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Nifty View - January '15 Series |
riteshucha
Green Belt
Joined: 19 May 2012
Posts: 1292
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Post: #166  Posted: Thu Jan 22, 2015 1:27 pm Post subject: |
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| that explains why 8700 / 8600 pe are near highs and NF is almost 15 points away from low... |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #167 Posted: Thu Jan 22, 2015 7:09 pm Post subject: |
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This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.
Nifty for Friday (23/01/14) and beyond
Supports are at about 8754, 8734, 8721, 8707 and 8617 while resistances are at about 8782, 8802 and 8956. Previous unfilled gap on lower side is at about 8550. Two +WWs can give about 8781 (if above 8737) and 8831 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Two -WWs can give about 8646 (once below 8740) and 8596 (once below 8738 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A rising wedge break down can give about 8430 if nifty sustains below 8700.
Nifty made another all time high and also closed at an all time high above 8750 and continues to look bullish. There is a -ve div on lower TF and we may see some fall. Also, daily candle is a spinning top again, which can be bearish. In general, it is bullish above 8775 and bearish below 8727. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term, particularly the ECB meeting on Thursday evening and Greek elections on 25/01. |
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AjitS
White Belt
Joined: 21 Aug 2013
Posts: 138
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| Post: #168 Posted: Thu Jan 22, 2015 7:18 pm Post subject: |
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Vinay,
Perhaps a little too late question, but What Impact will the QE (Bond Buying) Program in Europe will have on our markets? |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #169 Posted: Fri Jan 23, 2015 7:59 am Post subject: |
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| AjitS wrote: | Vinay,
Perhaps a little too late question, but What Impact will the QE (Bond Buying) Program in Europe will have on our markets? |
IMHO, none in medium term. The bond buying will fizzle out as there are too many conditions. Markets may crack from mid March. |
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NU2013
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Joined: 18 Jul 2013
Posts: 104
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| Post: #170 Posted: Fri Jan 23, 2015 1:49 pm Post subject: |
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Vinay,
When do you think the market will start cracking?? Only from this expiry perspective.
Does it make sense to hold on to the calls or we should exit them?? Sold 50% of my 9000 CE at 20 bucks today!! |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #171 Posted: Fri Jan 23, 2015 8:28 pm Post subject: |
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| NU2013 wrote: | Vinay,
When do you think the market will start cracking?? Only from this expiry perspective.
Does it make sense to hold on to the calls or we should exit them?? Sold 50% of my 9000 CE at 20 bucks today!! |
NU, I too am confused. If you have read my post in the thread "The Market Mastermind", you will know why.
As of now, I feel both 8648/8960NF are possible in next 3 days though it may not expire at these levels. Therefore, I have both 8800ce/pe. Holding 9000ce is dicey but one never knows. May be you can shift to 8900ce.
Caution - Buying options in this expiry is very dicey due to high IVs. e.g. suppose expiry will be at 8960, then 8900ce will go to about 55. If it is near/above 55 now, one would be crazy to buy them. But 9000ce will become zero. |
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manojrp
White Belt
Joined: 14 Mar 2012
Posts: 432
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| Post: #172 Posted: Fri Jan 23, 2015 9:23 pm Post subject: |
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@vinay28 if NF touch 8648 whats approx rate/target of 8600pe
thanks
| vinay28 wrote: | | NU2013 wrote: | Vinay,
When do you think the market will start cracking?? Only from this expiry perspective.
Does it make sense to hold on to the calls or we should exit them?? Sold 50% of my 9000 CE at 20 bucks today!! |
NU, I too am confused. If you have read my post in the thread "The Market Mastermind", you will know why.
As of now, I feel both 8648/8960NF are possible in next 3 days though it may not expire at these levels. Therefore, I have both 8800ce/pe. Holding 9000ce is dicey but one never knows. May be you can shift to 8900ce.
Caution - Buying options in this expiry is very dicey due to high IVs. e.g. suppose expiry will be at 8960, then 8900ce will go to about 55. If it is near/above 55 now, one would be crazy to buy them. But 9000ce will become zero. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #173 Posted: Fri Jan 23, 2015 9:33 pm Post subject: |
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| manojrp wrote: | | @vinay28 if NF touch 8648 whats approx rate/target of 8600pe thanks |
from about 8595 and up, value of 8600 pe will be zero unless you feel it can come on tuesday.  |
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manojrp
White Belt
Joined: 14 Mar 2012
Posts: 432
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| Post: #174 Posted: Fri Jan 23, 2015 9:39 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | manojrp wrote: | | @vinay28 if NF touch 8648 whats approx rate/target of 8600pe thanks |
from about 8595 and up, value of 8600 pe will be zero unless you feel it can come on tuesday. |
thanks for quick reply
today i bot 8600 pe @ 15 and booked loss @ 7.40 now i feel i take correct decision
in feb nf 10000 possible ??? 
thanks |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #175 Posted: Fri Jan 23, 2015 9:50 pm Post subject: |
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| manojrp wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | manojrp wrote: | | @vinay28 if NF touch 8648 whats approx rate/target of 8600pe thanks |
from about 8595 and up, value of 8600 pe will be zero unless you feel it can come on tuesday. |
thanks for quick reply
today i bot 8600 pe @ 15 and booked loss @ 7.40 now i feel i take correct decision
in feb nf 10000 possible ???
thanks |
no manoj, I don't think so but then I am not God.
as of now I feel 9200 in feb and 9400 in march. let's see. |
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manojrp
White Belt
Joined: 14 Mar 2012
Posts: 432
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| Post: #176 Posted: Fri Jan 23, 2015 9:56 pm Post subject: |
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any stock future to buy for feb series
thanks
| vinay28 wrote: | | manojrp wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | manojrp wrote: | | @vinay28 if NF touch 8648 whats approx rate/target of 8600pe thanks |
from about 8595 and up, value of 8600 pe will be zero unless you feel it can come on tuesday. |
thanks for quick reply
today i bot 8600 pe @ 15 and booked loss @ 7.40 now i feel i take correct decision
in feb nf 10000 possible ???
thanks |
no manoj, I don't think so but then I am not God.
as of now I feel 9200 in feb and 9400 in march. let's see. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #177 Posted: Sat Jan 24, 2015 8:28 am Post subject: |
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Last time Obama visited India in Nov '10, nifty made an all time high, which it did not break for 4 years.  |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #178 Posted: Sat Jan 24, 2015 8:34 am Post subject: |
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| what a killjoy |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #179 Posted: Sat Jan 24, 2015 8:47 am Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | what a killjoy |
wahi to kam hai hamara! |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #180 Posted: Sat Jan 24, 2015 6:27 pm Post subject: |
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This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.
Nifty for Tuesday (27/01/14) and beyond
Supports are at about 8809, 8777, 8759, 8714 and 8798 while resistances are at about 8870, 8904, 8956 and 9005. Previous unfilled gap on lower side is at about 8761. A +WW can give about 8950 (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Four -WWs can give about 8796 (once below 8834), 8594/8525 (once below 8742) and 8540 (once below 8805) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A rising wedge break down can give about 8550 if nifty sustains below 8830.
Nifty made another all time high and also closed at an all time high above 8800 and continues to look bullish. There is a -ve div on higher TFs and we may see some fall soon. Also, daily candle is once an evening star cum spinning top again, which can be bearish. In general, it is bullish above 8867 and bearish below 8834. Breach of 8700 will cause more fall. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term, particularly the Greek elections on 25/01. Being a truncated expiry week, trade carefully. |
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