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Nifty View - January '15 Series
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Author Nifty View - January '15 Series
saurabhkurichh
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Joined: 30 Oct 2006
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Post: #271   PostPosted: Sun Feb 22, 2015 1:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vinay28 wrote:
As of Dec'14, FIIs hold 23% of our equity market and 47% of free float Vs. 15% and 36% in March '09. What will happen if budget is even slightly disappointing to them?




cant even imagine Crying or Very sad
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saurabhkurichh
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Joined: 30 Oct 2006
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Post: #272   PostPosted: Sun Feb 22, 2015 1:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

though a bit offtpoic but some possibilities in the budget

1. higher infra spending

2. renewable energy impetus

3. make in india guidelines

any thing from ur side ? Some changes in tax structure / capital gains from property etc to be changed ?

When is RBI meet ?
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
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Post: #273   PostPosted: Sun Feb 22, 2015 3:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

saurabhkurichh wrote:
though a bit offtpoic but some possibilities in the budget

1. higher infra spending

2. renewable energy impetus

3. make in india guidelines

any thing from ur side ? Some changes in tax structure / capital gains from property etc to be changed ?

When is RBI meet ?


IMHO, most likely is a major announcement interconnecting PSU banks with realty and energy sector. All three sectors may zoom. But if there is even the slightest doubt that some inputs to budget may have leaked then they may hold them back, only to be announced a couple of weeks later.
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vinay28
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Post: #274   PostPosted: Mon Feb 23, 2015 11:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Margins for Fut positions and option selling positions will be higher by extra 25% on 28/02. margins for overnight positions on 27/02 and 28/02 will also be higher.
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saurabhkurichh
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Post: #275   PostPosted: Mon Feb 23, 2015 1:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

thanks vinay for both ur posts. In the meanwhile :- nifty sideways. After budjet another factor affecting banks wud be the RBI policy
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vinay28
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Post: #276   PostPosted: Mon Feb 23, 2015 8:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Tuesday (24/02/14) and beyond

Supports are at about 8726, 8712, 8704 and 8653 while resistances are at about 8787, 8838, 8847, 8901, 8920 and 8956. A previously unfilled gap on lower side is at about 8711. Three +WWs can give about 8880/8925 (once above 8805) and 8964 (if above 8747) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three -WWs can give about 8709, 8593 and 8415 (if below 8835) (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A bullish flag can give higher level unless killed below 8700. A right angled, ascending broadening formation can give about 8700 .

Nifty fell sharply but just managed to close above the crucial level of 8750. However, further fall is likely unless it reverses sharply. Only a close above 8952 can take it to a new high. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term. Trade carefully as we can see wild swings due to rising vix in view of expiry and budget this week.
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saurabhkurichh
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Post: #277   PostPosted: Tue Feb 24, 2015 3:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Smile thanks vinay
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vinay28
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Post: #278   PostPosted: Tue Feb 24, 2015 8:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vinay28 wrote:
My Monthly early warning radar. TL, RSI, CCI and Money Flow Index are showing early signs of possible weakness emerging in future but I feel there is still some room for higher highs. A few things to note w.r.t. two charts attached.

1. If nifty doesn't cross 8,997 by 28/02 but rsi remains above 77.26 on monthly, we may see a medium term fall.

2. Target of AT BO is about 9,400 and perhaps more (10,420?) since BO volume was more than 4 year average.

3. Robert C Miner's calculation gives likely highs of about 9110/9506/10145 as of now. Likely lowest level in case of a break down is about 8,215 as of now.

4. Monthly R1/R2 are at about 9,182/9,555 and Weekly R1/R2 at about 8929/9051, both till 28/02.


As posted on 21/02, nifty did fall. If bullish trend is to continue, the fall of 187 points should suffice for next upmove from tmrw.
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AMBY
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Post: #279   PostPosted: Tue Feb 24, 2015 8:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

THANKS FOR EARLY WARNING. 2guns
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vinay28
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Post: #280   PostPosted: Tue Feb 24, 2015 8:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Wednesday (25/02/14) and beyond

Supports are at about 8725, 8715 and 8689 while resistances are at about 8781, 8800, 8837, 8847, 8901 and 8967 A previously unfilled gap on lower side is at about 8711. Three +WWs can give about 8804 (if above 8731) and 8912/59 (once above 8765) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three -WWs can give about 8704, 8575 and 8400 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now). A bullish flag can give higher level unless killed below 8700. A right angled, ascending broadening formation can give about 8700 .

Nifty fell again but recovered to close above the previous close i.e. again above the crucial level of 8750. Daily candle is a doji and there is a +ve div. Hence, some recovery is likely. Tuesday was a NR7 day and we may see a big move on Wednesday. It now appears that about 8800 and 8735 are BO/BD levels. First hint of bullishness is a close above 8834 but only a close above 8953 can take it to a new high. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term. Trade carefully as we can see wild swings due to rising vix in view of expiry and budget this week.
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riteshucha
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Post: #281   PostPosted: Wed Feb 25, 2015 10:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

8900 PE open high same at 115,
NS/NF may touch 8785/8790 on the downside (good buying area) .... SL below 8763
NF crossing above 8860, we may see 8900+ today only
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saurabhkurichh
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Post: #282   PostPosted: Wed Feb 25, 2015 11:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

over day high see it atleast touvhing 8935 around ( prev esistance )
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riteshucha
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Post: #283   PostPosted: Wed Feb 25, 2015 2:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

if it breaks 8763, go short...

riteshucha wrote:
8900 PE open high same at 115,
NS/NF may touch 8785/8790 on the downside (good buying area) .... SL below 8763
NF crossing above 8860, we may see 8900+ today only
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amitagg
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Joined: 01 Oct 2013
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Post: #284   PostPosted: Wed Feb 25, 2015 4:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

riteshucha wrote:
if it breaks 8763, go short...

riteshucha wrote:
8900 PE open high same at 115,
NS/NF may touch 8785/8790 on the downside (good buying area) .... SL below 8763
NF crossing above 8860, we may see 8900+ today only


30tf candle low which takes pivot 8763 (& previous close 8762) out should have been seen as usual or just tick chart....
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vinay28
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Post: #285   PostPosted: Thu Feb 26, 2015 8:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is just a personal view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade.

Nifty for Thursday (26/02/14) and beyond

Supports are at about 8732, 8726, 8717 and 8697 while resistances are at about 8787, 8822, 8847, 8876 and 8901. A previously unfilled gap on lower side is at about 8711. Six +WWs can give about 8840 (once above 8772), 8861 (if above 8725, which is yet to be reached), 8800/8890/9000 (if above 8756) and 8953 (if above 8743) (+WWs with higher targets are not mentioned as of now). Three -WWs can give about 8557, 8485 and 8372 (-WWs with lower targets are not mentioned as of now).

Nifty fell again after a gap up open but again closed above the previous close and above the crucial level of 8750. First hint of bullishness is a close above 8834 but only a close above 8953 can take it to a new high. A close below about 8700 may mean more fall. Global and local eco-political events can have a bearing on how nifty moves in short term. Trade carefully as we can see wild swings due to rising vix in view of today being an expiry day and budget this weekend.
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