My analysis suggests that the chances of retesting the recent highs in banks are pretty high. For it to happen, there must be some positive surprises in the RBI policy, I feel. So, are we in for some surprises??? If there isn't any rate cuts, then its doom for the rate-sensitive stocks, I feel, especially for the PSU banks. If there is a 50 bps rate cut and the banks reacts in a positive way; then a good rally in the overall market cannot be ruled out. In my opinion, that will create a good platform for some correction (cos the sentiments will be bullish then). So, what's in store for us today??? Beginning of the end of the rally or onset of a correction??? Or will will it be another push towards the all time highs??..Let's wait and watch.. |
What are your positions at this point of time Sam? I am holding shorts in JP still and one long on banknifty. Am i in some danger? shall i move out? |
Watch out with your BankNifty shorts, Taxmann.....other than that, there is nothing much to worry.....I feel....I don't have any position in index yet....the PUTs I were holding earlier were exited as the trailing stop got triggered a few days back....after that I was concentrating on stocks, as I didn't see much opportunity in index, especially since my trades were against the prevailing trend.... ...By the way, for JP, it will be difficult to break above 88/89 levels, I feel.... |
I am long on Bank nifty Sam |
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psalm
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Joined: 12 Nov 2011
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| Post: #972 Posted: Tue Jan 29, 2013 10:29 am Post subject: |
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| taxmann50 wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | I feel 25 bps cut then reaction and then up |
It can be but this is very straight forward, if there is a cut, be it 25 bps or 50bps market will rally another 100 odd points and on the opposite side if no rate cut then down we go. This is no bollywood movie climax |
Taxmann, he has a point there.....he is anticipating a scenario where the market trapping the bears again.....if you look at globally, frustrating the bears seem to be major aim of institutions... ...if it is to continue it is possible that there could be a small dip which will invite all the bears (including me) waiting outside to initiate positions only to get killed by the raging bulls later.... .....so, it is a very much possible scenario....but my gut feeling suggests disappointment in policy...but my analysis suggests surprises.....so, I'm in a dilemma now....so, the only option is to wait....have read this quote from a book "“Better to be
out of a trade, wishing you were in it, than to be in a trade, wishing
you were out of it.”  |
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psalm
Black Belt
Joined: 12 Nov 2011
Posts: 5368
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| Post: #973 Posted: Tue Jan 29, 2013 10:31 am Post subject: |
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| taxmann50 wrote: |
I am long on Bank nifty Sam |
Do you really want to take a position in BankNifty before the announcement???... |
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SP50
Brown Belt
Joined: 26 Nov 2010
Posts: 1615
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| Post: #974 Posted: Tue Jan 29, 2013 10:32 am Post subject: |
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| psalm wrote: | | taxmann50 wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | I feel 25 bps cut then reaction and then up |
It can be but this is very straight forward, if there is a cut, be it 25 bps or 50bps market will rally another 100 odd points and on the opposite side if no rate cut then down we go. This is no bollywood movie climax |
Taxmann, he has a point there.....he is anticipating a scenario where the market trapping the bears again.....if you look at globally, frustrating the bears seem to be major aim of institutions... ...if it is to continue it is possible that there could be a small dip which will invite all the bears (including me) waiting outside to initiate positions only to get killed by the raging bulls later.... .....so, it is a very much possible scenario....but my gut feeling suggests disappointment in policy...but my analysis suggests surprises.....so, I'm in a dilemma now....so, the only option is to wait....have read this quote from a book "“Better to be
out of a trade, wishing you were in it, than to be in a trade, wishing
you were out of it.” |
Yes you are right, I am getting a feeling that there will be loss both ways so better to stay out. |
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pkholla
Black Belt
Joined: 04 Nov 2010
Posts: 2890
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| Post: #975 Posted: Tue Jan 29, 2013 10:48 am Post subject: |
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| taxmann50 wrote: | | .... a feeling that there will be loss both ways so better to stay out. |
Bilkul sahi, agdi barobar, saru che, right u r! Better to play the single scrips esp today and watch from "balcony seat" provided to us by IC, how NF drama unfolds! Cheers, Prakash Holla |
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